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00:00President Trump doesn't want a piecemeal deal in Gaza. He wants a full deal to release all the

00:04remaining hostages and end the war at once. Axios says that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin

00:10Netanyahu has preferred to try and get a partial and incremental ceasefire and hostage deal done.

00:16Host of the Strat Podcast, Hal Kempfer, is still here. Hal, the White House wants a full deal.

00:22That resonates well on the streets of Tel Aviv, doesn't it?

00:25Oh, it resonates very well. Interestingly, Steve Witkoff went over there and sat down with

00:31hostage families and talked to him at length. And the report is that, you know, from Axios was that

00:37some of the family said, you know, Netanyahu and the Israeli government has never done something

00:43like that. Really listen to what they have to say. And of course, what the White House is saying was

00:48Steve Witkoff is saying, the presidential envoy is saying, look, we don't want a piecemeal deal.

00:52We don't want a 60-day ceasefire and get 10 hostages out. We want them all out at once.

00:56We want a permanent ceasefire. We want this thing done. And if you're looking at the protesters on

01:02the streets of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, they want all the hostages back yesterday. So yes,

01:08that resonates very well. Netanyahu, interestingly, you know, he's always trying to go for a piecemeal

01:14deal. And that was something else that came out that basically the White House acceded to an

01:20initiative by Israel. At least that's what it said. An idea, or not an idea, but a Netanyahu thing to go

01:27for a partial deal. And that is, of course, because Netanyahu is very reluctant to go for a full peace

01:34deal. And that's an internal political consideration. If he does a complete peace deal with whatever that

01:40entails, it is very likely, if not almost certain, to put a fissure in his coalition that keeps him in

01:48power. And if his coalition falls apart, then he's no longer, eventually he'll no longer be prime

01:54minister. He is, you know, basically facing courtroom challenges where he has, you know,

02:01indictments for corruption. And if he's not the sitting prime minister, they can go forward with

02:07that. And you can imagine what his future fate will be. So he's got some very strong personal

02:12reasons why he probably doesn't want to end this in a way that would damage him politically in such a,

02:21you know, such a decisive manner.

02:24In, uh, 665 days since the October 7th attack, it's believed there's 20 hostages still living in

02:34Gaza. These, as you've been looking at, and as you've been alluding to, are the protests that have

02:39become commonplace in Tel Aviv. We get live images basically every Saturday of these, uh, protests

02:44taking place in Hostage Square. Um, 665 days in captivity, Hal. Um, what have we learned about

02:53the conditions that these hostages are living in? No hostage will have the exact same story, but

02:58what have we learned from people that have returned alive?

03:02Absolutely horrible. The worst. Uh, you know, I, I, I've, I've been fortunate. I was never a

03:08prisoner of war or taken hostage. Although I did a lot of training, uh, where you go through that

03:14experience and, uh, what you're seeing there, the, they're being kept underground, uh, for the

03:20most part being hid in absolutely horrible conditions, uh, constantly mistreated, uh, grossly

03:28underfed. There was a couple of videos that came out last week, uh, with two hostages and they just

03:34looked in horrible condition. Uh, they'd obviously lost a tremendous amount of weight. And of course,

03:39the fear is every day that another hostage may, may die because of the, uh, just the, uh, you know,

03:47the lack of, uh, uh, a lack of sustenance and everything else that goes into that. And of course,

03:52mentally, psychologically, you can imagine if you've been trapped underground thinking that you could die

03:58at any moment for hundreds of days for, you know, uh, it just, it, it, it takes an enormous

04:06psychological, uh, mental toll, which will take an enormous amount of time once they're released

04:11to deal with, to turn around, to get them back to some level of normalcy. Uh, so it is, it is very

04:18bad. And there's a big reason why, um, the U S and others, uh, certainly those on the streets

04:24want to see all 20 remaining hostages released soon, uh, for their mental, uh, emotional,

04:32psychological, and also physical, uh, condition and to, uh, and to make sure that some who are alive

04:38today are still alive when the hostages are released. There's also a number of bodies of

04:44hostages, sadly, that haven't been returned either. That's another piece of the story. Um, this is our

04:49live look at Gaza. As I've been saying, just past midnight, there is real standard time.

04:53Hal, is it possible that in the near future, Netanyahu is going to have to change how he

04:58handles this war in a big way? Is the domestic and international pressure mounting in a way that

05:03we haven't seen? The pressure is mounting and really what to watch for is which way the White

05:09House is going. I don't, I don't see the White House suddenly shifting radically and suddenly agreeing

05:14with Prime Ministers Carney, Starmer, or, or to, uh, uh, or with President Macron over in France

05:21and say, I'm going to recognize the two state solution or something like that. I don't want

05:25to see something quite that radical, but what you are seeing is a distinct difference between what

05:31the White House wants to accomplish in Gaza and what Netanyahu has agreed to. Netanyahu came out

05:37today and said, he's going to make a decision on future military action in Gaza next week. He's

05:43basically just playing for time right now, but I think he's sensing that this is a schism that's

05:49growing between his position in the White House. And at some point he's going to have to come up

05:55with something rather substantial. Now, the thing I think that's changed that kind of, uh, if Netanyahu,

06:01it helps Netanyahu if, if he allows it to ever help him, if you will, is that the Arab League has said,

06:08look, Hamas has to be demilitarized. They cannot be in a governance role. Um, and, uh, basically are

06:15disarmed, I should say, and that, uh, a future Palestinian state should be demilitarized.

06:21And there's talk of using the Palestinian authority as a sub-sort of governance thing,

06:25although that would have to be a very different Palestinian authority to step up in a role that

06:29big. These are things that really, you know, take everything aside. Those are huge tectonic shifts

06:37in the politics of the Middle East. That is a road for things like normalizing relations between

06:44Saudi Arabia and Israel, if they want to go that direction. But Netanyahu's stuck. You know, he sees

06:51what he can do on the international stage. He sees what he probably could do to a certain extent with

06:57Gaza and the West Bank. But he also recognizes he's got this hard right coalition. And if he goes that

07:04direction, it may be the last thing he does as prime minister. Al Kemper is a retired marine

07:10intelligence officer, national security analyst, and the host of the Strat podcast. Hal, what's the

07:15latest on the Strat podcast? What's coming up on Strat? Well, thanks for asking. Uh, actually,

07:20I kind of dig into the missed warning signs of the shooting in New York City at Park Avenue and talk

07:25about basically what happened there. I kind of roll through what occurred, but also talk about, you

07:31know, some of the stuff behind see something, say something, and the importance of getting this into

07:36the system, the importance of being more proactive in stopping these things. And also a little

07:43bit more.

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