00:00Well, let's talk now to Emma Zhang, who's an Associate Professor of Sociology at Yale University in the United States.
00:06Good to have you on the program, Emma. Thanks for joining us.
00:09So what could this child care subsidy mean for China's low fertility rate?
00:15Thank you for having me. I think this subsidy is a meaningful signal.
00:19It shows the government is starting to take child-rearing costs very seriously.
00:23But let's be very honest, 3,600 yuan a year, which is about 10 yuan a day, barely covers a pack of diapers.
00:31It's not enough to change major life decisions.
00:34To really move the needle of fertility, families need long-term, large-scale support we can count on.
00:41So what are the biggest challenges, do you think, facing young families in China when they make that decision whether or not to have children?
00:48Well, one of the biggest challenges is the triple-squeeze young families' face, namely high housing prices, long working hours, and sky-high expectations for parenting.
01:02In many cities, raising a child means not just diapers and formula, but after-school tutoring, music lessons, and saving for future schooling.
01:11Many parents feel they need to be super parents just to keep up, and that pressure can make having a second child feel impossible.
01:19So do you think policies like this announcement of this child care subsidy can actually help shift people's attitudes towards having children?
01:28On their own, small subsidies won't move the needle.
01:33That gives research from other countries like France, Germany, and South Korea, show that while cash payments may lead to small, short-term increases in births, they rarely produce lasting changes in fertility rates.
01:46Without broader structural support, like affordable child care, housing, and job security, these effects tend to fade very quickly.
01:56Why?
01:57Because having a child is not a one-time expense.
02:00It's a 20-year commitment.
02:01What really shifts birth decisions is whether people feel secure.
02:06Can they afford housing?
02:07Keeping their jobs after having children?
02:11Giving their children a good future?
02:12Without long-term stability, no one-time subsidy welcomes people to have more children.
02:18So what kind of things have other countries done to try and encourage women to have more babies?
02:22While countries like France or Sweden didn't boost fertility with cash alone, they built entire ecosystems of support.
02:31What worked was a combination.
02:34Generous financial aid, yes, but also affordable high-quality child care, and parental leave that treats fathers as equal parents.
02:42When moms are forced to become Korean children, and fathers are expected to step up at home, people are certainly more willing to have children.
02:52Emma Zang from Yale University, thank you very much.
