Jones & Keefe: Is 32% a fair chance for the Patriots to make the playoffs this season?

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00:00According to ESPN Analytics, the team has a 32% chance to qualify, which is 12th in the AFC.

00:07So I hear 32%.

00:10I'm like, man, the Pats have a 1-3 chance at the playoffs.

00:12It's actually not terrible.

00:14No.

00:14Then I hear they're 12th in the AFC, and I don't love that.

00:16So I don't really know how to square those.

00:1812th in the AFC?

00:18Yeah, I don't know how to square those numbers.

00:20You have a 32% chance, and that's 12th in the conference?

00:23Well, they love parity.

00:24The league loves parity.

00:25So it probably does speak to that.

00:26But honestly, 32% sounds about right.

00:28People who act like this team has no chance at making the playoffs, I would point you to the Commanders a year ago.

00:33I would point you to the Texans the year before that.

00:37Like, one out of three honestly sounds about right.

00:39Is it likely or, you know, a greater than 50% chance they're making the playoffs?

00:43I wouldn't go that high.

00:45But I think they have a real shot at making the playoffs based on their schedule, based on Vrabel being here and play some mayo,

00:50and based on Drake May, what you think is going to be a step forward.

00:54And I would say this team should have a better chance than those previous two teams that you mentioned

00:58because those were really unknown rookie quarterbacks, right?

01:01Like, you didn't know how good Jaden Daniels was going to be.

01:03We didn't know how good C.J. Stroud was going to be.

01:05And even in the case of Houston, it was a first-time head coach.

01:08You're like, I don't really know what this combination is going to be.

01:10At least one day we have an idea.

01:11Yeah.

01:12And I also think the AFC East isn't going to be as good as maybe it has been in the previous years

01:17or as people might expect, like Jets and Dolphins.

01:21Like, I don't know how great they're going to be.

01:23Bills, sure.

01:24They'll be fine.

01:25But I think Mike Vrabel is sort of a known coach.

01:28And then you are kind of banking on a year-two jump from Drake May because it wasn't a perfect year.

01:35I think a lot of us kind of talk it up a little bit more than maybe it was.

01:39And there's still a lot of, you know, hope that he is going to be one of these great quarterbacks in the league.

01:45But I still just go back to the trash bag schedule.

01:50And also, Nick just told me, I don't know if it was on the year or not,

01:53but the 49ers and Saints are the two teams with worse.

01:56Oh, okay.

01:57And or better schedules.

01:5949ers have an easier schedule?

02:00Yeah, because the 49ers finish last.

02:02Yeah, and I think they still have, like, pretty good Super Bowl odds, I think, if you're looking forward.

02:06So that's probably part of why.

02:07So when we do our preseason predictions, those are two teams to keep an eye on.

02:10But the Saints and Niners were both last place finishers last year.

02:13But my point would be they have the easiest AFC schedule.

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