Jones & Keefe: The public is ALL OVER the Patriots this season

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00:00The most popular bet at ESPN bet, Keefe.

00:03Tell me if you feel good or bad about this.

00:05What sport?

00:05Football.

00:06Most popular bet is...

00:07So since the NFL schedule was released,

00:10the most popular bet on ESPN bet is Patriots over 8.5 wins.

00:15Wow.

00:16I think that's a bad sign.

00:18The whole public is saying...

00:20Buy an opportunity or a sucker's bet.

00:21No, that means it's a sucker.

00:23If the whole public's on it, it's a sucker's bet.

00:24Yeah, but 8.5...

00:25No, that's true.

00:26That's like the definition of a sucker's bet.

00:28Unless we all win.

00:30The number two bet, by the way, is Saints under 5.5.

00:33So that's another one to avoid.

00:34Stay away from the Saints.

00:36That's scary.

00:36The whole public's on the pats over 8.5.

00:38I knew we all were here in New England.

00:40So I guess...

00:40I don't like that.

00:41No.

00:42But again, we did the whole schedule thing,

00:45and you and I weren't just giving away wins,

00:48but based on the schedule, I had them at 10, you had them at 9.

00:52So before this even came out, we both just organically had the over.

00:56Yep.

00:56They're favored in 11 of them.

00:58Now, things change.

00:59Guys get hurt or whatever, but that works for both sides.

01:01So when they do the exercise, and you could argue whether, like,

01:04do you really need lines in May for every game in the season?

01:08But either way, you play that scenario out.

01:10They're the favorite in 11 of 17.

01:13So it's not like it's 10.5, and everyone's like,

01:16they're going to win every game they're favored in.

01:17Right.

01:17You have some margin for error.

01:18I have, like, so nine wins.

01:20You can lose two games that you're favored in and still hit the over.

01:22I'm with you.

01:23It's a little concerning.

01:25Everybody's on one thing.

01:27Betting with the public is how to lose.

01:28That's how I lose.

01:29But I still look at it and say,

01:31I have a hard time getting them to eight and nine or worse,

01:37which is what it would have to be.

01:39But you're right.

01:40There are a lot of people.

01:40Everybody's throwing out their win losses now,

01:42and almost everybody is over, right?

01:46I've not seen many.

01:48I haven't seen many others.

01:48Mostly 9, 10, and then there's a couple, like, goofy ones in the teens.

01:51But it's, like, 9, 10.

01:52I think a lot of people.

01:54Curran was on with us earlier.

01:55He has them at 10 as well.

01:57The schedule stinks.

01:58The schedule's really bad.

01:59It's a bad schedule.

02:00So maybe we're basing too much off of that.

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