00:00Lord Adair Turner is the chair of the Energy Transitions Commission.
00:04Great to have you on the programme again, Lord Turner.
00:07Let's talk about these EU climate targets, which are now weaker than initially planned, aren't they?
00:14What's going on?
00:17Well, I don't think they're much weaker. I think some of the reaction is overstated.
00:21I mean, the plan is that from the 1990 level by 2040, actual emissions in the EU have to come down 87 percent and that the final 3 percent to a 90 percent reduction could be purchased from other countries in international credits, as was always intended under what's called Article 6.
00:45But let's be clear, other countries don't have to sell those. I mean, they're completely free to them to sell them or not.
00:54The only countries which will sell them, I think, are ones which have the opportunities to drive not only reductions in their own country, but also further reductions that they can sell to others.
01:06And the particular type of credits that the EU Commission talks about are things like what's called direct air capture.
01:12So this could be places where renewable energy is going to be really cheap, like, say, North African deserts doing direct air capture.
01:22Now, it doesn't worry me if a very small amount of the EU reduction involves paying a desert country to achieve direct air capture.
01:33It may not occur because it may be the case that that's a rather expensive way to reduce emissions.
01:39At the moment, that would cost you two hundred dollars a tonne. And if that is the case, if that's very expensive, people won't choose to do it and they'll choose to do all of the 90 percent within Europe.
01:51So I think this idea that this is a major weakening, frankly, is not a well-placed argument.
01:58That's interesting. So, I mean, Europe is the world's fastest warming continent.
02:02What you're saying is you don't see this as governments retreating from their climate commitments.
02:07They're just looking at other ways of getting there.
02:10Yes, I think they've allowed a small flexibility which may or may not be used.
02:14And let's be clear, there are some countries which said they won't sell carbon credits.
02:19At the moment, India has said, insofar as we can do removals, we want all of those available to meet our targets.
02:26So India will say, well, European, you know, countries are allowed to buy these credits, which we're not selling them.
02:33And if all countries do that because they feel they don't have surplus removals to sell, there won't be any sales.
02:40You know, other countries are relying very heavily on assumed purchase of credits.
02:47New Zealand and Tokyo, Japan, very significant in their NDCs, their National Determined Contributions.
02:57This is a very small element and it will only be used if that is the cheapest way to get a removal.
03:04But let's be clear, this still commits the UK, Europe, to reducing its actual emissions within Europe itself 87% between from 1990 to 2040.
03:18And if it does that, that will be a very major reduction.
03:22And this last 3% will be Europe paying other countries to do it, if that is the cheapest way to achieve it.
03:30So you're saying that this commits Europe more solidly to achieving those net zero goals.
03:36But I want to talk about the time you spent in China.
03:38I wonder what you think the role of China is in the global energy transition and maybe what the rest of the world can do with the way they're doing it.
03:47Well, there are two big things to say about China and both are true.
03:50I mean, some people say, look, China is by far the biggest emitter in the world now.
03:56It now has higher per capita emissions than Europe.
03:59And if you look at all of China's likely future emissions from now till when it gets to its 2060 target, if it only peaks by 2030, that could be about 260 gigatons.
04:15Whereas Europe and the UK together will be about 35 gigatons.
04:20So as we debate, is Europe, you know, 90 percent or 87 percent by 2040, you know, that is like sort of half a gigaton either way on 35 gigatons versus China's 260 gigatons.
04:36So let's be clear whether or not the world deals with climate change hugely depends on China and to a much greater extent than it does on Europe.
04:45On the other hand, and this has to be said at exactly the same time, China is the brilliant developer of the low cost technologies, solar and batteries and electrolyzers and EVs, which will solve that problem.
05:00So whenever you talk about China, you've got to say this is the biggest emitter.
05:04Getting down Chinese emissions is going to be far more important to the future temperature than minor ups or down in what Europe does.
05:11Europe is much smaller under all conditions now.
05:15On the other hand, China is providing the technologies which can solve this problem and should be congratulated and welcomed for doing that.
