Analysis | Ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to hold - video Dailymotion

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We interview Arnold August, Canadian journalist and political analyst to provide his insight into the ceasefire between Israel, Iran and the U.S. which seems to be coming to fruition at the moment. teleSUR

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00:00And to keep analysing all the information that comes from the Middle East, we have a

00:05special guest from Canada at this moment, journalist and political analyst, Arnold August.

00:10Hi Arnold, welcome to From the South.

00:13Thank you very much, it's great to be in touch with you Alejandra.

00:17Although Israel, the United States and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire, it is still very

00:22soon to consider the conflict truly over, given the underlying tensions, is that your

00:27opinion?

00:28Yes, of course, Iran agreed, but we have to underline, in my view, that it was Israel,

00:40which was the country that offered to have a ceasefire, because they were losing very badly

00:46against Iran.

00:47Now, in terms of the current situation, to answer your question further, it's very difficult

00:53to analyse how this truce or whatever ceasefire will go through, because Trump, as you know,

01:02within one minute he could have three or four different views.

01:06just like today, he reiterated his position that the United States obliterated the nuclear

01:16areas of Iran.

01:18And a few hours later, under questioning from reporters in The Hague, where he is there,

01:23to take part in the NATO summit there, he said, well, we do not completely destroy it.

01:33You know, it may take some while, a while, and we have to do further investigation.

01:37At the same time, after saying that, we have to do further investigation.

01:41He also goes after the media, Washington

01:44Post, CNN, saying that they are not faithful to the United States.

01:48They do not respect the brave army or soldiers or air force that went all the way from the

01:54United States to Iran to bomb that country.

01:57So, it's very conflicting statements coming out of Trump's mouth, as usual.

02:02Now, even Israel has said earlier today, they did not say that they succeeded in obliterating

02:10those targets.

02:11They say that we have more investigation has to be done.

02:15When they talk about more investigation has to be done, in the back of my head,

02:19I'm always concerned about the following.

02:21When they say more investigation has to be done, does that mean that the Israel is

02:26planning to send troops on the ground or United States troops on the ground to check the facilities

02:33in Iran?

02:34I don't know.

02:34But today, the Israeli IDF said that they have forces in Iran monitoring the situation.

02:43So, one has to be careful when they're evaluating whether they obliterated or not.

02:48It leaves the door open for further, perhaps, I'm wrong, I hope I'm wrong, perhaps further

02:54incursions by Israel in Iran to try to, you know, set what they say, set the record straight,

03:02especially when we know, if I'll just conclude on that.

03:05As I mentioned to the other host, Louis, about five days ago, in that interview with Telly Sur,

03:13I said the issue for Israel and the United States was not, and was not at the time,

03:20the nuclear issue.

03:22It was regime change.

03:23And just yesterday, the Washington Post confirmed what I said.

03:28They said that this was being planned.

03:30The attack against Iran that took place a couple of days ago, this was being planned

03:35a long time ago, before the controversy of enrichment of uranium is taking place.

03:43So, the overall goal for the United States and Israel, irrespective of negotiation,

03:49is regime change in Iran.

03:52In my view, one cannot take our mind off that specific objective of the United States and Israel.

04:01And to what extent was Israel's military campaign and this premeditated plan you mentioned

04:06against Iran dependent on U.S. support?

04:09And could social operation have even occurred without U.S. backing?

04:15Well, just to, you know, I'll just give you a quote from Joe Biden, supposed to be the moderate

04:20in U.S., right?

04:21He's not, but he said if Israel, this is when he was a senator, if Israel did not exist,

04:27we would have to invent it.

04:28That goes a long way to say, illustrate in a very open way that Israel is an instrument of the U.S.,

04:37in my view, to advance its geopolitical goals in the Middle East and West Asia.

04:42So, Israel is doing the work for the United States.

04:47I don't believe that Israel controls the United States.

04:50I think the United States controls Israel.

04:52Of course, they may have some contradictions with regards to Netanyahu on the one hand and

04:59Donald Trump on the other, but the overall geopolitical goal remains the same.

05:04And so, you know, the answer to your question is very simple.

05:09Israel would not exist without the support of the United States.

05:12And this was shown, you know, Israel, you know, attacked Iran, okay?

05:18And this, they successfully brought the United States into the war because Israel knew very well

05:24by attacking Iran, they will not be able to finish the job.

05:29Israel needed the United States to so-called finish the job, which they didn't, by the way,

05:33but this is what they had in mind.

05:35They needed the United States.

05:36So, this shows once again that Israel is the instrument of the United States.

05:42I mean, you know, in my view, I mean, I think we're going through a historic situation, Alejandra.

05:49The United States said, you know, they don't like,

05:53United States and Israel said they don't like Iran because Iran goes, Iranians go on the street

05:58and shout, death to America, death to Israel.

06:02That was about a week ago.

06:04Well, I got news for Mr. Trump and Mr. Netanyahu.

06:08The Iranians went out on the street against, once again, not only in Tehran, but other cities in Iran,

06:15just a couple of days ago after Israel was forced to concede and ask for a ceasefire.

06:23And they were shouting slogans amongst other, death to America, death to Israel.

06:28So, I think, in my view, the most important thing in this whole scenario that is for sure

06:34is that Israel lost that war regarding Iran.

06:38One has to keep in mind, Alejandro, that the success of the Iranian missiles against Israel resulted,

06:45guess how much it resulted in terms of damage just in the last week or two?

06:49$1.3 billion.

06:52That's a lot of money.

06:53And cities like Haifa, which are very important for the Israeli economic, political and cyber

07:01strategy, is almost completely obliterated.

07:05And Tel Aviv is also in rebels.

07:08So, no one can hide the fact that Israel was the one who attacked.

07:18Iran defended itself and did so very well.

07:20They actually defeated Israel on the battlefield.

07:25And Israel had to beg for mercy for a ceasefire.

07:31And going back to an idea that you mentioned earlier,

07:35while the United States is attributing the end of the hostilities to its intervention and its

07:40targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Iranian officials and even Israel are acknowledging

07:46that the impact was minimal.

07:49Can such external military actions realistically

07:52halt Iran's nuclear program in the long term and also Iran's determination to self-defense?

07:59Well, I think that, you know, I'm not a scientist, you know, a nuclear scientist at all.

08:04But I would like to say the following that, you know, Iran, Israel and the United States can bomb the

08:11Iranian facilities, but they cannot bomb and obliterate the Iranian mine, which has a civilization of

08:195,000 years scientific and other aspects of civilization.

08:25Irrespective of what happens materially, in my view, the Iranians will be able to recuperate themselves.

08:32And if they need to, and I think they have to go on to enrich uranium to defend themselves.

08:38I don't think they have any other choice. Like why is the United States not attacking North Korea now?

08:45Because they have nuclear weapons.

08:46And what happened with Libya, Muhammad Gaddafi?

08:49When he had nuclear weapons, they did not dare to attack him.

08:53But once they did away with the nuclear weapons,

08:56they invaded and assassinated him and took over the country.

09:00That is, I think, in my view, it's very hard to accept because the issue of nuclear weapons

09:05is a very, you know, controversial issue.

09:09But in my view, Iran has no other alternative but to develop in its own way, with its own scientific

09:17knowledge and know-how, nuclear weapons to defend themselves against the United States.

09:23And of course, one has to say, they talk about nuclear weapons.

09:26But which are the countries that have nuclear weapons in the Middle East?

09:29It's Israel. It's supported by which country?

09:32The United States, the only country in history that used atomic bombs in the world

09:40towards the end of World War II.

09:42So that is the heart of the problem.

09:44The United States and Israel, they are the ones that have nuclear weapons.

09:47And while, on the other hand, Iran is building very close ties with other countries,

09:52I could not help but notice, I was very satisfied, I don't know if you noticed that,

09:57but the Pakistani parliament issued an important statement in defense of Iran.

10:03Now, Pakistan has nuclear weapons. So it's not that easy for the United States and Israel

10:09to maintain their monopoly over nuclear weapons. But we will see what happens in the future.

10:15No one hopes for nuclear war. But at the same time, everyone hopes, in my view,

10:19that Iran has the right to defend itself, its sovereignty, and I'm sure they will do so.

10:25Thank you very much for your time, Arnold, here with us from the South.

10:30It's always a pleasure. Thank you for having me.

Analysis | Ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to hold

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