European taxpayer will want 'to see return' on 5% NATO spending increase, analyst says

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00:005% seems like a small figure when you consider what it is,

00:05but it depends exactly what you're measuring it against.

00:075% of the U.S. GDP is a massive amount of money.

00:115% of a smaller nation's GDP, of course, is a lot less.

00:14Do we think that this figure is moving towards giving NATO

00:17the kind of defense that NATO needs?

00:21Two things, Mark.

00:22First of all, it took 15 years to reach the 2% target

00:26that was agreed in 2006, an old NATO summit.

00:30So this is number one.

00:31Number two, I think it's a way for the Americans

00:34to push the Europeans to do more.

00:36It's probably a negotiating tactic to at least reach 3.5,

00:43which is what the Americans are spending right now.

00:45So 5%, I think, is very much of an abstract figure

00:48that you see in Monet paintings,

00:50but I don't think it will be reality at some point.

00:54To put a frame on that, of course,

00:56it's something that really has to come out of a national budget.

00:59Of course, one of the problems that many people make

01:01within individual states is that when you spend on defense,

01:05you're cutting on something else.

01:06That's one of the issues that every leader will face.

01:09This is the key problem here right now for Europeans

01:12because the Americans want us to spend 5%,

01:14but they also want us to buy American weapons,

01:18which are made in America.

01:20And so if you want to convince people to spend 5% on defense,

01:24you need to tell them that it's also going to create jobs

01:26and also going to launch factories in Europe.

01:30Taxpayers realize that this is a lot of money.

01:32They at least want to have a return,

01:35which right now with Trump,

01:36we do not really have as Europeans.

01:39And one of those things that we've seen

01:40since Trump's come into his second term, of course,

01:43that withdrawal from the traditional U.S. role

01:45since 1945 onwards of being, if you like,

01:48world policemen, coming away from that.

01:51Countries realize they need to take more responsibility

01:55for their own defense in that sense.

01:57Like you say, it could be a real dividend

01:59in terms of producing their own arms,

02:01producing their own hardware.

02:02I think the last 80 years are going to be perceived

02:05as an exception to America's history.

02:08I brought a gift with me on this set,

02:10George Cannon, who in 1947 said that NATO

02:15should be limited to a military assistance model,

02:19not a commitment to send troops to Europe by America,

02:23because this is something that America had never done before.

02:26And I think in many ways,

02:28the Americans are going back to that model.

02:31This is, I think, what Trump means when he says

02:33there are many definitions of Article 5.

02:36You know, this is what he said on the plane.

02:37I think when he says something like this,

02:39it means, I think, you can interpret this

02:42as Americans saying,

02:44we will not commit troops to Europe,

02:46but we will support you logistically

02:48and with intelligence.

02:51Article 5 has only ever been invoked once.

02:54That was for the terror attacks

02:55on New York and Washington.

02:57And again, to the aid of the United States.

02:59Some people might see that as ironic.

03:01Some people might just say,

03:02well, that needed to happen when it happened.

03:04But what would have happened

03:05if the rest of NATO had gone,

03:06hang on a minute,

03:07we don't want to get involved in this.

03:09And that's really gone against the whole spirit of it.

03:11And in a sense,

03:11that's what Trump's been doing,

03:12isn't it, with his language?

03:14George Cannon actually discussed this,

03:17because from the start,

03:18the Americans realized that

03:20if America was attacked,

03:21Europe could not do so much for America.

03:25But, you know, America can do a lot

03:26in terms of military mass,

03:28equipment, technology for Europe.

03:30So the relationship was always asymmetrical

03:32between the two sides.

03:34And it remains so nowadays.

03:36Americans do not believe

03:37that Europeans are going to intervene in America

03:39if they are attacked.

03:40Americans also do not really believe

03:42that Europeans are going to go to Asia,

03:45be and go in, you know,

03:46defend Taiwan, for example, with them.

03:49And so I think...

03:50Biden, of course,

03:51made a commitment to defend Taiwan,

03:53whatever happened in the Joe Biden.

03:54Of course, that's off the table now.

03:57Oh, no, I mean,

03:58I think Americans are still

03:59very much present there.

04:01And I think they're very much

04:02present with us as well.

04:03You know, America will be there for us.

04:05It's just not what we have seen before

04:07in the last century.

04:08It's going to be a different kind

04:09of American commitment

04:11that we still have to adjust as Europeans.

04:13This is the problem.

04:14We're still in a very wobbly

04:16kind of stabilization.

04:18Trump today stabilized NATO,

04:20you know, so this is positive.

04:21But it's a very, very unstable stability

04:25in many, many ways

04:26because the relationship

04:27between Europe and America

04:28is not clarified.

04:29There is still a lot of hypocrisy.

04:32And we have no clarity

04:33as to who is doing what,

04:34who is building what.

04:36One sense is he's still got

04:37one foot in, one foot out.

04:38That's the thing that I think

04:39people feel really worried about.

04:41Yeah, it's Trump, you know.

04:42And let's hope that in three years,

04:44four years,

04:44that we'll have a president

04:45that will propose a plan to Europe.

04:47A 10-year, I know.

04:48I mean, it sounds science fiction.

04:51But maybe in 10, 15 years,

04:52we'll have an American president

04:53saying, OK,

04:54this is how we can ensure

04:56Europe's deterrence,

04:57Europe's security.

04:58This is what you do.

04:59This is what we do.

05:00This is what your companies are doing.

05:02This is what our companies are doing.

05:04I think when we have that clarity

05:06within probably another president,

05:08we will feel better

05:09and we will be able to plan.

05:10Because, Mark,

05:11the reason why we cannot do anything

05:12in Ukraine right now

05:14is because we do not know

05:15the value of NATO.

05:16We do not know the value

05:17of Article 5,

05:18which is why we cannot commit,

05:20for example,

05:20troops to Ukraine at the moment.

05:22And that is a massive NATO border

05:24with Russia to defend,

05:25right from Finland

05:26all the way down.

05:27Michael Benamou,

05:28thank you very much

05:28for being with us.

05:29Founder and Executive Director

05:30of Europe's War Institute.

05:31Your analysis,

05:32always welcome here at France 24.

05:33Thank you, sir.

05:34Great to see you.

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