00:00Alexandre Vautravert, Editor-in-Chief of the Revue Militaire Suisse and Scientific Director of CHPM.
00:05Alexandre, as ever, thanks for being with us.
00:07Macron doubling the defence budget, Germany-Britain making similar moves.
00:11This is a sign, a trend, that Europe is really starting to get its Defence Act in order.
00:19Yes, it's a trend, and there are definitely two aspects to this.
00:23First is the international security context, and there is now, as there was for the better part of the 20th century,
00:35a threat that has been designated a threat to Europe.
00:40And on the other side, there is volatility, there is uncertainty,
00:44and uncertainty in particular with regards to alliance and possible dependency on the United States of America.
00:52Indeed, and that very phrase that you've just used there, Alexandre, that sort of doubt about where the U.S. stands.
00:59We now have a situation where Donald Trump appears to be turning on the guy he admires, Vladimir Putin.
01:05Where do you see this going?
01:08I've always said things can change very, very swiftly.
01:12I believe, sincerely, that Donald Trump attempted and had a very affirmative strategy,
01:21had a very clear goal to reach some kind of an agreement, some kind of a truce, perhaps a peace deal in Ukraine.
01:30And unfortunately, Vladimir Putin has not taken him up on this objective.
01:36And instead of encouraging what essentially was going in his direction, in his favor,
01:44Vladimir Putin has, and his administration, his government, have repeatedly insulted the United States State Department
01:53and, of course, President Trump.
01:55And I believe that what we are witnessing now could be essentially a shift towards a much, much harder stance of the United States vis-à-vis Russia.
02:08I hear what you're saying completely.
02:09Can you imagine if someone else had treated Trump, the United States, the way Putin has?
02:14You mentioned about insulting or taking advantage or just basically disregarding what they're saying.
02:20If someone else had done that, can you imagine what the reaction might have been?
02:23Do you think Putin is likely to be moved by this 50-day threat, 50 days, or you get the 100% tariffs?
02:31I don't think so, because so far the Russian strategy has paid off, let's put it this way.
02:39And as long as the situation does not change radically, Russia will continue to make certain gains, territorial gains, over Ukraine.
02:50And there is a perspective, let's say, that Russian foreign policy, Russian strategy cannot be shifted from one day to the next.
03:01I always take this example in order to prepare Russian military forces for an invasion.
03:08This is something that took between 10 and 15 years.
03:11What the United States is doing right now is making shifts and changes within a couple of months.
03:18France, Germany, the UK, all acting to fill the gap that could be left by any US drawdown.
03:25That is clearly what's been going on since Trump was elected.
03:28Does Trump's U-turn on the supply of Patriot missiles to Ukraine change the game now, do you think?
03:36This is a game changer.
03:37This is not the first, because there was already a first game changer at the time of the episode in Crimea in 2015.
03:48What we are seeing now is an acceleration of these shifts, these strategic shifts.
03:54And what is interesting is definitely this grand strategy of France, which is not only wanting to bolster French defences, but actually European defences.
04:08And the clearly stated objectives here is to create a European-wide, a pan-European-wide protective shield for Europe.
04:20And indeed, that shield has got to extend from Finland in the north all the way down, straight down to the bottom end of Ukraine, maybe beyond as well.
04:29Do you see a war with Russia in the future?
04:31Some people are saying that's the case.
04:33Do you share that view?
04:33It depends what you call a war, but definitely in its most hybrid forms, so tensions, blackmailing, a lot of diplomacy, covert actions, we are pretty much already in this kind of situation.
04:50What we have seen also developed these past few years, and this is quite spectacular, historically speaking, is the use almost on a regular basis nowadays of intermediate-range ballistic missiles.
05:06So weapons, which would have been an absolute taboo during the Cold War, are now being relatively regularly used.
05:16And we are seeing hundreds of these weapons being used in the Middle East.
05:21And the same is true, of course, in the context of Ukraine.
05:25Alexandre Vautravert, Editor-in-Chief of the Rue Militaire Suisse and Scientific Director of CHPM.
05:30Thank you, as always, for your time here in France 24.
