00:00Namaskar, friends. Pakistan is faced with a deadly and dangerous paradox in its security landscape.
00:16It sustained the Taliban for 20 years and helped them get back into power in Kabul in 2021.
00:24Yet today, it is exchanging gunfire with them.
00:27Similarly, the tribal elements that helped Pakistan to sustain the Taliban for 20 years are today grouped under the banner of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan or the TTP, but are daggers drawn with Pakistan.
00:44Worse, there is an organic connection between the Taliban and the TTP that is making it difficult for Pakistan to tackle the security challenge.
00:53I am Teluk Divesha, and you are watching The Great Game Reloaded.
01:01So how did Pakistan manage to create its own worst nightmare?
01:06Today, I look at one part of that nightmare, the TTP, that has declared war on the Pakistani state, yet it originated from Pakistan's own strategic policies.
01:19It is an insurgency that thrives inside Pakistan, while Islamabad looks for enemies elsewhere.
01:26In 2014, the TTP crossed a line that shocked the world.
01:31The Peshawar School Massacre.
01:34132 children gunned down in cold blood.
01:37That attack forced Pakistan to act.
01:40The military launched Operation Zarbiyazb.
01:42Hundreds of militants were killed.
01:44The TTP was driven out of Waziristan, but it survived.
01:47For a while, the threat subsided.
01:51But now, 10 years on, the TTP is back.
01:55Stronger, more defined, and better armed.
01:58It is wreaking havoc across the country, primarily targeting Pakistan's security forces.
02:05There are no signs of abatement.
02:07And it is not operating from caves or hiding in remote hills in the tribal areas.
02:13It is striking in mainland Pakistan and Pakistan's cities.
02:17Some figures give a perspective.
02:20In 2024, Pakistan witnessed the highest number of terrorist attacks since 2014,
02:27with over 450 reported incidents claiming the lives of 475 security personnel,
02:35or almost 40 a month.
02:37Of course, not all were carried out by the TTP, but the Balkwa.
02:41Just imagine, almost 40 security personnel being killed every month.
02:46The surge in violence raises a pressing question.
02:51Is Pakistan losing the battle against terrorism?
02:54Statistics seem to suggest so.
02:56Over the past five years, extremist violence, including targeted killings, suicide bombings,
03:02and assaults on security installations, has escalated significantly.
03:08Former tribal districts like Bajor, North Waziristan and South Waziristan remain hotspots,
03:14while militants have expanded their reach to adjacent areas.
03:18Let's rewind to December 2007.
03:22That's when the TTP was formed.
03:24The catalyst was the army's attack on Islamabad's Lal Masjid, or Red Mosque, in July 2007.
03:32Even though the Lal Masjid was not in the tribal areas,
03:34about 70% of its madrasa students were.
03:38A coalition of militant groups operating from Pakistan's tribal areas,
03:43led by Baitullah Mesud, unified to form the TTP,
03:47to seek revenge for the killing of the students.
03:50The agenda was clear,
03:51waved jihad against the Pakistani state,
03:54and established a Ria rule.
03:55Interestingly, in 2008,
03:59Baitullah was named one of the world's
04:01100 most influential figures of the year by Time magazine.
04:06The question is,
04:08if the army could crush the TTP earlier,
04:11in 2014-16,
04:13why can't it do so again?
04:15There are at least four reasons.
04:18Unlike in 2014,
04:20today there is no consensus in Pakistan
04:22on carrying out another army operation
04:24in the tribal areas.
04:26If anything,
04:27there is internal disunity.
04:29The army and the elected government
04:30in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
04:32are at odds about any operation.
04:36Then,
04:37Pakistan lacks resources
04:38to carry out another operation,
04:40while the army has no stamina
04:42for doing so.
04:45Public fatigue.
04:46Pakistanis are tired of endless wars
04:48in the tribal areas.
04:50Finally,
04:51cross-border sanctuaries.
04:52The TTP has a secure haven in Afghanistan
04:55that it did not have in 2014.
04:58Besides,
04:59in the earlier period,
05:01American drones took out several TTP leaders.
05:04American drones are not available today.
05:07How does one explain
05:08the resurgence of the TTP?
05:11A key factor
05:12has been the Taliban return to power
05:14in Kabul in August 2021.
05:18Pakistan believed
05:19it had gained strategic depth
05:21that the Afghan Taliban
05:22would now crack down on the TTP.
05:25That didn't happen.
05:27Pakistan's great strategic gamble backfired.
05:31The opposite happened.
05:33The Afghan Taliban declined
05:34to contain disarm
05:36or act against the TTP.
05:38Hundreds of TTP fighters
05:40were released
05:40from Afghan prisons.
05:41The TTP found new sanctuaries
05:44across the border in Afghanistan.
05:47The Taliban provided tacit support
05:48and armed the TTP.
05:51But why didn't the Taliban cooperate?
05:53Because the links of the TTP and the Afghan Taliban
