- 6/12/2025
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00:00The Indiana Pacers have a 2-1 series advantage in the 2025 NBA Finals and
00:06have two more home games, at least, throughout this championship set.
00:11And yet, DRS, the Pacers, who have continuously been an underdog
00:15throughout this magical playoff run, remain an underdog for the entirety of
00:20this series, and of course, entering game four on Friday night.
00:24That's tomorrow in Indianapolis.
00:26Minus 230, the price on OKC, to win an NBA championship outright.
00:32The Thunder were minus 700, entering game one, minus 650, entering game number three
00:38a night ago.
00:40But what I think stands out to me the most is the shortest total games.
00:45The odds makers expect the most likely distance and duration of the NBA Finals
00:50at a damn near even money price at plus 104 DRS is for the NBA Finals.
00:56To see its entirety now in seven games.
01:00Still going six for me.
01:01That's where I'm headed here at this point, because I'm now looking at the face that
01:04you can still win three in a row if you're OKC, which means handle your business in
01:08game number four.
01:09We'll see if they can do that.
01:10And we'll talk about those odds and spreads in just a few moments.
01:12Game number five in your own building, handle your business.
01:14And then you play in a game number six, which will be pressure packed where you can
01:17close them out.
01:18Now, also, flip side here, right?
01:20Indiana Pacers, once again, win at home.
01:22They're up three to one.
01:23You get a kitchen sink effort for OKC, probably a blowout victory in that game for OKC on their
01:27home court.
01:28Then what do you do, Ben?
01:29You come back home for game number six with the Pacers going, no, no, no, we're not getting
01:33a game number seven in your building.
01:34We're going to close it up right here.
01:35So I'm still sticking with game number six, even though maybe a little bit harder, because
01:39the simple fact is the Pacers might be the ones here with the closeout ability in game
01:43number five, which would be incredible to even think about that.
01:46But that's just the way it is.
01:47So for myself and my money, I say, you know what?
01:49Let me just stick with game number six here, like my original prediction.
01:53The odds have never looked favorably at Indiana, really, throughout this postseason.
01:58They were favored in four or five games against Milwaukee in the opening round, an underdog
02:03in all five games against the East, number one seed in the Cleveland Cavaliers in round
02:08number two.
02:09The Pacers were a home favorite against the New York Knicks, but an underdog inside Madison
02:14Square Garden.
02:15And of course, Indiana, a series underdog entering the Eastern Conference Finals.
02:19against New York as well.
02:22So should we be surprised the Pacers are the underdog for this series?
02:27I guess not.
02:28Should we be surprised that Indiana has a 2-1 series lead in one last night, convincingly
02:33so, especially after a critical fourth quarter as a five and a half point home underdog?
02:39And yet they are a six point home dog for tomorrow night's game number four in Indianapolis?
02:44I guess not.
02:46But Donnie, that's where the Pacers have thrived.
02:48They have overcome the odds.
02:50They have defied the expectations from the odds makers in the NBA Finals and in their
02:55previous two rounds.
02:57Which again, when you are trying to do the math for some of these prices and what we expect
03:03to try to paint the clearest picture of what we are going to see the remainder of the NBA
03:09Finals, the Thunder still being a minus 230 favorite.
03:12In the prices on OKC, OKC can only win this series now, DRS, in six or seven games.
03:19And that's plus 198 for the Thunder.
03:23The entire duration is plus 165.
03:26And then you look at every single price for Indiana still being nearly six to one.
03:31It is a crazy enlarged distinction.
03:35It is because the bets of the odds makers, I should say, still don't think that Indiana
03:39should be able to win this series because they thought they should have.
03:42Like, what's a better price?
03:43Like maybe Indiana favorite today?
03:45Maybe not go that far, but almost a coin flip with a slight edge to OKC.
03:50And also understand this.
03:51You're looking at the price points here for the next game, which will be in Indiana, where
03:55it's like, all right, Friday night.
03:56Let's sit down and watch.
03:57What's that line?
03:58Well, Indiana's up two to one.
04:00Indiana was down or double digit dogs.
04:02Won one of those games outright in games one and games two.
04:05They go for game number three.
04:06Let's just say it's a five point number here.
04:08Again, the Pacers won.
04:09So this line probably is closer to a pick them OKC or minus one OKC.
04:13No, it's even higher today at the FanDuel Sportsbook at minus six with other outlets,
04:18even as high as minus six and a half.
04:21But outside of like, you're watching the games, like, you know, the have to environment, right?
04:26Well, Oklahoma City has to win this game or they're not going to win the NBA Finals.
04:29So you juice it up just a little bit.
04:31But watching the first three games, is our takeaway like, OKC, if they just make a layup
04:36or two, they're going to blow this team out.
04:37Like, no, like Indiana is literally taking it to Oklahoma City.
04:41And yet the odds maker is like, that's all fine and good.
04:43We know where this year is going to end.
04:45Because for me, even like 1-0, 1-1, 2-1, I still have it in my mind that OKC is the better
04:50team.
04:51But on the court here, we're not getting fluke victories.
04:53He's like, oh my gosh, man, like when is Shea Gilders-Alexander going to go one for
04:5719 from the floor and they lose by two points here?
05:00That's not the case.
05:01Teams are playing good basketball here.
05:02And the Pacers right now are the better basketball team.
05:04But yet the odds makers are like, ah, we're going to rely on our algorithms here.
05:08And you'll see eventually OKC is the better team.
05:12And those ratings are still there.
05:14Again, the odds makers expect this now to see the distance at plus 104.
05:19Entering game three last night, for this to be a gentleman's sweep, which both teams had
05:24the potential of pulling off, now only Indiana, the shortest total games was five at plus 152.
05:32Not series correct score, just series total games.
05:35Which, again, makes where the odds stand that much more fascinating.
05:40It's not OK, Indiana has a 2-1 series lead.
05:43Maybe let's have it closer to a pick-em or, hey, at least the Pacers on their home floor
05:48with two more home games.
05:50To win it in six is plus 280.
05:53Third shortest number, every price for OKC.
05:58The two realistic possibilities.
06:00The only two possibilities for the Thunder to win an NBA championship.
06:04Six and seven games, shorter than $2.
06:07Indiana's shortest is at home in game six at plus 570.
06:13Of course, OKC, still a minus 230 favorite.
06:17Shea Gilgis-Alexander, still a hefty favorite to win NBA Finals MVP.
06:22What is fascinating and pointed out to me by our producer extraordinaire, Joe Frizzo,
06:27only nine individuals, DRS, have a Finals MVP price still out there.
06:32And Benedict Matherin, game three's leading scorer for Indiana, 27 points, the most by
06:38a bench player in a Finals game in nearly a decade and a half, does not have one of them.
06:43That's a little bit shocking.
06:45Yeah, it is a little bit shocking there because you figure that if we're going to go seven
06:48games, you still have, what, games four, five, six, and seven where you can get some
06:52of these unheralded superstars to step up in big moments where maybe if Tyrese Halliburton
06:56knocks down a couple game-winning shots again throughout the rest of the series, sure, he's going
07:00to get it, but we don't have one guy scoring 40 points every single game, and that's what
07:04you make of it.
07:05Now, here's the interesting part, too, about the MVP odds.
07:08You see the series prices to win, minus 230 on Oklahoma City.
07:11You see the MVP odds, minus 240 on Shea Gilgis-Alexander.
07:15You might be thinking, yes, different betting markets sometimes have slightly different price
07:18points here, but there is also the option of, this is a seven-game series.
07:22Shea Gilgis-Alexander goes for 35, 45, 35, 30, and they lose by one point in game number
07:28seven where he just had that real team effort for Indiana beating you, which is why he's
07:32priced just slightly higher than the team itself because there is a slight outside chance that
07:38he's the best player in this series and it's unbelievable, and it goes game number seven
07:42and they just didn't win.
07:43Now, we don't think that's going to happen because it usually always just goes to the
07:46team that won, but that's why that price point is slightly higher than what you can get
07:50on Oklahoma City at minus 230.
07:52Yeah, maybe.
07:53So, again, there is really a 99.9% chance, the only way that Shea Gilgis-Alexander wins
07:59NBA Finals MVP with how things have played out now, that the Thunder win an NBA championship.
08:05So, for the first time, the price on SGA is steeper than that of his team to win that Larry
08:12O'Brien trophy.
08:13Tyrese Halliburton, second-best number.
08:15Pascal Siakam, who also scored 21 points last night at 10-1.
08:19DRS today, from game three to game four, and today being that off day, this is the
08:26only time in the NBA Finals, just one day in between games, not two full days off.
08:33OKC is a six-point favorite for tomorrow night in Indianapolis.
08:38That total has dropped two of the three games under, 225 and a half.
08:42What is your early look at game number four of the NBA Finals?
08:46Yeah, OKC.
08:47What do we talk about them?
08:48Of course, it's SGA, and they have a good basketball team, number one over on the NBA
08:51in the regular season, but we always talk about their defense.
08:54And if defense wins championships, they need a lot of defense here moving forward in game
08:58number four.
08:59So, my first lean is, forget about the side itself.
09:02I might be looking at that under 225 and a half.
09:05And we have seen two of the three stay under in game two.
09:08That did sky to the over, as you probably heard in Kevin Walsh's excitement in that final
09:12commercial before we returned here on the early line, was a late time pushing to be over.
09:18More around the NBA.
09:19Now, this is the only time in the 2025 NBA Finals that we have just a day off in between games
09:27throughout this championship series.
09:29A quick turnaround for game number four tomorrow night in Indianapolis, where the Pacers have
09:34a 2-1 series advantage and can maybe put that champagne on ice at the very least if they
09:40win outright as an underdog tomorrow night inside Cambridge Fieldhouse.
09:45We'll get to some other news around the association and what is ahead this summer in just a moment.
09:51But, Donnie, I do want to talk about the early odds.
09:53Six points in favor of Oklahoma City.
09:55A stronger line now in favor of the Thunder entering game four than even working its way
10:01up at close five and a half last night before game number three.
10:05The total has dropped by about a half point, 225 and a hook.
10:10And again, we like to follow the money.
10:12We like to follow the betting statistics here on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
10:1674% of the money, 57% of the overall volume of bets were backing the Thunder on the spread
10:23as a five, five and a half point favorite entering game number three.
10:26And there was a lot of money on Oklahoma City after they evened in their 16-point win in game
10:34number two.
10:34Right now, 61% of the bets on Indiana as the home underdog getting six points.
10:42But 52% of the early money, understanding the importance of this game for the Thunder to
10:48equalize once again in the NBA Finals, 52% of the money backing OKC as that six-point road
10:54favorite.
10:56Yeah, again, if you're just reading the line, I mean, does anything scream more that you
10:59need to be taking Oklahoma City in game number four than this line?
11:02So let me get this straight.
11:03It's two to one here.
11:04Game number four still in Indiana's building.
11:06They just won the last game here by close to double digits.
11:09And then you're going to give me another six points on Friday night?
11:13We could see where the betting public would say, of course, sign me up because what's
11:15the worst case scenario that happens?
11:17Well, yeah, you could lose.
11:18But also, the Pacers could lose and you still can get that cover.
11:22Like, if I'm looking at game number four optimistically and saying, what have I seen from the Indiana
11:25Pacers?
11:26Really good basketball.
11:27Like, there is a chance that the Pacers do lose this game and can lose it by less than
11:31six points.
11:32Basically, three possessions here, theoretically, with three two-point advantages there.
11:36So for my money, I'm really confused by this.
11:39Like, I want to take Oklahoma City just because I see that line at minus six.
11:43And that's telling me something where we'll see where that holds up until the game tips
11:46off tomorrow night.
11:47But at the same time, I'm saying, well, I don't want my eyes to deceive me because the Pacers
11:50are good and they can win this game outright again.
11:53Why not just take the touchdown right here?
11:55Yeah, DRS, there's no doubt about it, right?
11:58Oklahoma City has been incredible at home throughout this postseason run.
12:03But on the road, they are 4-4 outright.
12:05They are 0-8 against the spread.
12:08Their largest win as a road team in this postseason is exactly by that spread of six points.
12:15And that was round number one against the Grizzlies in games.
12:18They were booked as double-digit favorites on the road in the grind city.
12:22It has not been easy for OKC away from home throughout this playoff run.
12:28Again, one day off.
12:30That's it.
12:30Our shortest days in between games of the NBA finals in the entirety of this championship
12:36set.
12:37That is this Thursday.
12:39Some other basketball news yesterday.
12:41The New York Knicks continue to get denied by every NBA organization they reach out to
12:47in hopes of interviewing a head coach under contract.
12:50And another key thing that will happen this summer, what is the future home of Kevin Durant?
12:55KD is 36 years old.
12:57He will turn 37 in September for what will be his 18th season in the association.
13:03And DRS's business partner, Rich Kleiman, and the Phoenix Suns already exploring some of those
13:09potential trade options.
13:11The teams that are listed there from Sham Sharania were basically all the teams that
13:16our Canadian friends of the FanDuel Sportsbook had a graphic for earlier in the week.
13:21Spurs, Rockets, Knicks, all of that stuff included right there.
13:27What do you make of Kevin Durant's future in the NBA this summer?
13:31It'll be interesting to see where he goes, but also what's the price point for these franchises?
13:34Like, again, you are not getting 27-year-old Kevin Durant, who's going to be like your
13:38stonewall piece here for the next 10 years.
13:40You might get a good season or two where you can still play at a high level, but there's
13:44two choices you need to make.
13:45Because some of the teams I look at, like the Minnesota Timberwolves, they're way up
13:49there in salary cap.
13:50So I don't know if they're going to want to take on a Kevin Durant when their ownership
13:52group basically said, we're coming in here because we spend too much money.
13:56We're not a huge market team.
13:57We got to get back to playability where we can be a profitable franchise on year to
14:00year.
14:00I don't think that's going to make sense dollars-wise, but it makes sense for the team.
14:04Like, okay, we're in that window.
14:05We think we can win.
14:06Maybe Kevin Durant can help us for a year or two.
14:08The other team that I think makes some sense, too, would be the New York Knicks.
14:11That same framework, though, right?
14:13We have a veteran team, and we're ready to win now.
14:15A one-the-two-year window with Kevin Durant, maybe it makes some sense.
14:18The teams I don't think make any sense are, why would he go to the Spurs?
14:21Why would he go to Houston?
14:22Like, you're building something with those franchises based on young basketball talent,
14:26and you want them to learn to go over the ebbs and flows that by the time they're in
14:29their absolute prime, they're ready to win championships for years in advance.
14:33Why would you blow any of that up?
14:34Because Kevin Durant is not coming in to be like, hey, you know what?
14:36I'm going to teach these guys the rope.
14:38Kevin Durant's coming in like, yeah, you guys are young.
14:40It's my basketball at the end of the game.
14:42Just make sure I get that, and we'll see what happens here.
14:43And also, from the simple fact that I look at Kevin Durant for what he did, saying,
14:47I can't win in Oklahoma City, which I didn't mind.
14:49I'm going to go to Golden State.
14:50I want to win championships.
14:51And he did.
14:52But then to get mad at Golden State, like, I'm not getting enough attention here.
14:55Let me get out of here and show you.
14:57I'll go to my own franchise, and we'll dominate.
14:59That's not anything since he left Golden State at this point.
15:01So, buy your beware on Kevin Durant.
15:04Two and a half years with Brooklyn.
15:06Two and a half years with the Phoenix Suns as well.
15:09And DRS, he has been an all-star, that being KD, in all 15 years since his first two in
15:14the association, including the last two full years in the Valley.
15:18He is still averaging 26 points per game, as you saw on that graphic.
15:22He has still averaged at least 26 points per game in his last seven seasons since 2017-18.
15:29He's still got some juice in the tank, but I agree with you.
15:32The fit has to be right for Kevin Durant, really, to move the needle and move the market
15:37in a substantial way for me.
15:40You saw Adam Silver yesterday on the pregame show on ABC.
15:43The first question was about the court logos and how he can make the NBA Finals feel like
15:49that premier championship set.
15:51He said they were taken away about a decade ago because players were slipping.
15:55While there's other logos on the court, why would the Larry O'Brien Trophy be the only
16:01slippery logo out there on the hardwood?
16:04You know, you're starting to convince me that maybe Commissioner Rightside is the right
16:09way to do things in professional sports.
16:12It is.
16:12And look, I understand what they're saying because they take the cheap route, right?
16:15It's like, okay, we have our home court here.
16:17It's the courts that we use all season long.
16:19But when we get to the finals, we don't want to buy a new court because then we'd have to
16:23put like the actual paint on there as opposed to maybe some logo stickers.
16:26But why don't you spend the extra money at that point?
16:28You're telling me like NBA teams, like we can have these stupid courts for the NBA Cup
16:32in the middle of the season that look all ridiculous.
16:35When the finals come, we don't want to spend a little bit extra money as like an NBA court.
16:38Hey, look, the NBA has already designed the court for the finals.
16:42All we're waiting for are the teams here.
16:43And we use that same court every single night.
16:45We have a beautiful finals logo.
16:47You don't feel completely different.
16:48So you want it to feel completely different on the NBA Cup, which means nothing.
16:52But then the finals, eh, let's just go with some random stuff.
16:55I agree with that.
16:56Like the finals logo and the final script is beautiful.
16:59And anytime you can plaster that all over the place, dating back to the 1990s when you
17:03used to see it, it was a lot of fun there.
17:05And you saw the Larry O'Brien, like sort of like the Lakers logo with the Larry O'Brien
17:09behind it or the Orlando Magic logo with the Larry O'Brien behind it.
17:12Like, yes, like invest in a court that is a finals court where it's like, hey, man,
17:16I can't wait to see that finals court.
17:17It's going to mean something.
17:18But no, they continue to bypass the stuff that the people are asking for.
17:22And then when they do ask for it, Ben, what do they get?
17:24A CGI two-inch trophy on the court that looks ridiculous.
17:27Like, hey, we sort of messed that one up.
17:30It was Malika Andrews on the show yesterday that asked Commissioner Silver that very
17:35question.
17:35And the way she phrased it made sense.
17:37Like, how can we make these big events feel even more significant and unique?
17:42And then she finished with, like the NBA Cup.
17:45And I heard her say, I'm like, we're going to compare the finals to the NBA Cup, the rather
17:50meaningless in-season tournament.
17:52But what she meant by that was at least the NBA is doing something unique and different
17:57for the NBA Cup.
17:58So you know there is a difference from any measly regular or postseason game.
18:03And they can't do that for the finals?
18:05Crazy.
18:06Whatever.
18:07Let's talk about how the people are feeling DRS after Indiana takes a 2-1 series advantage
18:12in the NBA finals last night.
18:15We were all hoping this series would be competitive, and that's what we have.
18:20But I think the idea was, all right, can Indiana even get it to a sixth game in this championship
18:26series?
18:27The question now, DRS, can the Pacers win this thing outright?
18:31Can the Pacers claim a Larry O'Brien trophy for the first time in franchise history as a
18:37true NBA champion?
18:38That was the question to all of you and fade the public.
18:45Which team will win the NBA finals at SportsGrid on Twitter?
18:53A rather simple question, DRS, but of course leading to a discussion.
18:58Pacers, Thunder, of course your two options.
19:01Just who is going to win the NBA championship?
19:04And most of the public is saying Oklahoma City.
19:08Around 51-52% of the vote for most of this Thursday morning.
19:12But that's barely most of the public.
19:16Nearly 48% believing the Pacers cannot just keep this thing competitive the rest of the
19:22way, but pull off the upset as an underdog to be crowned an NBA champion.
19:28DRS, did you fade the public?
19:31No, look, I went with the public.
19:33I picked the Thunder.
19:34And I love the fact that we're not saying like, oh man, 75% to 25%, 80% to 20% either direction.
19:39Which means that this is exactly what we asked for when we got to the finals.
19:43It wasn't for me who was going to win it.
19:45And I thought Oklahoma City would win it.
19:47I still think they are going to win it.
19:48But just give us some competitiveness.
19:50Give us some adversity for OKC.
19:52Just don't have us in a gentleman's sweep where no matter what, you know, OKC wins the
19:56first two games, loses game number three, wins game number four.
19:58It's like, man, this is a really boring series at this point.
20:01Or even worse.
20:02How about if it was a 3-0 series lead after last night for OKC?
20:05It's like, is anybody tuning in outside of Oklahoma City fans for game number four?
20:08We got exactly what we asked for.
20:10And they're providing that in spades right now.
20:11Because you look at the Thunder, for me, still think they're the better team.
20:14But they're not going to be the better team unless they win game number four and even it
20:18up.
20:19And when they do, which I do believe they will, it's 2-2.
20:21Best of three for the NBA finals here where the Pacers are now saying like, we're not underdogs
20:25in the series.
20:26I don't care what the price point is.
20:27We are right in here to win it.
20:28I love this.
20:29But I did vote for the Thunder.
20:30And I love the fact that 48% roughly are still backing the Pacers here.
20:34Now that they have the lead, love it.
20:36It was nowhere near that to start this series.
20:39We're expecting DRS.
20:41No doubt about it.
20:41We are expecting this thing to be even at two games apiece.
20:45After four, a best of three where the Thunder would have home floor advantage.
20:49Two games in OKC.
20:51There is no doubt about it.
20:52The Thunder a six-point favorite for tomorrow night in game number four.
20:57But I'm not so sure exactly the public is feeling that confident that it's going to
21:02be 2-2.
21:02That we are going to see the Thunder just win this thing outright as the oddsmakers expect
21:08to be the case.
21:09And that's what you wonder, right?
21:11The oddsmakers with that steady belief and optimism in Oklahoma City.
21:15There's still a minus 230 favorite to win the Larry O'Brien trophy outright.
21:19There are only two plausible outcomes to win an NBA championship are six and seven games.
21:25Both prices shorter than two dollars.
21:28And the Pacers, who currently have home floor advantage, with still two more home games in
21:34the NBA finals, even to win it in six is plus 570.
21:39And yet the public not buying in to the algorithms.
21:44The public not buying into the power ratings.
21:47Yes, most of the public, nearly 52%, still thinking the Thunder are going to win this
21:52thing outright.
21:53You can't fault that philosophy.
21:55But it's not a landslide.
21:56Like, the odds are still believing in Oklahoma City to pull off an NBA championship this season.
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