- 6/3/2025
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00:00Still two days away from the start of the 2025 NBA Finals in Oklahoma City.
00:06It is Thursday night between the Thunder and the Pacers.
00:09We continue to break down what we can expect in the NBA championship matchup.
00:14We'll have Brian Fonseca on the show later in our third and final hour.
00:19But DRS, as we look at the series outright prices and where this set stands,
00:23of course, OKC remains a very, very hefty favorite.
00:27Minus $7.50, still that same outright price.
00:31And even DRS for Oklahoma City to win in five games.
00:34Whether it's laying two and a half in that series spread, five games at the most to cash that ticket.
00:40The VIG yesterday was minus $118.00.
00:42That juice today, minus $132.00, even more likely.
00:46Oklahoma City to pull off the gentleman's sweep and win in five.
00:49The most likely outcome as the odds maker saw it for the NBA Finals on a Monday was plus $2.10.
00:56Take a couple of cents off that number.
00:59Now plus $198.00.
01:01People buying into the idea.
01:03The Thunder, the overwhelming favorite.
01:05And the NBA Finals probably does not have overly a long duration to it.
01:10Yeah, most people thought the Pacers would have been knocked out a long time ago.
01:13But they're still here standing in the NBA Finals.
01:15And we understand how good Oklahoma City is and how important home court advantage is.
01:19We get that.
01:20But you're also taking a look at a team in Indiana that's won a lot of big games on the road already in this playoff run.
01:25In some hostile environments, they're not going to be afraid.
01:28They're also coming into the Finals as a healthy team.
01:30So equal rest on both sides.
01:32Not, hey, we've been rested for eight days.
01:33You just played last night.
01:34And good luck with that.
01:35And there's a lot of back-to-backs in the NBA Finals.
01:37You will be rested.
01:38You have time off in between games.
01:40Staying in the same city.
01:41Not jet-setting on.
01:42Playing in Denver one night.
01:43L.A. the next night.
01:44Two nights later being in Dallas.
01:45I think we'll be fine on this.
01:47So Pacers, I think there is an advantage for them.
01:49Because they've won big games.
01:51But not an advantage for the series.
01:53Because we understand that the Thunder are the better team.
01:54Heavily priced at a minus 750 to handle their business.
01:57But also from me, I do think we get games six plus in this.
02:01Which means I will take the over five games.
02:04And also, is there a chance?
02:05Like, is anybody like, I can't even believe that the Pacers won this series.
02:08Like, stop.
02:09That's a good basketball team.
02:10If the Pacers steal one of these first two games, we're in for an extended series.
02:14That's the way it should be.
02:15And that's the way I'm betting it here.
02:16Is it a little bit with my heart?
02:18Like, okay, it's the NBA.
02:19It's the finals.
02:20Boy, I hope we don't get a four-game explosion.
02:22Where it's like, boy, that was really boring.
02:23And 20-point wins every night.
02:24And SGA turns out to be MVP.
02:26Give us a little controversy.
02:28Give us a little turmoil.
02:29Give us a little adversity for the best team in OKC.
02:32Let's go over the five games.
02:34Yeah, D.R.S., I completely agree with you.
02:36Over five and a half games in the series.
02:38Total games over under.
02:40Now, plus 120.
02:41It was plus 106 yesterday.
02:43Again, every indication.
02:44Whichever way you slice it from the series odds, Oklahoma City is going to win the Larry O'Brien trophy, be crowned an NBA champion, and probably do it in at most five games.
02:55We're hoping for a little bit better than that, just as basketball fans, and to extend our final NBA games this summer and this season.
03:03Let's compare these two teams.
03:05I thought J.Y., and the way he has broken this down so far, our coach, D.R.S., throughout this series, has been interesting.
03:12You really looked at how Indiana played against the New York Knicks, against the Bucs, against the Cavs, but especially New York.
03:19And you saw the advantage for the Pacers.
03:21Height advantage, physicality advantage, pace advantage.
03:25They are one of the best teams, if not the best, in the NBA, even taking a made basket and turning it into transition quickly.
03:34That might not be the strength against Oklahoma City, where the Thunder would open up that matchup and welcome that exposure.
03:42And in terms of balance and depth for the Pacers, it's not necessarily like they have a large advantage against OKC, where they did against New York.
03:51The Pacers are 50-32 this season in the regular season.
03:55Of course, much better here throughout the playoffs.
03:5816 games in total for Indiana.
04:01In this playoff run, 16 games in total for Oklahoma City.
04:06The best NBA team throughout the regular season, 68-14 D.R.S.
04:10They were a cover machine throughout the regular season.
04:14A 68% clip.
04:15By far the best.
04:16The Thunder have 80 total wins, 68 in the regular, 12 in the postseason, one of four NBA teams ever, with a couple of Michael Jordan Bulls teams in the mid-90s, and, of course, the Golden State team that won 73 regular season games.
04:34Those four NBA teams, the only four in NBA history to win at least 80 games by the start of the NBA Finals.
04:43They're good.
04:43This just in, right?
04:44All that dominant success in the regular season has turned into dominant success for the most part here in the playoffs.
04:50But you are correct about one thing.
04:51The reason they were able to turn up the gas against the New York Knicks is they weren't that great defensively in the open court.
04:57Oklahoma City is just as athletic and taller at key positions here to try to shut you down.
05:02That's going to be tough for the Pacers to say, we want to get out and run.
05:05And OKC's like, fine, we'll shut that down as well.
05:07Yeah, we'll shut that down and then we'll answer as well with our own offensive onslaught if you open up the pace of play.
05:14We'll talk about what that can mean for the opening game of the NBA Finals next.
05:18Still two days away from the tip of the NBA Finals on a Thursday night in Oklahoma City.
05:25The Thunder, a hefty favorite, of course, to win a Larry O'Brien trophy at OKCDRS, a hefty favorite in the opening game of the NBA Finals.
05:34Nine points spread in favor of the Thunder, a total already on the rise to 231 and a half.
05:41It was 230 and a hook just yesterday.
05:45231 points, 232 even expected in the opening game of the NBA Finals.
05:51Are we going to see that much offense from the very jump?
05:55I don't know.
05:56We might.
05:57And again, earlier in the series, not every possession technically needs to be played like it's life or death.
06:01They're getting used to the other teams here, don't know their offensive sets.
06:04And also understand this, you had a week to prepare to put in some new offensive sets that might not even be on tape.
06:09So the other team can't have that scouting report.
06:11Whereas when you get the games three, four and five, you know everything that they're doing at that point here.
06:16But also, like, it's not fair to say that Ken Rust, like, creep in.
06:19Like, the guys played an entire season.
06:21They probably love having an extra couple days off, and they should be just fine.
06:24So for me, I do think we lean more towards the over than the under in game number one.
06:28Don't love it, but that's just where I would look at that point.
06:31So I think the tempo will be there.
06:32It's just a matter of will the shot making go down?
06:34Because saying to yourself, like, oh, the Pacers would only score 98 points in this game.
06:39Put it this way.
06:40The Pacers don't get to the century mark in game number one.
06:42Don't watch games two, three, and four.
06:44It's going to be academic at that point.
06:45So I'm expecting points, at least in game number one.
06:48And that's one of the differences, right?
06:50The Thunder really stout defensively.
06:53If they can slow down Indiana, of course, a monumental advantage for Oklahoma City,
06:58who has played 16 games in the postseason.
07:01Eight over, eight under.
07:03Not much of an edge there.
07:05Indiana, you could correlate at times.
07:08Their success with the points scored in a game, three of their four wins.
07:12And the Eastern Conference Finals against the Knicks did push to the over.
07:16The two victories for New York in the ECF both stayed well under.
07:21That is why the total is at 231.5.
07:24New York has interesting betting statistics early here.
07:28Still more than 48 hours out from game number one on FanDuel.
07:3257% of the money on the spread backing OKC as that hefty nine-point favorite.
07:3957% of the overall volume of bets backing the Pacers as the hefty underdog on the road in game number one.
07:48Now, it's not necessarily scientific, but any time there is more money being bet on one side versus bets,
07:56often you think larger bets are more experienced gamblers, not just everybody else in the public,
08:03putting in their two cents and their money for a game.
08:07Does that tell you anything that more of the money is on OKC, but more of the volume of bets on Indiana?
08:13Yeah, because most of the time you're looking also in understanding, like, let's put this number into order here.
08:19And you say, all right, well, which way would I like to bet?
08:21What's the old school theory and the, you know, the novice gambler?
08:24Wait a second.
08:25The Pacers in the NBA Finals, they're healthy.
08:27They look damn good in their first three series.
08:29And I'm getting close to 10 points.
08:31Sign me up.
08:32And again, as I always like to say, these numbers are there for a reason.
08:35That's what the algorithm spits out.
08:36So for me, you say, you know what?
08:38Been around the block multiple times.
08:39That number is screaming at you.
08:41You better be taking Oklahoma City in this game because some outlets are already up to nine and a half points.
08:46Can you imagine that?
08:47Basically a double digit line for game one of the NBA Finals with two good basketball teams.
08:51Like, where do I sign up?
08:52Like, I don't know if the Pacers can win, but boy, they certainly should be able to hang in and stay within double digits.
08:57But that line is talking to me right now that says you better get on Oklahoma City because it looked like it might be a blowout in game number one.
09:04The Pacers on the road this postseason six and two outright and underdog in all eight as a dog overall seven and three straight up and against the number.
09:14OKC has been at least a five point favorite in all 16 playoff games.
09:19They are seven and nine against the spread, but all seven of those covers coming at home where OKC is eight and one straight up throughout this playoff run with an average win margin of more than 25 points per game.
09:33Five of those seven covers have come when OKC is one by 30 plus points.
09:41Let's talk some other NBA news quickly here, DRS.
09:43I'm sure you are going to love to break down the Suns coaching search that is kind of focused on two associate head coaches in Cleveland under Kenny Atkinson.
09:54Johnny Bryant and Jordan Ott, your two finalists for the Suns.
09:58DRS, your thoughts?
10:00You'll get paid a good amount of money.
10:01Do not buy, even though it's usually a good investment to buy a property.
10:05Make sure you rank at a short rental lease agreement and make sure you're already hunting around handing out your resumes about a month or two into the season because these two guys I've never heard of.
10:13They will not last long in that spot.
10:15Matt Ishby is going to say, hey, guys, it's a rebuild.
10:17We'll be patient.
10:18He's not going to be patient.
10:19You will be canned within two years here.
10:21It's just the way it is.
10:22But make a lot of money in the short term and be an NBA coach.
10:25Not many people get to do that.
10:26Three weeks from tomorrow, the 2025 NBA draft and its opening round.
10:31Cooper flags still an incredibly hefty favorite minus 100,000 to go first overall to the Dallas Mavericks.
10:39Dylan Harper now minus 5,000 odds, slightly stronger to go second to San Antonio.
10:44DRS, let's talk.
10:45Pick number three.
10:46Ace Bailey from your family, your religion and Rutgers basketball.
10:50Plus 115 to go third overall to your 76ers.
10:55Is that still what you want Philadelphia to do at third overall?
10:59Look, I don't really do a ton of film on these, but just being excited about the prospect that you've been hearing about for a couple years.
11:04And it looks like you slotted right into that three spot and he's going to be there.
11:07They probably end up taking him.
11:08But it is interesting.
11:09Again, if you're an odds guy, like look at the difference between pick number three and pick number four with VJ Edgecombe out of Baylor.
11:14It's really close.
11:16It's not, hey, minus this, minus that, way, minus this.
11:19It's almost like a coin flip here, which I do think the Sixers probably end up taking Ace Bailey.
11:23The fans are pointing towards that as well.
11:25But we still have some time to go before the NBA draft.
11:27And those two numbers are really close here.
11:29But I would think Ace Bailey is coming to the Philadelphia 76ers.
11:33Some reports yesterday that Philly might be interested in a couple of freshmen.
11:37Come on, Mallywatch, of course, the big man from Duke.
11:40And Texas is Trey Johnson, who was that favorite to go fifth overall.
11:44Still two days away from the start of the 2025 NBA Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers.
11:52To help us take an early look at what we can expect throughout the NBA's championship set,
11:58Brian Fonseca is here on this Tuesday morning to break it all down.
12:03Fonseca, as always, we appreciate the time.
12:06Thank you for being here.
12:07Excited for the preview of the NBA Finals from you.
12:10As Zach Lowe says, this is why we do this, the NBA Finals.
12:15So I'm happy that we're finally here.
12:16And I'm probably more excited about these finals than other people seem to be who are caring about the ratings,
12:23which I think is stupid.
12:24We have talked about the TV ratings.
12:26I think, Fonseca, though, there is an argument to be made when you look at the odds.
12:31We hope this is a competitive series.
12:33And the odds maker is not necessarily expecting that.
12:36So if you want fans' buy-in, you've got to have a series that probably gets to six.
12:41Will we see that be the case?
12:43Fonseca, you see a minus 750 outright price on the Thunder.
12:47A hefty, hefty favorite to win an NBA championship for the first time in more than a decade and a half in Oklahoma City.
12:56In fact, for the Thunder to get this done in a gentleman's sweep is the most likely outcome, according to the odds makers.
13:03I don't think, Fonseca, you could argue the Thunder should not be even a strong favorite, but minus 750.
13:10Is it too much odds optimism backing OKC?
13:14I'll go back and forth on this.
13:16I really like the Pacers.
13:17I'm somebody who thought coming into the Knicks series, the longer this goes, the more benefits the Pacers.
13:24I hammered the Pacers in game one.
13:27I hammered them in game six and also had a future on them to win from prior rounds in the playoffs.
13:34That being said, the matchup here is interesting.
13:37But I can't, having watched the playoffs, definitively sit here and tell you that the Pacers have no shot of pushing this series to six or seven.
13:47I don't know if they're going to win.
13:48I kind of think that, you know, minus 750 for the Thunder, I get it.
13:52It also makes them one of the biggest NBA finals favorites we've seen, which in turn would mean this would be one of the biggest upsets in the finals that we've ever seen if the Pacers were to pull this off.
14:02But all Indy needs to do is split one of the first two games in Oklahoma City.
14:08And then we definitively have a series.
14:11I think that's where I'm at with it.
14:12And I think they're capable of doing that.
14:14OKC could occasionally have their duds.
14:17And on top of that, Indy, like, I think OKC will welcome the pace.
14:21Like, we can get into a little bit of the schematics of this, where I think Indy trying to run all the time could potentially backfire because OKC is just excellent at forcing turnovers.
14:31But I can't write, I can't write Indiana off.
14:34I just can't do it.
14:36If we're taking a look, too, Brian, at the series, which makes it fun.
14:38And for the people out there that aren't used to getting a full boat of, hey, I watch OKC all season long, or even the Indiana Pacers, can you give us a little bit of a breakdown of what OKC does well and also what the Pacers do well, but also them playing together and who would have the advantage on the court?
14:53OKC is one of the best teams ever at forcing you to make turnovers, while Indy has been one of the better teams I've seen playing at the pace that they have and not turning the ball over a ton.
15:06Tyrese Halliburton, if he were in the NFL, he'd be like the most accurate quarterback in the league.
15:11It's ridiculous.
15:12You know what I mean?
15:13And I think with the way that these two styles sort of mesh, I think we can get a lot of points in this series at times because OKC will figure out ways to force turnovers and perhaps welcome that pace.
15:27Although there's a world where they're uncomfortable with that pace because they like controlling the action.
15:32And Indiana can make you very uncomfortable if you're trying to run up and down with them.
15:35The Knicks learned this the hard way because they made the mistake of, hey, let's run with this team, get out in transition.
15:41But you can't you can't do that.
15:43But so much.
15:43It's like in boxing when someone's trying to force you into a firefight when you're trying to counterpunch them.
15:48Then after a few rounds of going to war with them, you're tired and you can't go back to your game plan of counterpunching because you fought their style.
15:54You gave the fight away.
15:55Like Indiana is excellent at doing that.
15:58And Indiana is also going to take what they're given.
16:01OKC is not going to give them a lot defensively.
16:04So it's going to be curious to see how that chess match plays out.
16:07Indiana is not like Boston, for example, who Boston's primarily trying to generate three point shots.
16:13Indiana is going to take whatever they can get.
16:16If a layup is open, taking that, not kicking it out to three.
16:19If a three point shot is open, great.
16:21If a mid range jumper is open, great.
16:23Their offense is balanced in that way.
16:24And then Oklahoma City just has guys like you can be you can be if you're Tyrese Halliburton, you're going to be seen by Alex Caruso and Lou Dort and Kayson Wallace and Shea Gildas Alexander at times and Shed Holmgren on a switch and Jalen Williams on a switch.
16:40It's going to be guy after guy after guy after guy.
16:42It's going to be ridiculous.
16:43So it's really about who can enforce their style first.
16:48And obviously that tilts towards OKC because they just have such a better defense.
16:53Probably the best defense we've seen in years.
16:55It seemed fun.
16:57Saka in the Eastern Conference Finals.
16:58The Pacers had a clear advantage in terms of balance and depth versus New York.
17:03Probably not the case here in the NBA Finals against OKC.
17:07As we look at the Finals MVP odds, Shea Gildas Alexander expected to add to the illustrious year of hardware.
17:14He is minus 550 to win Finals MVP.
17:17His Thunder team minus 750 to win an NBA championship.
17:21I ask you a two part question.
17:23If OKC wins, will it be Shea Gildas Alexander?
17:27Second part, if not SGA, what does that mean for the entirety of this series?
17:35I think it should be SGA, but I am interested in a future on Jalen Williams because matchup wise, I wonder who Neesmith is going to have to guard.
17:47We saw Neesmith on Brunson a lot.
17:50He got in some foul trouble, so Nembhard had to take it in game six and Nembhard was great.
17:54A matchup that has killed him historically.
17:57He was great in game six.
17:59It was one of the reasons Pacers finished off that finish off that sentence.
18:02And I do wonder who's going to get the Jalen Williams responsibility.
18:06He could play the three.
18:07He could play the four.
18:07He could even play some small ball five.
18:10He could play and guard multiple different positions.
18:13And I feel like the focus on SGA could potentially open things up for him.
18:17And it's not just his scoring, but it's also his rebounding and his playmaking.
18:20One of the plays that I've liked most in the playoffs and have probably played the most is his rebounds assist over, which is cashed more often than it hasn't.
18:28And I'll probably be on that again this series because OKC is a better rebounding team than Indiana.
18:33Indiana is not a great rebounding team.
18:34And they should out-rebound Indiana in this series.
18:37Maybe not to the degree that Knicks did, but they have Isaiah Harnstein and Sheth Holmgren, so it's possible.
18:41I'm intrigued by Jalen Williams.
18:43That's such a long number.
18:44I just think that number is going to drop immediately after, like, Games 1, Game 2.
18:49I think Jalen Williams has some real value there.
18:51It should be SGA, but I want that long shot because 3,300, you just don't know.
18:57Fonseca sticks around to talk plenty more around the association.
19:01DRS, enjoy the money live, my friend.
19:03More on the early line next.
19:05So you got Brian Fonseca's thoughts on the NBA Finals as a whole, where the matchup advantages lie in this series, and how we compare these two teams.
19:16Fonseca, it starts in two nights on a Thursday in Oklahoma City.
19:20The Thunder not just a hefty favorite to win the Larry O'Brien trophy, but a very strong favorite right from the jump.
19:26A nine-point favorite in game number one, with a total now on the rise to 231.5.
19:33How does the opening game of the 2025 NBA Finals begin, in your estimation?
19:39I haven't placed anything yet on game one.
19:43I don't know if I will.
19:44I want to get a feel for this.
19:46This does feel like a series where we get some overs, where we get a couple overs.
19:50231.5, I'm not – I don't know yet.
19:52But I do think, obviously, Indiana wants to push the pace, as we established, last segment, and as they established, literally since training camp.
20:00And then with Oklahoma City, it's just a matter of them generating offense, not just off of turnovers, but also being able to score in the mid-range, score, attack the paint, and things of that nature.
20:11They don't take a ton of threes.
20:13They don't always take a ton of threes.
20:14They can make some.
20:15But they're a team that's primarily going to turn their defense into offense, and they're going to do that successfully.
20:21And it's like, can Indiana continue to really take care of the ball, as they have in many games this season?
20:27Or will OKC force them into the trap that the Knicks sort of did in game five of that Eastern Conference Finals?
20:35Albeit, Indy kind of played that as a team that is like, oh, we'll take you back in Indiana.
20:41We have a game in hand.
20:42We're fine.
20:43So I don't think that was their best performance.
20:45But I think OKC is going to look at that and be like, all right, here's how we can generate some turnovers and actually, you know, force Indy's hand here, so to speak.
20:54A rest advantage slightly for the Thunder.
20:57Seven full-off days between winning the West in five games against Minnesota.
21:01Of course, they remain home before game number one of the NBA Finals on Thursday.
21:06But Indiana, also a pretty good cushion.
21:09Four full days off after winning in Indianapolis on Saturday in the Eastern Conference Finals.
21:14And, of course, game number one on Thursday night in OKC.
21:18Fonseca, throughout the entirety of the Knicks playoff run, you were working with the New York Post.
21:23You were doing those live watch parties.
21:25You were involved in each and every minute of New York's postseason march.
21:29That didn't lead to new heights, the first time in the Eastern Conference Finals for the Knicks in two and a half decades since the year 2000.
21:38But, of course, failing to get to the NBA Finals as a favorite in the Eastern Conference Finals against Indiana.
21:46So with the context involved, Fonseca, would you consider this season a success for the New York Knicks?
21:52I think it's a successful season that ended in disappointment.
21:58It's the first time they made it to the Conference Finals in 25 years.
22:02I cannot say that that's a failure.
22:05They overachieved, in my opinion, because I didn't think we were going to have a third round of watch parties.
22:11I thought we would be done in round two in that Celtics series where I thought the Celtics would win that in five games.
22:17And they got some fortunate, fortunate Celtics just shooting performances that they took advantage of by outplaying them in the fourth quarters, in the second half.
22:31And ultimately built the lead, and we're going to win that series before Jason Tatum got hurt.
22:36I don't think the injury sort of impacted it.
22:38I obviously give Boston a little bit more of a chance to come back from a 3-1 deficit if Tatum is there.
22:42But I didn't think they were going to pull that off even with him there.
22:46That being said, you lost a series in the Eastern Conference Finals while you were the favorites.
22:51And had home court against an Indiana team that I would say is beatable, but better.
22:58I think Indiana's better.
23:00They're better as a team.
23:00They don't have better top-end talent, but the way that they play, their depth, they're better coached.
23:05I think Tom Tibolo is a good coach, but I think Rick Carlisle is arguably the best coach in the NBA right now for the last two years.
23:13With respect to Eric Spolstra, who hasn't been as great the last couple years.
23:18But I think with the Knicks, it's a great season.
23:21Ended in disappointment.
23:23A lot of questions now.
23:25And we'll see what happens.
23:26I think they probably just make some moves around the edges and mostly run it back and try it again.
23:3130 seconds left here.
23:33Top priority then for the New York Knicks to elevate to that next stage next season.
23:38Depth.
23:39Depth.
23:39Depth.
23:40Depth.
23:41There's one thing that even the Celtics exposed, but definitely Indiana exposed.
23:45It's like the Knicks need to be comfortable going beyond seven, eight guys.
23:50Tibbs didn't do that until very late, but they need to develop some of their young guys to see if anyone can take a rotation spot, hit on some veteran minimums, and maybe your taxpayer mid-level exception as well.
24:02Brian Fonseca, tremendous stuff as always, my man.
24:05Thank you for being here on this Tuesday on the early line on SportsGrid.
24:10Absolutely.
24:10Anytime.
24:11Anytime.
24:11Anytime.
24:11Anytime.
24:11Anytime.
24:11Anytime.
24:11Anytime.
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