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00:00it's even more so in favor of the thunder for game two as of this moment it is 11 total is now
00:07227 and a hook again game one staying under that total dropping by about a possession drs 11 point
00:15spread in favor of okc a larger spread in favor of the thunder simply put are the odds makers wrong
00:23i don't know if they're wrong or right at this point because now we're in such a negative like
00:28downshift for okc it's like we should have had a runaway victory in game number one not only
00:33didn't cover you lost so the algorithm is like ah we'll try it again at this point and i'm willing
00:38to say like yes the numbers are there for a reason okc probably should give their best effort because
00:42you can't go down oh two but we've seen this story play out multiple times in the playoffs where the
00:46better team at home should walk away 2-0 they're down 0-2 before they leave could we actually get
00:52that and the possibility is right because i keep on bringing up this notion like before game one i
00:56told you i liked okc i thought they would win by double digits but i also had the other opportunity
01:00to say i don't think this game is within the spread i think it's a 15 point margin if okc wins
01:05or like indiana wins outright and end up winning outright but also under the assumption hey the
01:10pacers did every single thing perfectly and barely held off oklahoma city that wasn't the case
01:16the pacers brought their f game in the first half and won at oklahoma city who's the best team in the
01:21nba so now they're telling you all right forget about the nine and a half and the tens that were
01:25available in game number one let's just post that 11 and other outlets now sitting at 11 and a half
01:30let's see where that gets on sunday when the public starts to get involved but my vibes for this game
01:34are i'm still trusting oklahoma city but this wasn't as if like yes i understand it was a 15 point lead
01:40in the fourth quarter they collapsed under that number but it wasn't as if the pacers really like
01:44hey we had to play perfectly all game long just to come back that's not the case here i'm still willing
01:49to buy in a nice victory for okc but a different way for me to play it ben i'm taking okc in the
01:54first half i expect just like they were in game number one up double digits at the break you have
01:59to impose your home court advantage with the meaningfulness of this game which means you
02:03need to put indiana away where you can't give them thoughts of life in the fourth quarter as if they
02:08can come back a big first half surge for oklahoma city that's the way i'm betting game number two so far
02:13yeah and drs a lot of the thought of could indiana keep game one competitive could indiana
02:20stay tight within this series was how would the pacers look in the opening half last night
02:25they had 19 first half turnovers and they trailed by 12 okc easily covered as a first half favorite of
02:33five and a half in game number one and yet of course stumbling down the stretch now we have talked
02:38about the pacers having this playoff pedigree of masterful and magical comeback after masterful and
02:45magical comeback to find the history of the nba while making some of course as we have shared they
02:51are now five and three outright in this playoff run when they have trailed by 15 points in a game
02:58that is truly mind-boggling but the thunder as we have questioned all along drs what is the experience
03:05like in these critical significant spots they kind of have some familiarity with this situation
03:11as well in the first game of their second round set against the nuggets they led by 13 with six and
03:18a half minutes remaining in the fourth quarter cough that one up the nuggets stormed back to win
03:22and then had an okc respond which was our question entering that second game they won by 43 at home
03:30against the denver nuggets now are we going to see the same more than likely not is that the
03:36anticipation from the odds maker sure not the expectation drs from the public 77 of the bets
03:43backing indiana as the 11 point road underdog 67 of the money backing indiana as the 11 point
03:51road underdog and yet the line is steeper in favor of oklahoma city than it was even for game number one
03:59if you are reading into those sort of handicapping notions that should tell you a lot for game number
04:04two yeah that's why it's so hard because it was just so simple as okay oklahoma city won but the
04:10only one by eight points it's like okay figure it in that line does make some sense but the fact that
04:14you had that heavy double digit favorite lose outright in a game at home and not only say like
04:20okay hey we're a little bit wrong on that then that nine and a half ten let's move that down to eight
04:24and a half they went the opposite direction like okay we opened at nine and a half now we're going to open
04:28an 11 for game number two now granted we understand the task at hand is okc understands they cannot lose
04:34this game and then say all right we're going to go on the road now and expect to win this series i don't
04:38think that's going to happen but also at the same time you still have to be true to the number where
04:42the algorithm is telling you here's what these two teams differentiating are and a one game one-off
04:47per se let's just say is not going to throw that out of whack now also understand this if you get the
04:51pacers in this game even lose ben by two or three points in this game you're going to start to see
04:56that change because i guarantee you if we still have a series which i expect to in game number five
05:00we're not seeing 11s and 10 and a halves if we get competitive basketball over four straight games
05:05understand this but we're not going to have that one off and say oh that means the rest of the
05:10series is going to be really close and or indiana's the better team game number two is going to dictate
05:14a lot of the future pricing here for this series