Thunder Game Two Odds: Will OKC Bounce Back at Home?

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00:00it's even more so in favor of the thunder for game two as of this moment it is 11 total is now

00:07227 and a hook again game one staying under that total dropping by about a possession drs 11 point

00:15spread in favor of okc a larger spread in favor of the thunder simply put are the odds makers wrong

00:23i don't know if they're wrong or right at this point because now we're in such a negative like

00:28downshift for okc it's like we should have had a runaway victory in game number one not only

00:33didn't cover you lost so the algorithm is like ah we'll try it again at this point and i'm willing

00:38to say like yes the numbers are there for a reason okc probably should give their best effort because

00:42you can't go down oh two but we've seen this story play out multiple times in the playoffs where the

00:46better team at home should walk away 2-0 they're down 0-2 before they leave could we actually get

00:52that and the possibility is right because i keep on bringing up this notion like before game one i

00:56told you i liked okc i thought they would win by double digits but i also had the other opportunity

01:00to say i don't think this game is within the spread i think it's a 15 point margin if okc wins

01:05or like indiana wins outright and end up winning outright but also under the assumption hey the

01:10pacers did every single thing perfectly and barely held off oklahoma city that wasn't the case

01:16the pacers brought their f game in the first half and won at oklahoma city who's the best team in the

01:21nba so now they're telling you all right forget about the nine and a half and the tens that were

01:25available in game number one let's just post that 11 and other outlets now sitting at 11 and a half

01:30let's see where that gets on sunday when the public starts to get involved but my vibes for this game

01:34are i'm still trusting oklahoma city but this wasn't as if like yes i understand it was a 15 point lead

01:40in the fourth quarter they collapsed under that number but it wasn't as if the pacers really like

01:44hey we had to play perfectly all game long just to come back that's not the case here i'm still willing

01:49to buy in a nice victory for okc but a different way for me to play it ben i'm taking okc in the

01:54first half i expect just like they were in game number one up double digits at the break you have

01:59to impose your home court advantage with the meaningfulness of this game which means you

02:03need to put indiana away where you can't give them thoughts of life in the fourth quarter as if they

02:08can come back a big first half surge for oklahoma city that's the way i'm betting game number two so far

02:13yeah and drs a lot of the thought of could indiana keep game one competitive could indiana

02:20stay tight within this series was how would the pacers look in the opening half last night

02:25they had 19 first half turnovers and they trailed by 12 okc easily covered as a first half favorite of

02:33five and a half in game number one and yet of course stumbling down the stretch now we have talked

02:38about the pacers having this playoff pedigree of masterful and magical comeback after masterful and

02:45magical comeback to find the history of the nba while making some of course as we have shared they

02:51are now five and three outright in this playoff run when they have trailed by 15 points in a game

02:58that is truly mind-boggling but the thunder as we have questioned all along drs what is the experience

03:05like in these critical significant spots they kind of have some familiarity with this situation

03:11as well in the first game of their second round set against the nuggets they led by 13 with six and

03:18a half minutes remaining in the fourth quarter cough that one up the nuggets stormed back to win

03:22and then had an okc respond which was our question entering that second game they won by 43 at home

03:30against the denver nuggets now are we going to see the same more than likely not is that the

03:36anticipation from the odds maker sure not the expectation drs from the public 77 of the bets

03:43backing indiana as the 11 point road underdog 67 of the money backing indiana as the 11 point

03:51road underdog and yet the line is steeper in favor of oklahoma city than it was even for game number one

03:59if you are reading into those sort of handicapping notions that should tell you a lot for game number

04:04two yeah that's why it's so hard because it was just so simple as okay oklahoma city won but the

04:10only one by eight points it's like okay figure it in that line does make some sense but the fact that

04:14you had that heavy double digit favorite lose outright in a game at home and not only say like

04:20okay hey we're a little bit wrong on that then that nine and a half ten let's move that down to eight

04:24and a half they went the opposite direction like okay we opened at nine and a half now we're going to open

04:28an 11 for game number two now granted we understand the task at hand is okc understands they cannot lose

04:34this game and then say all right we're going to go on the road now and expect to win this series i don't

04:38think that's going to happen but also at the same time you still have to be true to the number where

04:42the algorithm is telling you here's what these two teams differentiating are and a one game one-off

04:47per se let's just say is not going to throw that out of whack now also understand this if you get the

04:51pacers in this game even lose ben by two or three points in this game you're going to start to see

04:56that change because i guarantee you if we still have a series which i expect to in game number five

05:00we're not seeing 11s and 10 and a halves if we get competitive basketball over four straight games

05:05understand this but we're not going to have that one off and say oh that means the rest of the

05:10series is going to be really close and or indiana's the better team game number two is going to dictate

05:14a lot of the future pricing here for this series

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