Game Two Preview: Betting Insights and Predictions

SportsGrid

Watch Game Two Preview: Betting Insights and Predictions - SportsGrid on Dailymotion

Transcript

00:00So then we try and wonder what's game two going to look like, and you know what?

00:06We don't have to make people wait all the way until the very back end.

00:09Have you bet anything yet for game two?

00:12Yes.

00:12Okay, so have I.

00:13Which we will, I don't know if I should spoil it.

00:16We'll treat the people, we can mention it later, but tell the people one of the things

00:22that you've already bet for game two and why.

00:23So that would be Chet Holmgren under 25.5 PRA, points, rebounds, assists combined.

00:30Okay, under.

00:30Under.

00:31Okay.

00:31So, and I'm not trying to, as Dave Sharapan, co-host here on the network likes to say,

00:37a little bit of a skill shot.

00:38I think there's a chance he goes over his points prop, but may still fall under when it comes

00:42to others.

00:42And again, I'm not saying I'm betting that outcome, but I do like that he gets the points

00:47going, it may not be in every other area.

00:49So that's where I'm starting things off.

00:50Just to say with that breakdown, if someone was telling you that, hey, I'm going to bet

00:57over this guy's PRA.

00:59I don't know if it's going to be with points.

01:01I don't know if it'll be with rebounds, but like some area will pop and get me over there.

01:05Everyone will be like, yep, sick.

01:06That's why we bet the combos.

01:08So I don't think it is ludicrous for you at all to say, look, he might score 20 and I

01:13still think I could cash this ticket.

01:14Obviously, you're hoping he doesn't score 20.

01:17Now, let me ask you this, because that's really interesting.

01:21What is leading you to his under?

01:26So when we're looking at the stats from last game, and this has nothing to do with the rotational

01:30issues that we have, not closing out the game, but six points, six rebounds is what

01:36he has.

01:36He had in game one, I should say.

01:38Two of nine.

01:39Didn't hit a three.

01:40Probably expect him to hit at least one three in this game.

01:42But we're seeing points prop at 14 and a half.

01:44I expect him to be able to get to not, you know, 14, 15, 18 kind of points, but I expect

01:51a 12 and 10 kind of line from him, 13 and 10.

01:56So that puts you too much on the edge of like, he probably getting a double-double and him

02:01really pushing.

02:01So if I were to say he's going over his points prop by a good margin, who else is falling

02:05behind their points prop?

02:07Now, you could make the case that it would be Lou Doherty's knocking at five threes again.

02:10But as we talked about, Williams, six of 19.

02:15So if he should be an efficient or more efficient shooter in game two, that's going to be taking

02:19away from someone else.

02:20So we can't have everyone scoring more and more.

02:23It can't be Chet and Williams being more effective and Lou Dort continuing at five.

02:27So someone's going to have to take a step back, and it's probably going to be Lou Dort plus

02:31GM Williams being a little bit more efficient.

02:33And Chet Holmgren will have more points on a volume perspective, but he's not going to be

02:37blowing past the 25 points alone.

02:39Yeah, here's the thing.

02:40His rebounding numbers, really since the Minnesota series began, I mean, it's six a game.

02:47It's a six-game sample size.

02:49You know, typically, you know me, ooh, bounce-back spot.

02:52It's not been there.

02:54So that means to go over 25, and you'd have to have a 20-6 game, which I think is a bit

02:59much.

02:59I mean, it would be a huge game.

03:02So this is interesting.

03:04I wouldn't want to fade Chet, because if I were in the room, I'd be like, hey, Mark.

03:09We got to get Chet the ball.

03:10He's playing 35 minutes, and quite frankly, you can figure the rest out, because he's

03:14one of our best players.

03:16But I also am not backing Chet, because I have no idea what they're going to do.

03:19And that's a fine spot.

03:20And I say this all the time, where, you know, on a day-to-day basis in the NBA regular season,

03:25it's like, listen, I'm not taking a 10-to-goo bowl unders.

03:28His PRA is 48-and-a-half, whatever it's going to be.

03:31Like, I'm not taking an over.

03:32I may not love his over, but I'm not taking an under.

03:35And this is just like, listen, you either want to be on board, or it's just a no bet.

03:38And you can see how this game plays out, maybe get a better indication.

03:41Maybe the scoring does pick up, and we can get a better line in game three.

03:45Totally understand that.

03:46So I think Chet's one of the really fascinating guys within this game.

03:51For me, the bet that I already placed is over 227-and-a-half.

03:56Okay.

03:57I was surprised when I saw that that total dropped.

04:01And it looks like it is already up to 228-and-a-half, which I know usually, hey, do you still like it there?

04:08Yes.

04:09I do not think that, look, you want to get the best of the number always, always, always, always.

04:16But I am not betting this because I expect it to land on 228 exactly.

04:20I did bet that over 227-and-a-half because I know that the game one line started at around 229 and at points was into the 230s.

04:29This, to me, categorizes as a double bounce back spot special.

04:34The Indiana Pacers just played their fifth-lowest scoring game of this postseason.

04:38So despite the win, this team could very well get another level going.

04:45If you look at how their scoring went quarter by quarter, 20, 25, 31, 35.

04:51The turnover stopped in the second half.

04:53If this team cleans up the turnovers over a full 48 minutes, the Indiana Pacers can get you 115 points.

05:02Well, now we're talking, well, does OKC win the basketball game, which I think they will.

05:06People would say, well, what happens if OKC blows them out?

05:09I think it does look closer to the 149-106 performance that they've put up against the Denver Nuggets or something along those lines.

05:17I think they score big time, and OKC really is in line to score big time.

05:21Under 40% from the field is ridiculous from this team.

05:25Chet and J-Dub combining 8 of 28 should not happen for this team.

05:30And I even think for SGA, this is how good of a series this guy's going to have.

05:34The 14 of 30 performance, he probably feels I can expand on a little bit, right?

05:39Now, he took more threes, made 50% of them, great from the line.

05:42Again, he scored 38.

05:44SGA's averaging 30 a game in this series, though.

05:46So that scoring is going to be there.

05:49And we know the Pacers can be scored on.

05:52I think this game looks, you know, in NFL we do, how's your projected score in the NBA?

05:56Not as much.

05:57But right now in my head, this is 127-118.

06:01I think this game is a rocket ship, quite frankly, here.

06:04I don't think this is a series where you're going to see double unders, really.

06:09I am all about this total here in game number two.

Category

Transcript

Recommended