Rays vs. Astros Game Analysis: Betting Tips & Stats

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00:00The Astros and the Rays in what is a basic pick-em,

00:03with Houston having a slight home edge.

00:05Minus 116 in the updated numbers on that money line.

00:08Total now up by a hook.

00:09Eight and a half for today's game between Tampa and Houston.

00:13What do you like here in the H-Town Showdown?

00:15One of my favorite pitchers in Major League Baseball on the mound,

00:17Ryan Mucho Gusto.

00:20You got to like that guy.

00:21And why do you like him?

00:22His last 70 batters had his face, guys.

00:23Check this out.

00:24A 281 ISO power number against.

00:27A weighted on-base percentage of 435 against.

00:30And you'll love this.

00:31A walk rate of 17%.

00:33That's unheard of.

00:35Like a terrible walk rate for a pitcher is like 9%.

00:37He's double that at this point.

00:39And usually you say to yourself, okay, Tampa Bay doesn't have great baseball,

00:42you know, great hitters per se.

00:43Well, those numbers have really jumped up this year.

00:45Why?

00:45Because they're actually playing a ballpark that allows for hits and home runs.

00:48Now, they're not there today.

00:49They're in Houston.

00:50That's still a great hitters ballpark even though it is a dome

00:52and we don't get the heat and humidity in there.

00:54Look at the first five batters he anticipated to go up against Gusto today

00:57who's a right-handed batter.

00:5836 at-bats, 71, 57, 66, and 62.

01:02A really good feel.

01:04212, 270, 204, 180, and 213.

01:07Those are the ISO power numbers against right-handed pitching.

01:09Look at the weighted on-base percentages.

01:11358, 420, 348, 375, and 324.

01:14For me, it's simple.

01:15It's a little bit juicy.

01:16Team total over with the Tampa Bay Rays today at 3.5.

01:20It was coming in this morning around like a minus 150, minus 145 price on FanDuel.

01:24I think it makes a lot of sense there where you're saying,

01:26I don't know if they can win,

01:27but you better be getting four runs off my guy, Mucho Gusto, out there.