Astros Playoff Hopes Hang on Pivotal Game Against Detroit

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00:00It could be over quickly here for the playoff hopes of the Houston Astros.

00:07Why?

00:08They lost yesterday.

00:09And today, they are first up on deck with a game that starts at 2.32 Eastern.

00:13Now, why it's 2.32, I don't know.

00:15It just sounds good.

00:16But we'll be able to watch some afternoon baseball once again.

00:19If we're lining the sides up, Houston is a heavy favorite.

00:21Right now at the FanDue Sportsbook, that number, a minus 174 price on the money line.

00:26The total in this game, Dovesy, sits at 7.5.

00:29Holton, the left-handed pitcher, will be on the mound for Detroit going up against

00:32Hunter Brown, the right-handed pitcher of the Houston Astros.

00:36The biggest favorite of the day, and just looking at the odds market, it now even went

00:40higher, Dovesy, from a minus 174 up to a minus 178.

00:45Are we in agreement?

00:46Or should I say, are you in agreement that that number should be going that high and

00:49Houston should be the prohibited favorite today?

00:53Houston should be the favorites, but there's no value behind that number.

00:55The juice worth a squeeze at the remit, mate.

00:58I think it's a little too high there.

01:00Minus 174, 7.5.

01:02I think we can expect to see a bit more offense than what we got out of the Astros there on

01:06Tuesday afternoon.

01:07They've been really consistent over the last month.

01:10I think they get back to scoring where they've been pretty strong in their, I guess, in their

01:15environment, their atmosphere.

01:16But for the Houston Astros, it's a get-right spot.

01:19I think they pick up game two.

01:20We highlighted earlier in the show, Donnie, it was the buzzsaw of Scouble yesterday that

01:24lifted the Tigers.

01:26I don't think Houlton is going to bring the same punch, and I do think we see a few more

01:29runs late in this game.

01:31I think Astros get off to a fast start.

01:32They control it.

01:33For the Tigers, they'll say, hey, what resources do we really want to throw into this late

01:38in game two and put eyes towards game three there back in Houston.

01:42So I think the Astros have got a really good chance of not just leveling up this series,

01:47but to take it two to one.

01:49We're still getting some decent money considering they lost the opener at home there yesterday.

01:54It is a kitchen sink game, too, so if Hunter Brown does struggle early, they're not going

01:57to let him ride it out to say, hey, Dubs, we can't use our bullpen because why?

02:00You don't have any more baseball games left in the regular season.

02:03Let's play a little bit of devil's advocate because if we're looking for runs, I'm going

02:07to give you pointers on why we can get that.

02:09Parker Meadows, Kerry Carpenter, Matt Deerling, Riley Green, and Winsteel Perez.

02:13Each one of those five batters we anticipate to start this game against right into pitching

02:17over the past month have done very well.

02:19350, 414, 345, 370, and 421 are those waiting, excuse me, weighted on base percentages.

02:26Now let's flip it over and say, all right, Donnie, how did the Houston batters do against

02:29left-handed pitching, particularly over the past month?

02:31Well, if you want to take out the game yesterday where they faced the best lefty in baseball,

02:35that's not the case today.

02:36You're going to get a middle of the road to me, left-handed pitcher on the mound.

02:39Having said that, though, here's the interesting part, right?

02:42You take a look at Altuve, Tucker, Alvarez, Bregman, and Diaz, one through five there,

02:47sensational, weighted on base percentages, and Iso power numbers.

02:49You go, look at that.

02:50You got two guys that you just told me have had a really, excuse me, two teams that have

02:54really good starts against these type of pitchers.

02:57But then you take a look at Tyler Holton on the season, 356 batters he's faced in Iso

03:02against 106, a weighted on base percentage, a 217.

03:06You flip it over to Hunter Brown, let's just go his last 30 days, 96 batters faced here

03:11in 078 Iso and a weighted on base percentage of 267.

03:15So something has to give today.

03:17Either the batters are going to stay on par with what I just told you the statistics are,

03:21or the pitching is going to win out.

03:23It is a high leverage situation for Houston, which means all hands on deck, and certainly

03:28we're going to see how that one does play out here.

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