- 5/28/2025
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00:00Game number four tonight in Indianapolis of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Pacers and the Knicks.
00:06New York rallying from down by as many as 20 points late in the second quarter before that halftime break
00:12to pull off their third 20-point comeback of this NBA playoff run.
00:17New York winning game number three outright as a slight road underdog in Indy 106-100.
00:24How has it changed the tenor of this series in the Eastern Conference Finals
00:28where the Pacers, still at home for game number four, DRS in Indy, have a 2-1 series advantage.
00:34The Pacers also a two-point home favorite tonight inside Cambridge Fieldhouse for game number four
00:40with a total of 220 and a hook.
00:44DRS, we looked at game number four briefly early on.
00:48Indiana, still at home, two-point favorite, trying to take that 3-1 series advantage.
00:54What is your approach going to be for game number four of the Eastern Conference Finals?
00:58I do think the Pacers win, but again, just knowing how betting works and some of the strategies that you would use,
01:04that's a stone-cold line.
01:05You say, boy, the Knicks are getting a lot of respect, and you probably should take them on the money line.
01:09But just looking at the way the game played out, the previous one, it's like, all right, well, what's the flow going to be?
01:14Are we going to have a big lead for one team and a huge comeback at the end of it?
01:16I mean, possibly we could.
01:17We've seen a lot of that in the playoffs so far.
01:19But I always lean towards the home team.
01:20The Pacers are good.
01:21I think they're a better team than the New York Knicks, and they're home, and you're basically asking them to win this game, Ben,
01:26by a bucket and come away with a victory.
01:29Like, that's really hard to pass up.
01:30And also, which summer players are you going to focus on?
01:32On a player's prop?
01:33Is it a rebound prop?
01:35Do we expect the same type of expectations?
01:37Is it more team basketball?
01:38For Indiana, again, it's going to be one-on-one.
01:40And Jalen Brunson saying, if we're going to win this series, it's going to be on my back.
01:43I'll be more than happy in game number four to shoot 30 times in this one and ice out the rest of my teammates.
01:47So, for me, even though, like, buyer beware, you see that line, I still find myself wanting to take the Indiana Pacers.
01:54Because, again, home team, better team.
01:57Why not?
01:58They're going to cover touchdown.
02:00Absolutely so, DRS.
02:01Again, when you look at the Indiana Pacers, who have also pulled off their fair share of cardiac and historic comebacks here in this NBA playoff run,
02:10they were a point-and-a-half favorite against the New York Knicks.
02:12It was the first time that Indiana was favored to win an NBA playoff game since game number five in that series clincher
02:19in the wild finale of the opening round in OT against the Milwaukee Bucks.
02:24The Pacers now at home throughout this playoff run are 4-2 straight up,
02:29but they have only been booked as a favorite in four of those six games.
02:33They are 2-2 straight up and against the spread.
02:37Their two wins as a favorite are the two, or two of their three wins as a favorite are two games that they have covered,
02:44games one and two against the Bucks in that opening round matchup.
02:48Again, what really stands out to me, DRS, is some of what you said.
02:51We're kind of with the public from a betting perspective here.
02:5456% of the money, around 54% of the bets overall in terms of volume,
03:00on the spread backing the Pacers at home tonight.
03:03Should that be surprising?
03:05No, Indiana's a great basketball team.
03:06They have home-floor advantage, but just with how this series has gone,
03:11with how the postseason has gone in large part,
03:14and with the New York Knicks pulling off that dramatic comeback in game three,
03:17you would almost think the public goes,
03:19well, anybody can win.
03:21No lead is safe.
03:22The New York Knicks can win this game outright and tie us up at two games apiece.
03:26And yet, so far, the stats on the FanDuel Sportsbook say the other thing.
03:30No, and I agree.
03:31Like, that's the way it should be set up in this game.
03:33Like, I can't believe that the Pacers are only a two-point favorite here.
03:35They should be able to win at home, go up 3-1, and eventually ice out this series.
03:39But then you take a look at the New York Knicks, who in the first round,
03:42you know, did get a good fight out of the Detroit Pistons.
03:44The second round, Jason Tatum was there for a good portion of that series,
03:47and it was still going to be 3-1 at that point, regardless of how it finished out,
03:50where the Knicks took care of business in game number six.
03:52Then you head in and say, okay, let's just get one of those two games at home.
03:55They couldn't do that.
03:56And then steal game number three.
03:57Is it more of a mirage?
03:58Was it the huge comeback for Indiana that shouldn't have been there?
04:01Was it the huge comeback for the Knicks that shouldn't have been there?
04:04Like, when are we going to get back to even in this series and say, okay,
04:07two best teams playing, no monster letdowns, no monster comebacks,
04:10and who's the better team tonight?
04:11I always look for the home team, as I said again, but also team basketball.
04:15You don't know.
04:16Like, it could be tonight, you know, a Halliburton-type night.
04:18It could be a Neesmith-type of night.
04:20It could be a Miles Turner-type of night.
04:21I'll tell you the one thing.
04:22If Jalen Brunson doesn't have a good night, the Knicks don't win.
04:25And you don't have that sort of setup here for the Pacers.
04:27I think their complete depth from starting lineup to bench is better than the New York
04:31Knicks, and they're at home.
04:32You're asking them to win by a bucket and continually getting disrespected.
04:36Like, coming into the playoffs, nobody was talking about the Pacers.
04:38Here they're on the Eastern Conference Finals.
04:40We're about to go up 3-0, lost that game.
04:41Now about to say, let's go 3-1 in this series and take that big advantage.
04:45And I see that line.
04:46I'm saying, hey, you know what?
04:47The algorithm is still pointing towards the Knicks, which is why they're only getting two.
04:50Look, I'm still thinking early in the day today, it's got to be Pacers.
04:53Again, you're looking basically at an outright price, minus 132, minus 136 on the money line
04:59with that updated number.
05:00Not all that juicy or a chalky price to pay on a team to win outright at home and take
05:05that commanding 3-1 series lead.
05:07Let's talk total really quickly, DRS.
05:09Yeah.
05:09220 and a hook.
05:11Opening two games of this series, we saw a lot of scoring.
05:15In game number three, we expected the same, 223.5, 224.
05:19It stayed well under, despite a pretty fast start in the opening quarter.
05:23And, of course, by the time we got to the halftime break, things kind of calmed down
05:27in those final two quarters with the Knicks winning outright 106-100.
05:31How much offense are you expecting tonight with what looks to be our lowest total so far
05:36of the four games in this series?
05:37Again, earlier in the series, I like to look at more points, and rightfully so.
05:40Later in the series, where you can afford to lose games one and game two.
05:44You can't afford to lose game number three if, let's just say, you are down 0-2,
05:48which you saw the Knicks with a great defensive performance in that game, what,
05:51106-100 final.
05:53Now you look forward to game number four.
05:54Same type of situation.
05:55Do you want to be more free-flowing for the Pacers?
05:57Yes.
05:58But the game sometimes doesn't dictate it because the Knicks are probably going to
06:01slow it down, more one-on-one basketball, make every possession count,
06:04and try to play as good a defense as they can possibly get.
06:06So, for me, do I love the 220 going under and a half, 220 and a half and going under?
06:10Not necessarily, but if I always stick to that sort of like true tied and tested here,
06:15it's like early in the season, early, excuse me, in the series, you get more points,
06:19or at least at more tempo points, and the later in the series, it's more defensive
06:22struggle.
06:23I probably lean towards the under 220 and a half tonight.
06:25I do as well.
06:26And again, I still think an under pace favors the New York Knicks.
06:30The Pacers want to live up to their name and get up and down the floor.
06:34As we look at the series situation, Indiana still up 2-1, an ever-so-slight favorite
06:39in game number four.
06:40The Pacers also remain a minus 220 outright favorite to win the Eastern Conference crown.
06:45Still think there's value there on the Pacers.
06:48Still believe the Pacers land a game and a half in the series spread.
06:51To win this series, DRS by no later than game number six makes a lot of sense at minus
06:55118.
06:56Is that still how you see this series playing out?
06:58Yeah, I think it's, again, an extended series here.
07:00I don't think we're going, you know, let's just say the Knicks win this game tonight.
07:04Still, you're going to have a game come back there in Indy.
07:07Even if Indy wins tonight, I do think the Knicks would win game number five, pushing a game
07:11number six.
07:11So, a six or seven that's going to end.
07:13And, again, I'm still picking the Pacers.
07:15I think they're the better team.
07:16And I do, quite frankly, think they win tonight, which would be 3-1.
07:19But the Knicks aren't going to go away.
07:20They're not going to go home to Madison Square Garden with such a great chance to get the
07:23NBA Finals.
07:23Like, ah, you know what?
07:24It's 3-1.
07:25Let's just make it 4-1 and get out of town.
07:26I think they win game number five to at least get to a game number six.
07:29And then, hey, you're just going to rely on your superstar players at that point to try
07:32to guide you through.
07:33It is, again, pretty crazy of what we have seen so far in this postseason.
07:38The Knicks have come back from down by 23 times, NBA playoff record.
07:42The Pacers have come back from down 20 twice.
07:45We had not seen a team prior to this postseason pull that off multiple times in a single playoff
07:50run.
07:50We now have both of our teams squaring off in the Eastern Conference Finals, accomplishing
07:55that historic feat.
07:56And these teams have done that on the road, DRS.
07:59The New York Knicks are 6-1 away from Madison Square Garden, despite all the theater and
08:04the celebrity that we have seen inside the world's most famous arena throughout this playoff
08:09run here.
08:10Of course, we start this kind of game with a head-to-head matchup of our marquee players.
08:15Not Jalen Brunson's best game in game number three.
08:18It was really Carl Anthony Towns in that fourth quarter, scoring 20 of his team-high 24.
08:23Brunson only finishing with 23.
08:25And Tyrese Halliburton was the leading scorer for Indiana.
08:28But that's not really the story for the Pacers either.
08:31Indiana does it based off depth.
08:32Only four guys reaching double figures in game number three.
08:36Halliburton tonight, 21-1.
08:37And Brunson's still up there, flirting with 30 at 29-1.
08:40Yeah, guys also like Pascal Siakam, 19-1.
08:43But if you're just looking at the two superstars on either side, I do think both of those guys
08:47should go over tonight.
08:48Whoa, whoa, that probably means over 220.
08:50Not necessarily, because sometimes you look at a Jalen Brunson and say to yourself, Ben,
08:54if we're going to lose this game or this series, let's just say, I'm at least going to sit in the
08:57all season.
08:58I did everything I tried and could.
08:59I shot 30 times on the road in game number four.
09:01I only made nine of those.
09:02I'll live with that.
09:03But you know what he can't live with, Ben?
09:04Shooting nine or 11 times in a game where they lose.
09:07I look for Brunson.
09:08They have a high usage rate tonight.
09:09And he should be able to get to 30 points.
09:11Only 18 field goal attempts in game number three.
09:14Only 18 is pretty considerable for Jalen Brunson.
09:17So as we get you ready for game number three, no notes from the production staff, but maybe
09:23some notes from you on how you are approaching not just game number four tonight in Indianapolis,
09:28but the entirety of the Eastern Conference Finals.
09:31Now, the Pacers are up 2-1.
09:33Indiana winning both games on the road in the Big Apple inside Madison Square Garden.
09:38And seemingly, we're about to sweep the Knicks for 42 minutes of game number three on Sunday
09:43night before New York rallied coming back from a third time this playoff run from down
09:49by as many as 20 points.
09:51Has it changed your opinion on the Eastern Conference Final?
09:54Has it changed your mind on which team wins the East and heads to the NBA Finals?
09:59That's the question for you here in Fade the Public.
10:08At SportsGrid on Twitter, who will win the Eastern Conference Finals in the Association?
10:13The Pacers or the Knicks?
10:17And DRS, for most of the public, I don't really think the dramatic comeback for New York in
10:21Game 3 has changed the result for this series overall in the public's mind.
10:26Nearly 79% of the votes backing Indiana.
10:31Now, I think it's an interesting thing when you have a New York team in this spot, right?
10:36Because of their big market appeal, there are either a ton of people backing the Knicks,
10:41wanting the best for New York in the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time in two
10:46and a half decades, or they become a very easy team to root against.
10:50Ah, enough of this Chalamet guy and Tracy Morgan on my screen.
10:54There is also just the idea that Indiana has the 2-1 series advantage.
10:59Are you surprised at all by 79% of the public thinking the Pacers just comfortably win the
11:04Eastern Conference Finals?
11:05I'm not surprised the public is picking the Pacers here, to be honest.
11:08But I am surprised that the public is actually picking the Pacers at a close to an 8 out
11:11of 10 clip right now, which is impressive.
11:13But also understand this.
11:15Entering into the season, into this playoff series, minus 144 price as the favorite for
11:19the New York Knicks with home court advantage.
11:21Like, ooh, man, the Pacers getting a lot of respect there.
11:24Pacers win two games on the home court there for the New York Knicks.
11:27Then game number three exploded on the end.
11:29But there's still a 2-1 series lead, a game on their home court, and their favorite here.
11:33I do think the Pacers win this series, but I'm surprised that the Knicks aren't really
11:37drumming up more business, 25%, 35%, 45%, because they are a good ball club, and it's
11:43not over, and they just won game number three.
11:45Can they stake more momentum in game number four?
11:47I'm just agreeing with the fans right now.
11:5080% of us that are lined up here, we know how that typically works out when the public
11:53say, hey, 80%, that's a for sure guarantee at this point.
11:57But it is the Pacers.
11:58They're the better team.
11:58I think they win tonight, go up 3-1, and yes, they will win the series.
12:01But how about the public, man?
12:03Eight out of every 10 clicks coming in on the Pacers.
12:05Which is kind of crazy.
12:06Again, not exactly what we would expect based on how the public would vote here, at least
12:12for it to be this decisive.
12:14Again, Indiana is up 2-1.
12:16Indiana is at home tonight in Indianapolis.
12:18The Pacers are a home favorite.
12:20But it's not like they're a 7.5 point home favorite expected to take that commanding 3-1
12:25series advantage over New York in the most comfortable of fashions.
12:28They are only a 2-point favorite tonight in minus 136.
12:32Now that updated money line price.
12:34But DRS, the public fully buying in on Indiana for the series situation.
12:39And if you are that confident, minus 220 for that level of confidence is not the most staunch
12:46price we have ever seen to be paid.
12:48And you take everything out of the equation.
12:50This could go 5 games.
12:51This could go 6 games.
12:52Heck, Indiana could even go into MSG for a second consecutive season and win a game 7
12:58inside the world's most famous arena.
13:00Minus 220 for all of those potentials entering game 4 tonight.
13:04Not the worst idea ever.
13:06No, it's not.
13:07And you take a look at the price points there from a Knicks perspective at the plus 184.
13:10If you figure that they can win a game, understand this.
13:13Still 3 games left.
13:14They're tied up 2-2.
13:15Home court advantage in Madison Square Garden.
13:17And they'll look to sort of slay that beast and say, we'll take care of game number 5.
13:20And if we need a game number 7, we'll win it this year in our own building.
13:24But also understanding that the way the Knicks have gotten here, superstar play, starting
13:285, playing a ton of minutes, maybe we start to see a little bit more of that bench creep
13:32in as we saw in game number 3 to make an addition.
13:35Now also, we expect Brunson to play better.
13:37We expect Brunson to shoot a lot here tonight.
13:39His car, Anthony Towns, up to the task at this point.
13:41But it is fun to see, not the superstars, particularly talking about the Indiana Pacers, maybe coming
13:46off the bench, having big games.
13:47T.J. McConnell dropping double digits, adding that spark plug off the bench.
13:51Such a, like a thorn in the side of other teams here.
13:54Is it going to be Halliburton tonight?
13:55With Pops in the stands tonight, watching, does that give him an extra boost tonight?
13:59Pascal Siakam has had some amazing numbers already in this series.
14:02There's a lot of different players the Pacers can use to attack.
14:05So we'll find out who those props are going to be.
14:07But once again, shocking that the Knicks just wouldn't be all Jalen Brunson's up tonight
14:13for me.
14:13I expect a big, now does it equate to him scoring 30 points automatically?
14:16No, it doesn't.
14:17Usage rate will absolutely be there for me.
14:20Only 18 field goal tries for Brunson in game number three.
14:23Six of 18.
14:25He had 23 points.
14:26Cat actually had more, finishing with a team high 24.
14:30A game high 24.
14:31Because Tyrese Halliburton was Indiana's leading scorer.
14:34He only had 20 points.
14:35Again, you see the numbers there.
14:37The Knicks staged a dramatic comeback.
14:39And Brunson was well under what the expected points prop is for game four tonight.
14:4323 points, 29 and a half the number tonight.
14:4621 and a half the number for Tyrese Halliburton, who has gone over that points prop with 31
14:52in game number one in the dramatic game tire at the end of regulation.
14:56But it's not like how he's been going over that number the entirety of this postseason.
15:01Now, 13 playoff games for Indiana.
15:03Donnie, only four times that Halliburton has gone over that points prop of 21 and a half.
15:08Why?
15:09Because the Pacers are built with strength in numbers, with the depth and the balance
15:14they possess.
15:14We mentioned it.
15:15In their game three loss, only four players reaching double figures.
15:19That the fewest amount of players scoring at least 10 points for Indiana in any of their
15:2313 playoff games.
15:25In nine of their 10 wins, at least six Pacers have reached double figures.
15:30So they don't necessarily need Tyrese Halliburton to score 25 plus.
15:34They need Tyrese Halliburton to score 15 and probably have at least nine assists.
15:38And then Pascal Siakam having 15 and Myles Turner having 15.
15:42And Aaron Neesmith, who is likely a game time decision tonight, having 12 to 14 points
15:46in Andrew Nembhardt.
15:48And the story goes on.
15:49That's Indiana's model of success here to take that 3-1 advantage over New York.
15:53And that'll be big if Neesmith is damaged, good center, or doesn't play.
15:56That certainly would be a big advantage here over to the New York Knicks, who will be
15:59pressing all in because this is a must-win game.
16:02But Ben brings up a great point here.
16:03It's team basketball where any one of these guys can wind up in the mid-20s.
16:07Any one of these guys can wind up in the mid-20s.
16:09You just don't know that.
16:10Like, you're not going to say tonight, like, well, I know Tyrese Halliburton's going to
16:12shoot 22 times from the floor.
16:14No, you don't.
16:14You know Brunson is.
16:15You know Mikel Bridge is going to get his shots.
16:17You know Carl Anthony Towns is going to get his shots tonight.
16:19This will be interesting to see how the get-off is going to be in the first quarter.
16:23Is it going to be an overwhelming effort for the Pacers, up seven, eight points at the end
16:27of the first quarter?
16:28Is it going to be the Knicks saying, we're going to carry that momentum from game number three
16:31and show you why we're the better basketball team?
16:33Taking advantage of the first quarter and the second quarter leading in the halftime
16:36will be massive.
16:37The winner of the first half, Ben, will win this basketball game tonight.
16:41Oh, love the confidence, DRS.
16:42We'll break it down even further later on in this final hours.
16:46Game number four tonight in the Eastern Conference Finals in Indianapolis.
16:50The Pacers, a 2-1 series advantage, but coughing up a 20-point lead late in the opening half
16:56in game number three.
16:57A dramatic rally by the New York Knicks, their third time winning a basketball game this NBA
17:03postseason, trailing by at least 20 points.
17:07Of course, that and NBA playoff records.
17:09So what does it mean for the Eastern Conference Finals, and what can we expect tonight in game
17:13number four?
17:14Indiana, an ever-so-slight home favorite, two-point favorite DRS, minus 136, that updated money
17:20line price, and a total that now stands at 221.
17:24What is your approach to game number four tonight in the Eastern Conference Finals?
17:27Yeah, I still do think it's a clear path for the home team, but we're waiting on some
17:30injury information for Neesmith, which, again, got banged up in the previous game.
17:34That's never a good thing to have one of your starters and a key contributor that might be
17:37down in a pivotal game such as this one, where you can really take a stranglehold on the
17:41series.
17:41But you are taking a look at that price point at the FanDuel Sportsbook here in New Jersey,
17:45opening up at 2.5.
17:46Now sits at 2 here on game day.
17:48The price point here for the total, which we were previewing to start the show at 220.5,
17:52is now up to 221.
17:53So people banking that, maybe we're going to see more points than not at this point.
17:57But still, outside of the injury, which may be effective a little bit, there's no excuses.
18:02Like, the guys get injured during the game, guys get injured, guys miss games.
18:05You still don't have any excuses.
18:06Your home team in your own building that let one slip away in game number three, I still
18:10lean tonight towards the Pacers.
18:11I think they win this series and end up winning it.
18:13But by the way, as I said, the Knicks ended up taking this game.
18:16I think the Knicks then end up winning this series because they have home court advantage in
18:19their favor.
18:19The pressure is probably more on the Pacers tonight than the Knicks.
18:23Wait, Donnie, the Knicks lose tonight, it's over.
18:25I understand that.
18:26But the pressure for the Pacers to say, we can't win two games in Madison Square Garden,
18:31then not even get a split in our home gym at this point before we head back to New York
18:34City.
18:35They must win this game tonight, and I'm banking on that.
18:37So we'll dive into this game, DRS, from the player prop perspective, the individuals that
18:41will impact the outcome.
18:42But let me ask you about that.
18:43I don't think we would be surprised by any means if the Knicks won outright tonight, even on
18:48the road, New York on the road throughout this playoff run, 6-1 straight up.
18:53Of course, they have pulled off all three of their dramatic 20-plus point comebacks on
18:58the road throughout this postseason run as well.
19:02And they're only a two-point road underdog tonight.
19:05So you said whoever wins game four tonight wins this series.
19:08Obviously, it would make a ton of sense for Indiana holding that commanding 3-1 series
19:12advantage.
19:13New York would have home floor advantage in what would be a best of three if they equal up
19:17tonight at two games apiece.
19:20So if you have any belief in New York, would you bet them right now as the series underdog?
19:26Or would you wait to see the result of game number four, where they might flip back to
19:30an ever-so-slight favorite because they would have that home floor advantage again?
19:33Yeah, I'm betting them tonight, then.
19:33Because if I think they're going to win this series, they have to win tonight.
19:36Now, if you're down 3-1, can you still come back?
19:38Hey, we win game number five, and then we've got to win game number six, end game number seven,
19:41beating the Indiana Pacers three straight games.
19:44I don't think that's going to happen.
19:45So if you like the Knicks, plus 184 is the best you're going to get.
19:49Well, not necessarily if they lose, but if they lose, you're not cashing in a ticket because
19:52they're not going to win this series.
19:54I don't care what that price point turns out to be.
19:56So if you like the Knicks, I would take them before this game starts because they will be
19:59the favorite after that.
20:00A best of three, two games in Madison Square Garden, and I would think they would win this
20:04series at that point.
20:05Injuries aside, like, oh, well, you know, Jalen Brunson, yeah, of course, if Jalen Brunson
20:09goes down, they're probably not going to win this series.
20:11But just the way you're playing it right now, you should be taking the Knicks immediately
20:14because if they don't win tonight, they are not winning three straight games against the
20:17Pacers.
20:18And again, if you're believing in Indiana, who has that home court advantage and is a
20:22slight favorite tonight in game four and already has a 2-1 series lead, is that a cheap price
20:28at minus 220 for the Pacers to win this series outright in advance to the NBA finals?
20:34We will dive deep into the player prop category.
20:36Who wins tonight?
20:37The depth of New York, that was the case in game number three, or as we have seen throughout
20:42this postseason, the depth and balance for Indiana.
20:46We'll talk Aaron Neesmith, and of course, we'll talk the two superstars at the point guard
20:50spot, Tyrese Halliburton for the Pacers, Jalen Brunson on the other side for the New York
20:55Knicks.
20:55We continue our preview of game number four of the Eastern Conference Finals, up next on
21:00The Early Line.
21:01Live right here on The Early Line on Sports Grid, he is Donnie Wright's side.
21:05I am Ben Stevens.
21:06The prop perspective for game number four tonight in Indianapolis of the Eastern Conference
21:11Finals.
21:12Of course, the individuals that will impact the outcome, and as that DRS has said, a
21:16decisive game number four, maybe deciding the ultimate conclusion of this series between
21:21Indiana and New York.
21:23Of course, it starts with our two stars, Jalen Brunson for New York, Tyrese Halliburton for
21:28Indiana.
21:29Maybe some additional confidence for Halliburton tonight with his father, John, back in the
21:34arena at Game Bridge Fieldhouse.
21:36Not on the court, not anywhere close to that baseline.
21:40He will be up in a suite tonight in Indy.
21:4321 and a half, the points prop for Halliburton.
21:4529 and a half, the points prop for Jalen Brunson, who had scored at least 36 DRS in the opening
21:52two games of this series for New York, but the Knicks lost both of those games.
21:56Only had 23 on a rather poor shooting night.
21:59Six of 18 from the floor in game number three, the game's leading score, and a leading score
22:03for New York.
22:04That was Carl Anthony Towns finishing with 24.
22:07Let's start with Brunson.
22:08What can we expect out of New York's leader if they are to even up this series?
22:11To have the ball in his hands the entire way through, and that's the way superstars are
22:15going to act.
22:15In a two-to-one series where you have a deficit and you're on the road, I doubt it's going
22:19to be let me have pass first Jalen Brunson.
22:22What's more likely to happen?
22:23Brunson to get double-digit assists or score over 30 points?
22:26For me, in a game that's as decisive as this one, it's going to be more surprising that
22:30he gets the assists, because why?
22:31Not that he doesn't want to facilitate the other guys if they're open and wide-open shots,
22:34but you want this game played through your hands here, and if you lose, you want to be
22:39understanding, like, it wasn't my fault.
22:40Oh, no, it was my fault, and I can live with that in the offseason if it turns out that
22:44the Knicks can't overcome this deficit against the Pacers.
22:46So I look at those two price props, and I say to myself, 29 and a half, I'm more likely
22:50to go over that number with Brunson, even though it's eight points higher than Halliburton,
22:54because Halliburton can have a good night tonight, and if Neesmith doesn't play, maybe there's
22:56more three-point shots and more shot attempts that Halliburton has to take as a guard, but
23:00for me, it's Brunson.
23:01Again, sometimes just keep it simple.
23:03What's more surprising?
23:04Brunson with 19 or 39?
23:06It would be more surprising he scored 19 for me tonight.
23:08No doubt about it.
23:0918 field goal tries for Jalen Brunson.
23:11That's it in game number four.
23:13Now, you might hear me say 18.
23:15That's it.
23:15Yeah, it's only the fifth time in 15 playoff games for the Knicks so far in this playoff
23:21run.
23:21Jalen Brunson has taken fewer than 20 field goal attempts.
23:26There is so much volume for Brunson.
23:28If I was looking at Tyrese Halliburton from a scoring perspective, I would look more at
23:32the three-point prop because the volume is there for Halliburton as well.
23:36At least eight attempted threes in all three games in this series for Indiana.
23:41And despite being the Pacers' leading scorer, DRS, in game three, finishing with 20, Tyrese
23:46Halliburton in 13 playoff games for Indiana has only gone over 21 and a half four times.
23:52He doesn't need to put up 25-30 each and every game.
23:55In fact, that's probably not the recipe that Rick Carlisle would enjoy.
23:59It is the balance and the depth for the Pacers, as we will discuss in just a matter of moments.
24:04I would much more look at eight and a half dimes for Tyrese Halliburton, who had seven
24:08in game three, his series low.
24:10He had 11 dimes exactly in each of the first two games of this series.
24:16And that's part of what Tyrese Halliburton does so well.
24:19He is the facilitator.
24:20He is the orchestrator of this offense.
24:23And Donnie, when you look at the Pacers in their 10 playoff wins, 10 and three so far
24:27in this postseason, in their 10 playoff wins, nine of the 10, Indiana has had six players
24:33score in double figures.
24:35They only had four players reach double figures in game number three.
24:39That was the fewest amount getting at least 10 points for Indiana in this playoff run.
24:44It's why you look at Pascal Siakam.
24:46It's why you look at Miles Turner.
24:47And it's why you look at Aaron Neesmith, who is listed as a true game time decision.
24:52Game time decision.
24:53A great show here on the network.
24:55But a game time decision.
24:56That is Aaron Neesmith tonight.
24:58Does have a points prop listed.
24:59Always a positive sign.
25:00And I'm glad you brought up Aaron Neesmith.
25:02Because we are expecting big performances.
25:04Possibly with Tyrese Halliburton.
25:05Aaron Siakam as well.
25:06Miles Turner.
25:07But Aaron Neesmith, you take a look at game number one.
25:09He went off from three-point line.
25:10Was the sole reason, probably, why the Pacers were able to come back and win that.
25:13But I believe he dropped down to, what, eight points the next game?
25:15And even lower than that?
25:16Or was it double digits?
25:17What was his game number two score?
25:18I'd have to look that up.
25:19But he had 12 points.
25:20Okay.
25:21So you go 30 to 12.
25:22And then gets injured in the last game.
25:24And I see an 11 and a half.
25:25If he...
25:26Players want to play in the playoffs.
25:28Specifically pivotal moments here.
25:30But if you're not all there.
25:31Can Aaron Neesmith, on whether it's his knee, ankle, whatever they're trying to share.
25:34And he's hobbled.
25:35How many minutes is he going to play?
25:36How effective is he going to be on offense?
25:38But I do think he's going to play tonight.
25:39This will be one of those cameo games where he plays under 20 minutes.
25:42And just tries to fill in some six, eight, nine points.
25:45I really like the under 11 and a half.
25:47I love betting against injured players.
25:49Where there's no guarantee that they're going to play.
25:50And if he doesn't play, the bet does become voided.
25:52But if he does play, hey, five to six minutes just didn't work out in my favor.
25:55And scores two points.
25:56That's an easy victory.
25:57And it's also not like a superstar player.
25:59Like, Jalen Brunson's 29.
26:01And they go, okay, well, he's injured.
26:02And it's 24 and a half.
26:03Like, oof.
26:04Well, he's still going to try to shoot and still get a, you know, not much of a discount.
26:07There's not really a discount on Aaron Neesmith at 11 and a half.
26:10Whether he's healthy or not at this point.
26:11What are the expectations for him?
26:12Maybe a great night.
26:1315 points.
26:14So, I'd look for that under 11 and a half.
26:16And I think it does make some sense here.
26:17But again, Brunson, I think it's over that.
26:19Halliburton can absolutely.
26:21Siakam's in that mix of 20 points.
26:22But if I'm being honest, like maybe my favorite Pacers bet right now,
26:25he's probably under 11 and a half on Neesmith if he's banged up as we think he is.
26:29He exited midway through the third quarter with an ankle injury.
26:32Hobbled as he came off the floor.
26:33Did return to action.
26:34But, of course, is now dealing with the lingering effects of that injury he picked up in game number three.
26:39DRS on the other side for the New York Knicks.
26:42I would look at both Mikael Bridges and OG Ananobi.
26:45Ananobi has scored exactly 16 points.
26:47Yeah.
26:47Exactly 16 in all three games of the Eastern Conference Finals so far.
26:51Bridges 15 plus points in all three games as well.
26:54I really think the two wings, Ananobi and Bridges, have been the critical X factors for New York throughout this playoff run.
27:01But, of course, a ton of attention on Karl-Anthony Towns tonight.
27:05You talked about the Knicks probably come to Jesus moment midway through the third quarter in game three.
27:11Like, everything we have tried to do just is not working.
27:14Is Tom Thibodeau on the hot seat?
27:15What becomes of Jalen Brunson, Mikael Bridges, and maybe most notably Karl-Anthony Towns,
27:20the guy we acquired this offseason in the blockbuster deal with Minnesota.
27:24Should we trade Cat, who only had four points entering the fourth quarter and finished with a game-high 24-20,
27:32coming in those final 12 minutes to lead that comeback for the Knicks?
27:35What does Karl-Anthony Towns do for an encore tonight?
27:38It probably feeds off that here.
27:39I think he's going to be right around that number.
27:41But it was interesting that you bring up some of these backup, honestly, backup players,
27:44like B-level players because Brunson is the A.
27:46Like, Mikael Bridges in this series, Ben.
27:48Game number one, 16 shots.
27:49Game number two, 18 shots.
27:50Game number three, 18 shots.
27:51The thing I love about NBA players is when they get to basketball, it's like, I'm not giving it up.
27:55Like, I'm going to go one-on-one no matter what at this point.
27:57So I look to the points where Mikael Bridges had 16, 20, and 15 here be right around that number
28:02because I do think he's going to shoot 16-plus times tonight.
28:04He just hasn't been affected from three.
28:06If he knocks down multiple triples, he's getting that price point.
28:09I like that look.
28:0916-and-a-half, his number.
28:1115-and-a-half as we shared for OG and an OB.
28:14We'll talk about Pascal Siakam's points prop on the other side of the break as well.
28:18As we give you a best bet on the early line.
28:21We welcome you back live right here on this Tuesday morning on the early line on SportsGrid.
28:26It's our third and final hour.
28:28It's our final segment of this Tuesday.
28:30Special in-person live edition here on TEL.
28:33Tomorrow, we will be separate again.
28:36But on Thursday, we are scheduled to be back in the studio together for some more electricity as we have it.
28:43DRS, let's go to game number four tonight in Indianapolis of the Eastern Conference Finals.
28:47We will give you a best bet.
28:49Our best bet of the day coming up in just a moment could be MLB for you.
28:54If you had one favorite wager for tonight in game number four, what would it be between the patients and the next?
28:59I've got to tell you, it's actually a split right now because a little bit later in the day, we'll be able to get a prognosis on Neesmith here.
29:04But I love his under-11-and-a-half.
29:06I really do.
29:06If he's not healthy, I don't think he gets into the teens, which means that number would hit.
29:10But again, it's Shalen Brunson.
29:11I'll live with it.
29:1225-shot attempts tonight.
29:13He doesn't get 30 points.
29:14Well, that's so bad.
29:15And if the handicap was right, the expectation was wrong.
29:18I would be shocked if Jalen Brunson, and if it doesn't get it, what does he get?
29:2127, 28 points in that range?
29:23Give me Jalen Brunson over 29-and-a-half points.
29:25He's into the 30s tonight.
29:26That would shock me.
29:27I think it's a really good look, DRS.
29:29Over 29-and-a-half for Jalen Brunson.
29:31On a night where he was 6-of-18 from the floor.
29:34The first time in this series, he had not scored at least 36 points.
29:37He still finished with 23 on what was an inefficient offensive night for New York's best player.
29:44I think you are getting not a discount, per se.
29:46It's the highest points prop in game number four tonight, but still a pretty decent number.
29:51For me, my favorite points prop would be Pascal Siakam over 19-and-a-half, at least 17 in all three games here for Indiana.
29:57He has been that consistent score for the Pacers throughout much of this playoff run.
30:02But my favorite bet for game four is rather simple.
30:06I'll take Indiana on the money line at minus 136.
30:08I'll lay the price.
30:09Just give me the Pacers outright to take a 3-1 series advantage at home tonight in Indianapolis.
30:15And give me the over of the eight-and-a-half, and that number might be wrong,
30:19of the times that John Halliburton, Tyrese's father, is shown on camera tonight up in his suite
30:24as he makes his triumphant return, if that's what we want to call it,
30:28to the Eastern Conference Finals in the NBA playoffs.
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