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00:00The Eastern Conference Finals between a couple of old playoff rivalries and foes.
00:07The New York Knicks, an ever-so-slight favorite at minus 146 to win the series outright.
00:12The shortest number in terms of the duration of this series is seven games at plus 186.
00:19Shortest correct score, the team to win, and in how many games, is the Knicks in seven inside Madison Square Garden.
00:26What a theater that would be, plus 370.
00:29The Pacers beat the Knicks last year in the second round inside Madison Square Garden in seven games.
00:36Shortest price for the Pacers to win this series as well at plus 470.
00:41Donnie, how do you approach betting this series?
00:44It sounds like both you and I kind of are giving the Pacers maybe more credit than the overall public sentiment has been around Indiana throughout this playoff run for a second straight season.
00:56Yeah, exactly, because I think both of these teams are pretty evenly matched.
00:59Now, granted, you always have to give the edge to the team with home court advantage, and the New York Knicks do have that, which is why the FanDuel Sportsbook is listing them as a favorite for the series at minus 146.
01:08But if you ask me, okay, Donnie, first two games in Madison Square Garden, what's the likely outcome?
01:13It can be 2-0 either way, right?
01:16But we're feeling that it's probably going to be 1-1, which means that the Pacers then would have home court advantage, and that Pacers price, a plus 124 would not be plus 124.
01:25It's probably looking more like minus 124 at that point now.
01:28So to start the series, I would be playing the dog price here, and that could quickly change.
01:33You get the New York Knicks in a 120-105 game after, you know, and there we go, like, hey, the Knicks are truly the better team, and now the uphill climb starts with the Pacers.
01:40That might be a little bit different.
01:42But me looking at the series in itself, I'm intrigued by the dog price because I do feel that we are going to get a six or a seven-game series, which means the underdog is going to be live all the way through.
01:52And, again, the caption point of, okay, you might be able to get the Pacers at a plus 124.
01:57After they win game number one, they'll be the favorite in the series slightly, and then you can start maybe coming back on the New York Knicks to sort of get that even hedge or even better, right?
02:05The Pacers take two games in Madison Square Garden.
02:08Then you fire the Knicks up, and you sit back and go, hey, let's go New York at a much better price than what I get on the Pacers.
02:13But a worst-case scenario, you have plus money in your pocket.
02:16So many different ways to look at it for me, Ben, but to start the series, I'm trying to find plus money.
02:21I completely agree, DRS.
02:23This series, more so than the Western Conference Finals, feels as though the result of every game is going to drastically swing the outright prices,
02:31where you are going to have multiple moments, probably, to bet whatever side you feel with a pretty good plus money number.
02:38Ultimately, I think the correct handicap is Indiana on the series spread, getting a game and a half to at least get this to seven,
02:46or, as I expect, to maybe even win this series outright over New York.
02:51The chalk you got to lay, though, at minus 188, don't love it.
02:55Over, under, in terms of series total game, five and a half.
02:58Of course, when the most likely is seven, the over has the hefty juice of five and a half games.
03:03To see at least six in this series is minus 188.
03:07The way that I have already bet this, DRS, from an Eastern Conference perspective, it may be overall,
03:13was after the Pacers quickly dispatched the Cavs in five games, betting Indiana's price of plus 900 to win an NBA championship,
03:21with a pretty good, hefty number to get to that NBA Finals, as I believe, or at least some times throughout that championship series, a cash-out opportunity.
03:31So, that's the way I'm going to approach it at the very start, and that number for Indiana has shortened by $2,
03:37but the Pacers still the longest price at plus 700.
03:40A lot of plus money available on three of the four teams still standing, just not Oklahoma City.
03:47It may be because of Oklahoma City.
03:49The Thunder now the strongest favorite we have seen to win a Larry O'Brien trophy at minus 175.
03:56And they should be.
03:57They should be the favorites.
03:57They're the best team left here out of the Final Four.
04:00But also, when we take a look at the Pacers, bring up the rear at a 7-1 to price, and you get excited,
04:04because we've liked the way they played basketball, but also understand this.
04:07You beat the Pacers.
04:08The Pacers beat the Bucs pretty easy in round number one.
04:11A lot of injury concerns there for the Bucs there.
04:13No Damian Lillard.
04:13Okay, you handled your business in 4-1.
04:15We're not going to take that away from you.
04:17Then you take on the Cavaliers, the number one overall seed.
04:19A lot of injuries to deal with, which included Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland and a couple other players in that lineup,
04:25but you did easily dispatch them in five games.
04:27So, we're not going to take away saying, like, oh, you got lucky at that point.
04:31No.
04:31It's the same way that we look sort of at the Minnesota Timberwolves with beating the Warriors.
04:34Like, yeah, they beat a team without their superstar, but they easily dispatched of that superstar once he was injured.
04:40And that's exactly what the Pacers did.
04:42They should be ready for the smoke here, the Pacers.
04:44So, for me, again, I'm looking to try to find a way to take underdog prices when approaching the NDA championship.
04:49And as we talked about the Pacers in the Eastern Conference finals, I got that same feeling.
04:54Like, there's a legitimate chance, yes, they should be able to beat the New York Knicks.
04:57And then you're dealing with a really good price point once you get to the finals.
05:00And again, I'll reiterate this again.
05:02It's OKC.
05:03They're fantastic this year.
05:04It's not OKC that's, hey, this is our third out of four years that we're in the NBA finals.
05:08They're still new to this whole thing as well.
05:10That's where you might get an advantage.
05:11A great point DRS will discuss further in hour two that begins on the other side of the break.
05:18Now in the NBA postseason, we have reached the conference finals round.
05:22It starts tomorrow night on a Tuesday in Oklahoma City.
05:26And for the first time in 25 years, that will include New York City on a Wednesday night inside the world's most famous arena.
05:34How do we reach this stage?
05:35A recap of the weekend.
05:37Game seven yesterday between the Thunder and the Nuggets.
05:40Game six on a Friday night inside MSG between the Knicks and the Celtics in what lies ahead.
05:47With the coach, J.Y. James Young, here on a Monday on the early line on SportsGrid.
05:52J.Y., I am sure the celebrations continue for you.
05:56Your New York Knicks to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000.
06:01Congratulations.
06:03We look forward to the breakdowns and the recaps here on TEL.
06:06Well, I was hoping I was going to get a congratulations from Dottie Wright's eye, but I guess I couldn't expect something like that.
06:13I do get a question, though.
06:15No, it's great to be on with you.
06:16Some great basketball.
06:17But, well, maybe he'll give it to me at some point in the next 28 minutes.
06:21It felt like a natural time for DRS to step in and just say the word congrats.
06:26Instead, a you-know-what eating grin on his face, so I wonder where he is going with his first question.
06:33My first question will be about game seven yesterday afternoon in Oklahoma City.
06:39And, J.Y., the main question for this year's Thunder team, who had been the number one seed in the Western Conference now for two consecutive years,
06:46would they use the playoff growth experience last year, continue to learn from it in this second round set against the Denver Nuggets,
06:54and reach a place they had not as a franchise in nearly a decade and had not with this core?
07:02The answer to that is yes.
07:04And a monumental game seven win yesterday at home, 125-93, a 32-point win for OKC against the Nuggets.
07:13They cover as an eight-and-a-half-point home favorite.
07:16J.Y., what has Oklahoma City proven to you here in this playoff run?
07:21To go win a game seven against a team that's more experienced, where I was thinking that the line was too high
07:27and that they were going to be in the game.
07:29What a performance by Oklahoma City, particularly that 18-5 run in the second quarter where the game was close then,
07:37and then all of a sudden, Jalen Williams woke up from his slumber that lasted the majority of the series.
07:45I do believe 11 points, five out of five from the floor, down that stretch of the second quarter.
07:50And once they threw that punch, there was nothing left that Denver can do.
07:56Denver did lean, obviously, heavily on Nikola Jokic.
07:59And obviously, you know, we can get into the play of that man, Alex Caruso,
08:03and his defense and how the NBA allowed him to kind of get into him a little bit and get him off of his spot.
08:08But to me, it's about Jalen Williams stepping up, these young guys making plays, SGA being better.
08:16But then on the other side, you know, obviously the injury to Michael Porter Jr. hampered him.
08:21Jamal Murray, usually a clutch guy, and a game seven was not.
08:24And then Aaron Gordon, who literally, folks, had a great two strength.
08:28He had no business, no business playing in that game yesterday, but he was good, giving you what he could.
08:37And then Christian Brown, big performance out of him, particularly early in the game, trying to keep Denver in it.
08:43Yeah, bottom just fell out on them, J.Y.
08:45Take a look at some of their superstar players injured.
08:47You got the most that you could here.
08:48OKC clearly was the better team, and they performed like that in game number seven,
08:52which then brings us to the next round here.
08:54OKC, no rest for the weary coach.
08:56Coach, you're going to be right back on the court tomorrow, taking on the Minnesota Timberwolves.
08:59And if we take a look at the FanDuel Sportsbook right now, the odds to win this series, heavy for OKC.
09:03No surprise, at a minus 375, and the Timberwolves at a plus 300.
09:07Talk to me about this, Coach, because round number one for OKC, easily dispatching of Memphis 4-0.
09:12I actually like the fact that they went seven games against a quality opponent here
09:16and still had to face adversity even in a game number seven.
09:19How are we setting up this next series with a rested Minnesota Timberwolves team taking on OKC, fresh from the fight here?
09:25Well, listen, I think they've gotten their fight, right?
09:29And I think Oklahoma City is going to be better off now.
09:32And I think, you know, when you look at Minnesota, guys, let's be honest.
09:37They had an extremely, maybe this is too strong a statement to say, easier pathway than people thought,
09:45particularly because of their size, right?
09:48They were able to impose their will, you know, with Rudy, especially with Julius Randle, Nazarede, and so on and so forth.
09:55This is going to be the first series now where it's size on size.
09:59You know, obviously, Hartenstein versus Rudy.
10:02You look at, obviously, you're looking at Chet Holmgren with his size and his length to be able to go against Julius Randle.
10:09Now, you can't roll Julius Randle into the low post in this series because you can't pull Rudy Gobert to the perimeter.
10:16So, some of the things that you may think could be matchup for Minnesota are not here.
10:23I like the battle-tested Oklahoma City Thunder to go take this series.
10:28Honestly, guys, and I've been on this team, Minnesota, going to this point.
10:33I think this may be over.
10:34Ready?
10:35I think it could be over in five.
10:38Mmm.
10:39Could be the gentleman's sweep, J.Y.
10:42The oddsmakers are in love with Oklahoma City, and correctly so, for the NBA's best team all year long.
10:4968 wins.
10:50The NBA's best cover team throughout the regular season as well.
10:54Game seven in the 32-point win for the Thunder.
10:56Just their second cover in their nine games since game number two of the opening round set against the Grizzlies.
11:02But even here, you see a minus 375 price outright in favor of OKC.
11:09Shortest series correct score.
11:11Team to win and in how many games is five.
11:14Oklahoma City in five at plus 270.
11:18You highlighted the matchup advantages.
11:21But, J.Y., I think naturally on paper, guys and people would look at what we are seeing entering game number one tomorrow night in OKC.
11:29And, say, well, the Thunder are at a huge advantage.
11:33This team just went to seven games against a Denver team that won an NBA championship two seasons ago.
11:40It has to turn around in a 48-hour window to start the Western Conference Finals with only a day of rest in between.
11:49Meanwhile, the Timberwolves dispatched the Golden State Warriors quickly.
11:53They didn't really have to face a ton against Steph Curry.
11:57Six days of rest for Minnesota.
11:59The age-old rest versus rust to paint on full display tomorrow night, J.Y., in game number one between the Thunder and the Timberwolves.
12:09How do you expect this game to play out?
12:12Yeah, I think it would be a tight game to start.
12:14I think Minnesota is going to try and lean on its defense.
12:16And under 214 is where I'm looking at.
12:19I am concerned a little bit about the point spread.
12:21Maybe you get a little bit of Oklahoma City maybe not getting off to a good start.
12:25So, I would look at maybe the opposite, maybe taking plus the points or letting the game start early.
12:30And then we'll go from there.
12:33But I think plus the points, if you want to take a pregame.
12:37Otherwise, let the game start.
12:38Then jump on Oklahoma City if it's tight.
12:40But I do think Minnesota tries to slow this game and play down.
12:44So, I look for the game to go under 214 and a half.
12:46All right, J.Y., we appreciate the –
12:49Oh, sorry, DRS.
12:51Somebody didn't tell you that.
12:52All right, J.Y., we got to get J.Y. out of here.
12:54Something is up for him.
12:55J.Y., appreciate your time.
12:57Quickly here.
12:57You know what, I'll leave.
12:58Get to the Madison Square Garden game.
12:59It's all right, though, J.Y., we appreciate it.
13:01We will talk soon throughout this week.
13:04Best to you.
13:05All right, DRS.
13:06What do you want to talk about now?
13:08Should we just talk about the NFL?
13:10No, let's go.
13:11What happened?
13:11What is happening?
13:12You and I –
13:13I don't –
13:17That was our producer, Joe Frizzo, telling us in our earpieces,
13:21he doesn't know.
13:22J.Y. texted him.
13:23We hope all is okay with the coach.
13:25All right.
13:25But we've kind of already discussed the NBA playoffs.
13:28We've given our thoughts on these series that we will see in the conference finals
13:33and what we saw, of course, in Game 7 yesterday in Oklahoma City,
13:36what we saw in Game 6 on Friday night inside Madison Square Garden.
13:42So, where do you want to go?
13:43You want to talk NFL owners' meetings?
13:45Up next, the Tush Push Band, maybe?
13:48Oh.
13:49Divisional?
13:50Yeah.
13:51I want to talk all that stuff because these are hot topics and thrown in with Brock Purdy,
13:55which I do want to start there for just a brief moment because I thought it was hilarious
13:58where usually in professional sports, when you're an ownership group, you're a team
14:03and you have a league, you want to celebrate a big moment, Ben.
14:06What happens here?
14:07Monday morning, Tuesday morning, Wednesday morning, Thursday morning, Friday morning.
14:13Huge announcement.
14:14The minute people are awake, we want to celebrate this.
14:17Brock Purdy signs a massive new contract extension and a Friday news bump,
14:24just like when the Dallas Cowboys signed their new head coach.
14:27We didn't want to celebrate it.
14:28We knew the people were paying it.
14:30Maybe in a couple days, they'll forget about it.
14:32I almost did forget about it.
14:34Not so fast, Ben.
14:36Donnie's got thoughts next.
14:38Time now for the prop perspective as we get ready for the conference finals round.
14:44I'm still not sure that Donnie is okay having you here.
14:47I didn't know we had visual evidence.
14:49Yeah.
14:49Like, I thought we were just going to get like a he said, she said.
14:52That was fantastic.
14:53Caught in the act right there.
14:54Honestly, Kevin's on my bad list right now.
14:58You know, I would call it something else, but I got to have some words with Kevin.
15:02Wow.
15:02What's the other word for it, by the way?
15:04Let it go.
15:04Because he documented an affront to God?
15:07This is just subversion.
15:09This is subversion.
15:10I would say Kevin Walsh was doing great investigative journalism there.
15:17And I actually appreciate the work that Kevin Walsh has.
15:20Kevin Walsh podcast, the entire episode about this.
15:23Let's get to some sports.
15:24Wow.
15:26A hundred percent.
15:27All right.
15:28Let's talk about the conference finals.
15:29We start first in the NBA playoffs.
15:32Out West Vecchio, it's the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Oklahoma City Thunder.
15:36OKC dispatching of Denver by 32 in game number seven.
15:40Yesterday afternoon, OKC has been the odds-on favorite the entirety of the Western Conference
15:46postseason.
15:47They now enter the Western Conference finals as a heavy minus 375 favorite against Minnesota.
15:54Is there such a strong advantage in your mind, Vecchio, for the Thunder in this series
15:59matchup against the T-Wolves?
16:01Honestly, I don't.
16:02And I think one of the best ways you could play this is you take the Timberwolves on
16:06the series money line and you hope they do what Denver did in game one.
16:11They come out with the win.
16:12That series price would shift dramatically after a game one win for the Timberwolves and
16:16then potentially look to buy back in on the Thunder somehow, whether you could still take
16:20the if you have the faith in them, they could still take a minus one and a half on the series
16:23price, look to them, an exact series outcome, whatever it might be.
16:27I think the line is a bit too much.
16:29Like, these are two great teams.
16:30The line is suggesting that this is kind of like a first-round matchup where it's like,
16:33oh, this is like a 3-6 matchup.
16:35Like, oh, one team is clearly better than the other.
16:37That's not the case.
16:38Minnesota was here last year.
16:40The Thunder weren't.
16:41Now, we could say that the depth maybe lies with the Thunder and there are some things
16:45that we would trust the Thunder to do better in terms of matchups, rotations, whatever
16:49it might be.
16:49You could bring in multiple bigs.
16:51I still like the fact that the Timberwolves have Nasri coming off the bench, providing
16:55some secondary scoring.
16:57So, I do like the Timberwolves on the series price.
16:59But, again, look to buy back in after game one, potentially.
17:02All right.
17:03By the way, we just got word.
17:04John's on Bleecker Street here.
17:06Banned Tom Vecchio from ever showing up on Bleecker Street in New York City here.
17:10Sally said the same.
17:12Yeah, we're expecting to get something in from them shortly here.
17:15But if we are talking Knicks-Pacers and their series coming up, the Knicks are a favorite,
17:19Tom.
17:19Minus 146.
17:21Take a look at the Pacers.
17:21Plus 124.
17:22An exciting round in the Eastern Conference Finals here.
17:26Right.
17:26So, we were talking about this on BATR on Saturday morning.
17:29And, you know, one of my favorite bets in theory would be the series total games.
17:34We're five and a half.
17:35It's sitting at minus 188, which is a bit of a crazy price.
17:38So, I would say look to take it in six games.
17:40Six games total series.
17:41What is it?
17:42Two plus 220 for exactly six games.
17:44I think that's where we should be.
17:45Pushing to seven again.
17:46You could hedge out once we get to that sixth game, whatever it might be.
17:50I think it's a really good point, Beckio.
17:51Even looking at the Pacers in that series spread, getting a game and a half.
17:55That feels like the right bet.
17:58That feels like the right thought.
17:59It's just a matter.
18:00Do you want to lay minus 188 for that to be the case?
18:03Of course, for Indiana to cover, getting a game and a half in the series spread.
18:07They either win the series or at least they force a seventh game.