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00:00Skeens, and it's Abel on the mound, 901, 902 on the rotation,
00:03a 135 start from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.
00:07How about the Phillies overnight?
00:08A slight favorite at minus 118 here.
00:10It's flipped back to Skeens at around minus 112 to minus 115,
00:14depending where you're shopping at.
00:15A total that opened up at eight now sits at eight and a half.
00:18Let's start right there.
00:19Like, Paul Skeens is on the mound today.
00:21Going up against a pitcher, we're not actually sure
00:24how he's going to respond being in Major League Baseball,
00:26but the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup is so bad,
00:29that even Paul Skeens struggles to be a favorite.
00:32That's incredible.
00:33It really is, and this is a spot where I,
00:37like, I think you could take the Pirates' first five,
00:40but the Phillies still end up winning the game
00:42because, like, Skeens is awesome.
00:44Wait a minute.
00:44And there are, I will say, there are some issues.
00:47I may have with Skeens this year.
00:49His striking rate's a little bit lower than last year,
00:51and it's actually noticeably lower, but Skeens wins,
00:54and then, okay, you turn it over to the Pirates' bullpen,
00:56and then the Phillies' bats come through,
00:57and they're like, oh, they still win the game.
00:58So that is, like, one thing I could see actually happening.
01:02Mick Abel, as you said, is starting.
01:03Lehigh Valley, I don't know their mascot name.
01:06I know it's the Lehigh Valley Phantoms.
01:08Iron Pigs, baby.
01:10The Iron Pigs is an amazing name.
01:11I know it's the Phantoms for the Flyers' Lehigh Valley,
01:14but Mick Abel is a former first-round pick,
01:1615th overall in 2020.
01:17He actually has a pretty darn decent sample size,
01:20and stats that we look at from AAA this year,
01:23when we're looking at a 392 XFIP,
01:25obviously that will probably increase as it gets up to the majors.
01:28A 26.6% strikeout rate.
01:30Doesn't struggle with fly balls.
01:31It's at 44%.
01:32This is a picture that, okay, he strikes them out,
01:35he can induce ground balls,
01:36and we're facing one of the worst lineups in the league.
01:39This is actually a spot that he can pitch well.
01:41This is a picture that he can pitch well.