Pitching Analysis: Pirates vs. Phillies at Citizens Bank Park

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00:00Skeens, and it's Abel on the mound, 901, 902 on the rotation,

00:03a 135 start from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.

00:07How about the Phillies overnight?

00:08A slight favorite at minus 118 here.

00:10It's flipped back to Skeens at around minus 112 to minus 115,

00:14depending where you're shopping at.

00:15A total that opened up at eight now sits at eight and a half.

00:18Let's start right there.

00:19Like, Paul Skeens is on the mound today.

00:21Going up against a pitcher, we're not actually sure

00:24how he's going to respond being in Major League Baseball,

00:26but the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup is so bad,

00:29that even Paul Skeens struggles to be a favorite.

00:32That's incredible.

00:33It really is, and this is a spot where I,

00:37like, I think you could take the Pirates' first five,

00:40but the Phillies still end up winning the game

00:42because, like, Skeens is awesome.

00:44Wait a minute.

00:44And there are, I will say, there are some issues.

00:47I may have with Skeens this year.

00:49His striking rate's a little bit lower than last year,

00:51and it's actually noticeably lower, but Skeens wins,

00:54and then, okay, you turn it over to the Pirates' bullpen,

00:56and then the Phillies' bats come through,

00:57and they're like, oh, they still win the game.

00:58So that is, like, one thing I could see actually happening.

01:02Mick Abel, as you said, is starting.

01:03Lehigh Valley, I don't know their mascot name.

01:06I know it's the Lehigh Valley Phantoms.

01:08Iron Pigs, baby.

01:10The Iron Pigs is an amazing name.

01:11I know it's the Phantoms for the Flyers' Lehigh Valley,

01:14but Mick Abel is a former first-round pick,

01:1615th overall in 2020.

01:17He actually has a pretty darn decent sample size,

01:20and stats that we look at from AAA this year,

01:23when we're looking at a 392 XFIP,

01:25obviously that will probably increase as it gets up to the majors.

01:28A 26.6% strikeout rate.

01:30Doesn't struggle with fly balls.

01:31It's at 44%.

01:32This is a picture that, okay, he strikes them out,

01:35he can induce ground balls,

01:36and we're facing one of the worst lineups in the league.

01:39This is actually a spot that he can pitch well.

01:41This is a picture that he can pitch well.

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