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00:00We can now bring in Asher Kaufman, Professor of History and Peace Studies at the Kroc Institute for Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame.
00:07Thank you so much for joining us on the program today.
00:10Now, Donald Trump announced the lifting of sanctions on Syria just yesterday.
00:13Today he sat down with the country's new president, a man who not too long ago had a $10 million bounty on his head.
00:19Is Washington convinced that al-Sharah is the man to lead Syria?
00:25I mean, at least for now, this is clearly what seems to be the case.
00:30This is really a remarkable moment yesterday when he met with the – today, sorry – when he went with the Shara and lifted the sanctions.
00:40So this seems to be the case now.
00:43I mean, as we all know, Trump has changed – he's known for changing his views, sometimes even twice a day.
00:51So we will see where that unfolds.
00:53And he will still need to get support in Washington itself for this move.
01:02And there is a possibility that he would face some resistance on Capitol Hill.
01:08Donald Trump's visit to the region comes as he tries to secure a nuclear deal with Iran.
01:14Those negotiations from Tehran have been described as tough, but they are progressing nonetheless.
01:21He's trying to reach out at Tehran at a time when the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran has also shifted.
01:28Does that thaw in relations between Riyadh and Tehran factor into Donald Trump's thinking now?
01:34I think this is clearly the case if we follow Trump's actions in his first term with regards to both Saudi Arabia and Iran and Israel.
01:47We see that back in 2018, he, together with Israel and Saudi Arabia, opposed the nuclear deal that was achieved by Obama.
01:59And now there is a clear shift in his position with regards to Iran, supported by Saudi Arabia,
02:07and of course against the will of the current government in Israel headed by Benjamin Netanyahu.
02:13So we clearly see a shift now, a really important shift, that is part of perhaps an American reorientation of its policies in the Middle East, broadly.
02:30But this reorientation flies in the face of everything Benjamin Netanyahu wants.
02:35So how does Donald Trump reconcile doing the exact opposite of what Israel's prime minister wants?
02:43Yeah, I mean, this is really remarkable.
02:45I think of at least one of the more remarkable things that have been happening in the last few weeks.
02:51We see Donald Trump pursuing policies that are in direct, direct conflict with the Israeli government,
03:00from his decision to stop attacking the Houthis in Yemen, to its engagement with Iran through diplomacy,
03:10through, in general, ignoring completely Israel in this tour that he is now conducting.
03:18The way the last Israeli-American hostage was released completely by ignoring Israel.
03:27So we see here a really remarkable shift in American policy vis-a-vis Israel led by Trump.
03:37That does not mean that the U.S. will now stop being the most important ally of Israel.
03:44But we clearly see here a shift in American policy towards Israel.
03:49And we will see if he is able, actually, to deliver something with regards to an end of the war in Gaza.
03:55That's, I think, the biggest test for him during this trip with regards to Israel.
04:00Because this government, the Israeli government, has clearly shown no interest in stopping the war in Gaza.
04:07It has become a way for the government to survive politically and Netanyahu to survive politically.
04:12So this is, I think, the big question, because at the end of the day, Trump needs quiet and stability in the Middle East to pursue his business-oriented diplomacy.
04:25And Israel, so far, has not facilitated that quiet and diplomacy.
04:30This is true for Gaza, but this is also true for Israeli actions in Syria, Israeli actions in Lebanon, and definitely in Yemen.
04:39Even if you look at the chronology of events, I mean, Israel struck Yemeni ports the night before Trump flew to Saudi Arabia.
04:51Today, there have been continuation of these strikes.
04:55And the Houthis clearly are not showing any signs of giving up on their attempts to strike Israel with missiles.
05:02So that could be a major irritation and challenge to Trump's broader policies of reaching stability in the region, not for the sake of, you know, reaching peace, but for the sake of enabling economic transactions that he is interested in.
05:21That's an interesting point.
05:22But I want to talk about, you mentioned, Idan Alexander's release, which came after the U.S. conducted direct negotiations with Hamas and essentially bypassed the Israelis altogether.
05:35Today, we reportedly have some hostage families who are meeting Donald Trump in Qatar, Israeli hostage families.
05:42How does Donald Trump go about pressuring Israel to end the war, improving the humanitarian situation in Gaza without Israel being at the table?
05:54Yeah, I think this is a challenge.
05:57You know, Witkoff, Trump's envoy, met yesterday with Israeli hostages in Israel and said very clearly that the United States cannot act as Israel's government,
06:10that Israel has its own government, that Israel has its own government and this government is making their own decisions.
06:15And this current government clearly has no interest in ending the war.
06:20If the war ended, this government would likely fall.
06:23So this is a major issue inside Israel.
06:28And it remains to be seen if Trump will be able to pull something out of his sleeve to pressure Netanyahu to reach some kind of a ceasefire agreement with Hamas and this war.
06:46Signs show now in Israel that Netanyahu is really reluctant to do so because, again, his own political survival depends on it.
06:55I mean, this is the thing, Netanyahu keeps saying that the war is going to intensify, not just war in Gaza.
07:02He also wants the United States to get involved with striking Iran.
07:07So given that, you know, the major players in the region like Saudi Arabia, like the United Arab Emirates want peace, want stability.
07:15And you're saying the Trump administration wants that, too, in the region.
07:18How do they give Israel what it wants?
07:22This is Israel's biggest backer on the world stage, essentially, the United States.
07:28Yeah, I mean, you are pointing to the biggest challenge.
07:30I mean, can the United States have any leverage on Israel to change its policies vis-à-vis the Palestinians in general and vis-à-vis Gaza in particular?
07:42Clearly, we know that the leverage exists.
07:45It is there.
07:46I mean, the United States is Israel's number one weapon supplier.
07:50Diplomatically, it provides coverage to Israel in multiple international arenas.
07:56So there are possibilities for using these kinds of leverages against Israel.
08:00And it has not happened yet.
08:03And the question will be whether Trump, his administration, will use or try to threaten Israel with using these leverages in order to convince Israel to change its course in Gaza.
08:15But do you think that will happen?
08:17Because under the Biden administration, if you recall, they suspended the delivery of 2,000-pound bombs or something like that.
08:23And that didn't really halt the trajectory of the war, did it?
08:27I think we are in a different kind of relationship between Trump and Netanyahu.
08:34True.
08:34And, you know, Netanyahu was really joyous when Trump won the elections in November, when he came to power in January.
08:45There was this sense of joy in Israel that Trump will give Israel carte blanche to do whatever it wants.
08:51It has not happened yet.
08:53And I think there is one person in the world that Netanyahu is afraid of, perhaps in addition to his wife, but that's a different matter.
09:03And that is Trump.
09:06And the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu are really important here.
09:12And I think Trump has the capacity, if he wanted to, to put the pressure on Netanyahu to change course.
09:19But we will see.
09:20Maybe something will come out of these conversations now in Qatar that has been playing a really important role in the war in Gaza.
09:29And I am waiting in anticipation and hopeful that there will be some…
09:37You think the talks in Qatar will bear fruit, that we will see some sort of movement and more than just statements?
09:44I don't know.
09:45I mean, first, I'm hopeful for some constructive statements about the need to end the war in Gaza and to provide humanitarian assistance to the population there.
09:58And but this needs to come with some kind of leverage.
10:01And the leverage might not…
10:03We might not be able to see the leverage because it might not be spoken out publicly.
10:07But perhaps through some diplomatic forms, this American administration would put leverage, put pressure on Israel.
10:16Because clearly pressure right now is needed because otherwise I don't see Israel and this current government, Netanyahu, changing their policies with regards to Gaza without outside pressure.
10:30Asher Kaufman, we're going to have to leave with that.
10:32Thank you so much for joining us on the program today.
10:34Thank you for having me.