Cardinals vs. Mets Game Preview: Where Is the Value?

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00:00St. Louis off to a pretty strong start, at least based on relative expectations, to begin 2025.

00:05Now, they are a road underdog today inside Citi Field against the Mets.

00:10Griffin Canning gets the start, minus 136.

00:12Andre Pallant on the other side for the Redbirds.

00:15Total of 7.5, but that kind of odds distinction in the money line prices becoming a little bit tighter.

00:20What do you expect to see today between the Cardinals and the Mets?

00:24We were on last week when the Philadelphia Phillies took on the St. Louis Cardinals.

00:27And, you know, it might raise some eyes like, hey, Nola's on the mound versus Pallant.

00:30And I was like, I don't know if Nola's even the better pitcher on the mound because most people don't know Andre Pallant.

00:34You take a look again last year just to fill you in.

00:37509 batters faced here.

00:38Iso against 098.

00:40Fantastic.

00:40Weighted on base percentage, 295.

00:42Let's go back to this year now.

00:4366 batters he's faced.

00:45An overall Iso of 119 and a weighted on base percentage of 250.

00:49Lights out against right-handed bats.

00:51A little bit of a high Iso versus lefties through those 33 at-bats at 233.

00:55But a very manageable weighted on base percentage.

00:57Doesn't have a lot of Ks, so sometimes those numbers could be elevated.

01:00But just looking at the, you know, analytical numbers per se.

01:0316 and a third innings pitched for Pallant this year.

01:06A 220 ERA, which is great.

01:07And an XFIP of 430.

01:09Now, when you look at the other sides, okay, well, home team for the Mets.

01:11Home cooking is usually good.

01:13Griffin Canning is not a great pitcher by any stretch.

01:1515 innings pitched on the season.

01:17A 4.20 ERA number and a 4.12 XFIP number.

01:21You take a look at the lineup.

01:22I don't love this Cardinals lineup.

01:24But this year alone with Griffin Canning, a right-handed pitcher, has really struggled

01:28against right-handed batters.

01:29But you are going to get a look at a lot of lefties today.

01:31Newpar, Donovan, Burleson, Gorman, and Victor Scott anticipated to be in that lineup.

01:36But maybe the right-handers can do some damage.

01:38And even an oldie but goodies, we like to say.

01:40Nolan Arenado, 49 at-bats against right-handed pitching this year.

01:44A 222 ISO and a 355 weighted on base percentage.

01:47And a K rate that you love to see of under 10%, which means if Newpar, Contreras, and Donovan

01:52can be on base, maybe that guy in the middle of the lineup today that can provide an RBI,

01:56an extra base hit, or multiple hits, that could be Nolan Arenado.