Tigers vs. Cardinals Game Preview: Sonny Gray Starts

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00:00The Cardinals and the Tigers tonight under the arch.

00:03Sonny Gray gets the start for St. Louis, at least on FanDuel right now.

00:08No starter name, DRS, for the Tigers.

00:10Maybe you have some updated info, but the Redbirds, a favorite at minus 158.

00:17Total, eight and a half today in the loo.

00:20What do you like tonight between the Cardinals and the Tigers?

00:22Yeah, we do have a pitching mismatch.

00:24Looks like it is going to be Montero.

00:25But at the same time, like, you don't have a team this match here

00:28because Detroit's been very good, and as of late,

00:30that lineup really is showing up for the St. Louis Cardinals.

00:32If we take a look at Sonny Gray on the season itself,

00:3550 total innings pitched to 450 ERA, which is high, but a 3.51x fifth number,

00:40so it's getting a little bit unlucky.

00:41The issue here is you take a look at that lineup for Detroit,

00:43which is finally starting to hit.

00:45We've been waiting a couple years for, you know, the Carpenters, the Keats,

00:48the Greens, the Torkelsons, really to turn it on, and they have.

00:51And you're getting great at bats by a guy like Javier Baez in the nine hole here

00:54with a 3.33 iso power number over the past month going up against right-handed pitching.

00:59Here's where we take a look at Sonny Gray.

01:00As we just said, his numbers are pretty good.

01:02On the card today, 23 total pitchers here with at least 10 innings pitched on the season.

01:07Sonny Gray comes in sixth with itching bad.

01:09Here's the problem, though.

01:10If you like Detroit, you look at the lefties.

01:12If we focus in on Sonny Gray on the season, he's faced 96 of them.

01:15A 129 iso against and a weighted-on-base percentage of 299, a K rate of 29% over the past 30 days.

01:22The K rate dropped slightly from 29% to 27%, which isn't bad.

01:26You do take a look at the iso power number, 127, which is actually less than what it has been on the full season,

01:31and a slightly higher weighted-on-base percentage.

01:33So if you sound like, okay, well, he's really good against lefties, how about the righties?

01:37He actually doesn't do all that well on this season.

01:39A 221 iso and a weighted-on-base percentage here of 336.

01:43The last 30 days, Ben, his last 58 batters he's faced from the right side, a 241 iso and a 408 weighted-on-base percentage.

01:50But I just told you, we like Green, a carpenter.

01:53He's a lefty.

01:53Keith is a lefty.

01:54Green is a lefty.

01:55McKinstry is a lefty.

01:56Sweeney is a lefty.

01:57So five out of the batters estimated tonight of the nine are supposed to be lefties, only four for the righties.

02:02If I'm trying to say, you know what, which righty makes the most sense, it's probably Javier Baez,

02:06but you don't have a clean approach tonight because Gray is good against lefties and not so bad against righties.

02:11So that's where the advantage is.

02:12On the opposite side, just quickly, Montero's not a very good pitcher.

02:15You should be able to get quality at-bats for St. Louis tonight.

02:18And by the way, for a pitcher that doesn't strike out a lot of batters, there's not a lot of strikeouts in the lineup for the Cardinals.

02:24They're very good at putting the ball in play against right-handed pitching,

02:27so the Cardinals should have success, lean on the better pitcher and the better advantages.

02:31That's why we're sitting at a minus 150 or higher.

02:34Yeah.

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03:02Yeah.

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