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Key Factors & Player Props in Duke vs. Houston Basketball Game
SportsGrid
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4/5/2025
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Sports
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00:00
A number that is a little inconsistent out there, a 5.5, 4.5, flat 5, depending on your
00:08
side you always want to get the best of that number.
00:11
The total right now, 136.5, there looks to be some trends towards, or it's trending up
00:17
as opposed to down, 137 is out there right now, so perhaps you're going to see this number
00:22
climb throughout the day.
00:25
I like Houston in this one, I will add this quickly just to the Houston breakdown.
00:29
If they do drop this game, if it does not go their way, well in the four losses this
00:36
year they've all been 5.5 or less.
00:38
It is absolutely on the board that Duke wins and Houston covers, it 100% is.
00:48
Because of the way Houston plays it is hard to extend on a team like that.
00:54
Tell me coach what you expect from Cooper Flagg in this basketball game, prop players
01:00
of course will always gravitate towards the future number one overall pick, his performance
01:06
I am sure will dictate so much of the outcome of this game.
01:09
Yeah, I think Cooper Flagg is going to have a good game, but I think for me it's going
01:14
to be his ability with the rebounds.
01:17
Because if I'm Calvin Sampson, I'm not letting this guy go off, and I'm going to be physical
01:26
and I'm going to have to make sure that I keep my guys out of foul trouble.
01:31
Obviously you'll see Juwan Roberts start on him, Javier Francis is about 6'8 but long
01:38
wingspan, athletic big even though you see him as a rim protector, Artano is a little
01:44
bit shorter at about 6'6, but I expect multiple defenders having to be set at Cooper Flagg.
01:50
I wouldn't touch his points, if you think about it, if I think the game is going under
01:55
and it's about 136-137, that means I need Cooper Flagg to get about 30-35% of the points.
02:02
That doesn't happen against a guy like Calvin Sampson.
02:05
So to me, if you're looking at points, I'm looking under, but because of I think both
02:11
teams defensively, and maybe Cooper Flagg, Joe finds a different way to impact the game.
02:18
To me, it's a 7.5 rebounds, I think especially when Malio Ox is in the game, they're going
02:22
to keep him off the boards.
02:24
Cooper may struggle with a shot, which means he may go chase rebounds.
02:28
That's what I'm looking at, over the 7.5 rebounds for Cooper Flagg.
02:30
It's a good look.
02:31
To Coach's point about the 20-plus for Cooper Flagg, it's plus 134, so 18.5, he's average
02:36
right now.
02:38
The book isn't even expecting him to get to 20 in terms of this matchup.
02:42
I look at the assists, though.
02:43
I agree with Coach that Houston wants to take away Flagg in that capacity, right?
02:49
So I look at him on the offensive side of the ball being that facilitator.
02:53
So 6-plus in terms of assists, and 8 assists, you're getting great value.
02:57
You're almost getting 2-1, I believe, on 6-plus assists.
03:01
So you take him up to 8, I think it's almost like plus 290 in that area, plus 232.
03:06
So I look at him as being the facilitator.
03:08
I look at the two scorers for Duke today.
03:11
I still go with the hot hand, Con Kniepel.
03:13
He's averaged 20.5 over the last two games of the tournament.
03:18
He's been hot from 3, and we talk about how dominant Duke has been from 3-point range,
03:23
47%.
03:24
Well, you've got to expect that Houston wants to take away Proctor as well, because he's
03:28
the sharpshooter.
03:29
Kniepel, left alone, he's got the length, he's got the height.
03:33
He's plus value for 20-plus.
03:34
Give me Kniepel.
03:36
To keep that train moving, I go with the hot hand in the matchup, guys.
03:40
And if you, see, to me, if you look at someone that I'm looking at in that matchup in regards
03:46
to 3's, I'm going to the other guard.
03:48
I'm going to Proctor.
03:49
Okay?
03:50
And I think I saw earlier, and it was like plus 130, plus 140 for him to make, I think,
03:56
3-plus made 3's.
03:57
I think that number is gone.
03:59
I saw it at plus 105 late last night.
04:03
So I think that's something interesting, is you want to be able to take away the best
04:11
player.
04:12
And I think that's what Calvin Sampson does the best.
04:15
That's why all of us are thinking that Cooper Flagg getting to 20 points is going to be
04:19
so monumental, because I just don't think he's seen anything like this.
04:24
The physicality, the length, the fact that it's going to be a half-court game, a Houston
04:29
team that doesn't turn the ball over and walks them off the floor, so the transistence
04:33
of the Cooper Flagg is going to get, he won't get in this matchup.
04:37
To me, it all comes down to those two guys, Proctor and Sharp.
04:45
One of those two are going to knock down a 3 or 2 that's going to be big.
04:49
That's why I actually, if you want me to say, all right, give me a prop that you like from
04:53
Duke, it's going to be Proctor to make 3-plus made 3's at plus 104.
04:58
It's moved 25 cents since last night.
05:00
Manuel Sharpe was at plus 150, he's now at plus 120.
05:03
So I think those two, Kevin, play crucial roles in this game, because you have great
05:09
rim protectors, you're going to drive the ball, the help's going to come somewhere.
05:13
It's not going to come from the big.
05:15
The 3-point shot could be there.
05:17
Those are the two guys I'd be looking at.
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