Key Factors & Player Props in Duke vs. Houston Basketball Game

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00:00A number that is a little inconsistent out there, a 5.5, 4.5, flat 5, depending on your

00:08side you always want to get the best of that number.

00:11The total right now, 136.5, there looks to be some trends towards, or it's trending up

00:17as opposed to down, 137 is out there right now, so perhaps you're going to see this number

00:22climb throughout the day.

00:25I like Houston in this one, I will add this quickly just to the Houston breakdown.

00:29If they do drop this game, if it does not go their way, well in the four losses this

00:36year they've all been 5.5 or less.

00:38It is absolutely on the board that Duke wins and Houston covers, it 100% is.

00:48Because of the way Houston plays it is hard to extend on a team like that.

00:54Tell me coach what you expect from Cooper Flagg in this basketball game, prop players

01:00of course will always gravitate towards the future number one overall pick, his performance

01:06I am sure will dictate so much of the outcome of this game.

01:09Yeah, I think Cooper Flagg is going to have a good game, but I think for me it's going

01:14to be his ability with the rebounds.

01:17Because if I'm Calvin Sampson, I'm not letting this guy go off, and I'm going to be physical

01:26and I'm going to have to make sure that I keep my guys out of foul trouble.

01:31Obviously you'll see Juwan Roberts start on him, Javier Francis is about 6'8 but long

01:38wingspan, athletic big even though you see him as a rim protector, Artano is a little

01:44bit shorter at about 6'6, but I expect multiple defenders having to be set at Cooper Flagg.

01:50I wouldn't touch his points, if you think about it, if I think the game is going under

01:55and it's about 136-137, that means I need Cooper Flagg to get about 30-35% of the points.

02:02That doesn't happen against a guy like Calvin Sampson.

02:05So to me, if you're looking at points, I'm looking under, but because of I think both

02:11teams defensively, and maybe Cooper Flagg, Joe finds a different way to impact the game.

02:18To me, it's a 7.5 rebounds, I think especially when Malio Ox is in the game, they're going

02:22to keep him off the boards.

02:24Cooper may struggle with a shot, which means he may go chase rebounds.

02:28That's what I'm looking at, over the 7.5 rebounds for Cooper Flagg.

02:30It's a good look.

02:31To Coach's point about the 20-plus for Cooper Flagg, it's plus 134, so 18.5, he's average

02:36right now.

02:38The book isn't even expecting him to get to 20 in terms of this matchup.

02:42I look at the assists, though.

02:43I agree with Coach that Houston wants to take away Flagg in that capacity, right?

02:49So I look at him on the offensive side of the ball being that facilitator.

02:53So 6-plus in terms of assists, and 8 assists, you're getting great value.

02:57You're almost getting 2-1, I believe, on 6-plus assists.

03:01So you take him up to 8, I think it's almost like plus 290 in that area, plus 232.

03:06So I look at him as being the facilitator.

03:08I look at the two scorers for Duke today.

03:11I still go with the hot hand, Con Kniepel.

03:13He's averaged 20.5 over the last two games of the tournament.

03:18He's been hot from 3, and we talk about how dominant Duke has been from 3-point range,

03:2347%.

03:24Well, you've got to expect that Houston wants to take away Proctor as well, because he's

03:28the sharpshooter.

03:29Kniepel, left alone, he's got the length, he's got the height.

03:33He's plus value for 20-plus.

03:34Give me Kniepel.

03:36To keep that train moving, I go with the hot hand in the matchup, guys.

03:40And if you, see, to me, if you look at someone that I'm looking at in that matchup in regards

03:46to 3's, I'm going to the other guard.

03:48I'm going to Proctor.

03:49Okay?

03:50And I think I saw earlier, and it was like plus 130, plus 140 for him to make, I think,

03:563-plus made 3's.

03:57I think that number is gone.

03:59I saw it at plus 105 late last night.

04:03So I think that's something interesting, is you want to be able to take away the best

04:11player.

04:12And I think that's what Calvin Sampson does the best.

04:15That's why all of us are thinking that Cooper Flagg getting to 20 points is going to be

04:19so monumental, because I just don't think he's seen anything like this.

04:24The physicality, the length, the fact that it's going to be a half-court game, a Houston

04:29team that doesn't turn the ball over and walks them off the floor, so the transistence

04:33of the Cooper Flagg is going to get, he won't get in this matchup.

04:37To me, it all comes down to those two guys, Proctor and Sharp.

04:45One of those two are going to knock down a 3 or 2 that's going to be big.

04:49That's why I actually, if you want me to say, all right, give me a prop that you like from

04:53Duke, it's going to be Proctor to make 3-plus made 3's at plus 104.

04:58It's moved 25 cents since last night.

05:00Manuel Sharpe was at plus 150, he's now at plus 120.

05:03So I think those two, Kevin, play crucial roles in this game, because you have great

05:09rim protectors, you're going to drive the ball, the help's going to come somewhere.

05:13It's not going to come from the big.

05:15The 3-point shot could be there.

05:17Those are the two guys I'd be looking at.

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