Duke vs. Houston Preview: Game Lines & Betting Analysis

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00:00Houston and Duke at 849 Eastern San Antonio, TX, and we'll start with the lines as we did

00:06previously here, Mark, for Florida and Auburn. Before we handicap the game or get people up to

00:10date, let's just take a look at where the lines are actually moving. Vanduul in New Jersey opened

00:15up this line earlier in the week at a minus 4.5 price, minus 115 towards the Duke Blue Devils as

00:21the favorite here. The total opened up at 136.5, where it stands live right now, minus 5.5 as a

00:27favorite at minus 106 for the Duke Blue Devils, and the total unchanged at 136.5. So, seeing these

00:34lines based on the opening numbers, where they sit today, and also, Mark, where you think some

00:39of these lines might wind up by tip time on Saturday in San Antonio? Well, it's not a doubt

00:44in my mind this will be at 6 or 6.5 by the time they tip it off. Public's going to continue to

00:50hammer Duke. That's what's going to happen here. So, if you're waiting on Houston or you'd like,

00:56do you think Houston wins? I would wait until we get closer to Saturday, but you've seen this

01:00number slowly start to creep. Even at that, the first half number is starting to creep up as well.

01:06So, obviously, there's a correlation there, but I don't see how this doesn't hit 6. I genuinely don't.

01:14Yeah, it'll be interesting to see where it plays out, too, because typically you see those lines

01:17rip and run, like where that total is 155, 160, a lot more possessions, a lot more chance to maybe

01:21stretch that lead out. You might not get this in this because both of these teams aren't ultra fast,

01:26particularly with Houston, much more methodical. But having said that, if you just look at the

01:30one metric that comes into this game based on Ken Palm, number one in the country at adjusted

01:35efficiency on offense, it's Duke. Number one in defense at adjusted efficiency, it's Houston here.

01:41If we just look at that side of the basketball, Duke's offense, Houston's defense, who actually

01:46has the edge since both are ranked number one in their respective parts? Well, again, Cooper Flag

01:55is the ultimate cheat code, so to speak, given what he can do. But Houston's great team defense

02:02is the issue. And Houston may turn around and look at this game and go, you know, we might just give

02:06Cooper Flag what he wants. We're just going to stop everybody else. And that may be enough

02:11for them to get through this thing here. But this is one of the best defenses we've seen in college

02:16basketball in the last 20 years. So I think that Duke is going to have their hands full with this

02:22team defensively in Houston, what they can do. But pace is really what, to me, will this game

02:29will come down to. Houston is not winning his 78-74 basketball game. Not against this team.

02:36They could do it against, you know, TCU, but they're not doing that against this team.

02:42So the whole measure here for Houston is to keep Duke to 70 points or less. That's how they end

02:51up winning this game. If Duke is above 75, I don't know that Duke has a chance. Because

03:00look on the flip side of this here, you talked about the number one rankings in offensive and

03:03defensive efficiency. Duke's defensive rating is four, and Houston's offensive rating is 10.

03:10So yeah, they're going to have to figure out a way to put up enough points in this game as well

03:20in order to beat them. But the best defense, their best offense they could put together is

03:24a good defense against Duke. And I think Duke should try and speed them up because I think

03:30slowing them down to a Houston team that placed 360th out of 364 teams and adjusted tempo,

03:36you're not going to beat Houston at their own game. That's what they're really good at.

03:40If you saw what Purdue did to Houston, that game looked so frenetic and out of sorts. Houston's

03:45offense was never able to really get going in the first half, which is why it was a game made

03:50the whole entire way. Well, if Duke speeds up Houston and continues to push the pace,

03:56they are going to frustrate Houston and they're going to miss a lot more shots than they're going

04:00to make.