Duke vs. Houston Game Analysis & Predictions Today

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00:00We start with the night game though here as we try and go

00:03through all of our remaining breakdowns and picks for what

00:08should be two excellent we hope will be two excellent games

00:13later today. Duke is a five and a half point favorite total in

00:18this game is 136 and a half. Tell me Joe, besides you like

00:24here, maybe who the x factor of this game is?

00:26Yeah, I like Houston plus the points. But again, outright in

00:30terms of the money line, I'm a little skeptical. I still think

00:34Duke could potentially win a very close game, you know,

00:37maybe, you know, coach said in this in the 50s, or 60 63 60. In

00:42terms of that matchup, I actually think could be a little

00:45bit higher 73 70. For both of these teams, but I like Houston

00:49with the points. I think LJ Cryer, to me is the x factor

00:53when he scores there in these games defensively as well. I

00:57told you when they when he struggled against Purdue, they

01:00were on life support when he breaks out he has 17 points that

01:03opens up sharp that opens up everybody else in terms of their

01:07offense. I still think they're battle tested. I like them going

01:10into this ballgame coach. I think three point defense is an

01:14x factor for me. 27% they've held opponents in this

01:18tournament. We know that Duke likes to shoot the three, they

01:21might win but give me the points with the Cougars. I like

01:24them now that we're up into that area five points. Yeah, I mean,

01:27I've been on Houston, like I said, better part of two months.

01:31So I'm not I'm not coming off and I like Houston plus two

01:34points. And I'll take them on the money line today. I just

01:37think this is a style fight that I don't think Duke is prepared

01:42for you think about, you know, my years of coaching. You

01:46sometimes you can't, you can't simulate it like you just you

01:51what are you gonna do? You're gonna put like NBA guys like in

01:55regards to like thickness and how big and quick they move and

01:58say, all right, go against these guys and practice. You can't do

02:01it. So to me, styles make fights. I think this is obviously

02:05Houston plus points for the money line. And Joe,

02:07unfortunately, I think this game's dead under. I think this

02:10game is going to be a heavyweight fight. I think it's

02:15going to be every fight in which they're not throwing bombs right

02:19away. There's going to be six, seven minutes of just feeling

02:22each other out. And kind of seeing where where the gaps are

02:27where we can get things to kind of give us an advantage. And I

02:31think this game is gonna be played so tight and so close.

02:34Because Calvin Simpson can't let this game get away from him. I

02:37think it slows down half court, either team presses a lot. I

02:41think this game goes under.

02:43So for me, one of the guys that I felt would be an x factor is

02:47come on out of the watch. And look, I you know, you break into

02:52an NBA breakdown. If this kid went off the board second

02:55overall, I don't think I would think that's nuts. seven foot

02:59two can move on the perimeter can actually shoot it a little

03:02bit. Great rim protector finishes every lob under the

03:06sun. No one on Houston matches up with him really size for size.

03:15Certainly not in that starting lineup. Juwan Roberts is a

03:19great college big. He's six foot eight. Jojo Tugler, one of the

03:24best defensive players in the country is six foot eight. These

03:27guys are very long. But they are not as big and as much of a

03:34presence as few are as big as my watch. However, and what helped

03:43push me over the line even more to Houston is all being a small

03:48sample size. These type of matchups have not been all that

03:54kind to Maliwatch. He struggled mightily against Clemson and

03:59actually fouled out of that game. Finished with just three

04:02points, five rebounds and five fouls. A physical matchup, a

04:06very young player, maybe a little overzealous, and you end

04:11up fouling. Auburn much earlier in the year only played 15

04:15minutes finished with two and three, Kansas four and one.

04:18That's the one. So I think that if I'm wrong on Maliwatch, when

04:24I'm playing under 16 and a half points and rebounds, I'm going

04:28to be wrong across the card. He could be an x factor in this

04:31game. Cooper's favorite lob threat, right? They run the

04:34pick and roll with him all day. Houston's going to be ready for

04:37it. They will. And look, it's not my favorite bit of analysis,

04:39but I do think he's gonna catch a couple of elbows in the ribs.

04:41I do. And I think that could be a little bit jarring when you're

04:45just playing these up and down NBA games against Bama and

04:48Arizona. I think we see the Cougars certainly cover the five

04:53and a half. I still believe they win this game, Joe.

04:55No, I agree with Dan. That's why I like Cooper Flagg for the

04:58assist, because what you said with Maliwatch, you know, the

05:01alley oops and the ability to play maybe more of a half court

05:05style that they're going to have to work for open shots. And

05:09that's why I still like Cooper Flagg. I took a look at the

05:12assist market. I know you disagree, but plus 124 for six

05:16assists, you can get plus 430 for eight assists in terms of

05:20this matchup. So pretty good value on Cooper Flagg. I still

05:23go with Knipple for the points. I told you he's the hot hand.

05:27He's averaged 20 and a half over the last two games. I think he

05:30could break out potentially from three point land as well. I like

05:34him a little bit better than Proctor. But here's the other

05:38thing, Kevin and coach that we talk about. We talk about the

05:41totals for Duke, right? Yeah. You know, high total against

05:46Arizona. Another high total against Baylor, right? 150 149.

05:51We've seen we saw 126 and a half from 121 and a half Houston in

05:56Tennessee. Now we're up to 136 and a half, right? We're getting

06:00basically almost 20 points of discount from a Duke total. And

06:04we're and we're, we're about three or four points higher than

06:07what a Houston total typically is in that area. 133 and a half,

06:12right? I like points here, coach. I know it might be a

06:15feeling out process, but I still feel and this is where maybe we

06:19could disagree. But I feel Duke is much better in transition

06:24than Tennessee was. And, you know, do we really believe that

06:28Lanier that shot one of the 11 to start, right? Do we do we

06:33feel Knipple, Proctor, and even Flagg are going to start that

06:36way against Houston? I just don't see it. That's why I like

06:39the over. You know,

06:40listen, you make valid points in regards to the offensive

06:43acumen of the team, but there is no team that I can remember in a

06:50long time that gets you to play their way. Like Houston, they

06:56just, it's something of what they do. And it becomes

07:01incredibly frustrating when you have the ball and they're on

07:07you and they're on you and they're on you. And unless it's

07:10a steal, it's a rebound. Walk it up. Don't get it to your

07:15office. So about 16 seconds, try and score, make you rinse and

07:20repeat. I just think Duke is going to be in a spot where

07:23they're just, they're going to be very uncomfortable. And for

07:27these young kids, the first of them being comfortable all

07:29season.

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