Spring Statement: What does it mean for Scotland

The Scotsman

Dale is joined by political editor Alistair Grant, to gauge the view on the Spring Statement from the Scottish Parliament

Transcript

00:00Hello and welcome to the Scotsman's Politics Show. We are here in the wake of the spring statement

00:06delivered by Chancellor Rachel Reeves and I'm joined by our political editor Alastair Grant

00:12coming live from Holyrood. Alastair, I know we're speaking just ahead of you, hearing directly from

00:18Finance Secretary Shona Robison, but already the Scottish Government have given an indication about

00:25how they're viewing the impact of the spring statement on them. Can you explain?

00:30Yeah, so we'll be speaking to the Finance Secretary Shona Robison shortly. You can

00:34probably see her actually just behind me speaking to broadcast journalists at the moment, but

00:38effectively the Scottish Government repeating some of the things they've been saying about

00:42the proposed welfare cuts in the last couple of weeks, calling them deplorable, effectively

00:47accusing the UK Government of trying to balance the books on the back of disabled people. We saw

00:53again today, again lots of this was pre-announced in terms of the welfare changes, but they went

00:58further today in an attempt to save more money. We also saw the economic forecasts that are part

01:03of the spring statement with the Office for Budget Responsibility downgrading predicted growth for

01:08this year from 2% to 1%. We saw further announcements about the spending cuts in the

01:16wider public sector. We also saw a boost to defence spending of a further £2.2 billion,

01:22which will benefit firms in Scotland, but this sort of wider picture of weak growth and benefits

01:29cuts is not something that will be causing a lot of smiles within the Labour Party north and south

01:35of the border. It's something you should expect the Scottish Government to very much attack

01:40Labour on in the weeks and months to come as well, particularly on those welfare cuts. I think

01:45we saw some of the UK Government's own analysis on this saying that an additional 250,000 people

01:52will be pushed into relative poverty as a result of these changes, and that will be very difficult

01:56for some people within the Labour Party to swallow.

02:01And Alice, there's a bit of a row already developing, I think, with the Scottish Government

02:08sort of pointing out that this will mean some potential cuts down the track. I know that

02:13Fraser of Allander has done some analysis around it. Scottish Secretary Ian Murray already saying

02:18no, no, that's not the case. Do we have any clear idea about where this leaves the Scottish budget

02:24for the next couple of years yet? Yeah, so I think analysis that the Fraser of Allander Institute at

02:29Strathclyde University put out has shed a bit of light on this, effectively saying that in the

02:34immediate term, I think over the next year or so, there'll be a small increase to the Scottish

02:38Government's budget. I think they said of around £28 million, very small, but in years to come

02:44there will be a hit to the Scottish Government's budget, and that's for two reasons. It's because

02:48of the cuts to departmental spending in the UK level having an impact in Scotland, and also

02:55because of some of the welfare changes, I think in particular the change to PIP, to personal

03:00independence payment, which although that's devolved in Scotland or is in the process of being devolved,

03:05we've got our adult disability payments, the amount of money that's spent on that benefit

03:10down south has an impact on how much money gets funnelled up to Scotland

03:15for the Scottish Government then to use on its own benefits. So there is an impact on the Scottish

03:19Government's budget, I think that's something that we should expect Shona Robinson to say a lot more

03:23on in the next couple of hours, but we spoke to Shirley-Anne Somerville, the Social Justice

03:29Secretary, I think a week or so ago when these welfare cuts were first mooted, first announced

03:35in the Commons, and she was saying then that the Scottish Government feared it would have a severe

03:40impact on their budget. So the details of what that means we're not quite sure on yet, and I

03:45think one of the key questions for the Scottish Government is whether they will pledge not to

03:50have, not to pass on any cuts to, any kind of welfare cuts in Scotland. That's one of the

03:56things that I'll be asking Shona Robinson shortly, but definitely an impact on the Scottish Government's

04:01budget in the further years down the line. I think in particular the Fraser of Allander

04:06Institute, if I'm remembering this correctly, said that the kind of in total cut to the Scottish

04:12Government budget will be 900 million pounds by 2029. You can read our full news coverage of

04:21today's Spring Statement as well as the best analysis and opinion at scotsman.com. Even there,

04:28go to the politics tab in the navigation bar, you can get all the latest. Alistair, I'll let you go

04:33because I know you've got to minister the interview shortly. Thank you for joining us

04:38and please go out and buy a copy of Tomorrow's Scotsman for all the very latest.

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