Erdogan likely to win another term if Imamoglu removed from elections, expert says

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00:00For more, let's speak to Gunay Yildiz, a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics.

00:04Hello to you and thank you for speaking to Paris Direct.

00:07How would you characterize a rivalry between Erdogan and Imamoglu?

00:13Imamoglu has been the most viable candidate against President Erdogan and he is the strongest

00:20candidate that the opposition have with a very wide appeal across the political spectrum,

00:26from the conservatives to left-wingers to liberals, pro-Western elites all together.

00:32But that ambiguity is an asset when it comes to electioneering.

00:36It becomes a liability when he needs to challenge President Erdogan on the streets because it

00:44doesn't provide enough core to galvanize the street process.

00:49So the street process we're seeing at the moment will likely diminish rather than escalate.

00:56The potential removal of Imamoglu from the election race, I think, opens the road for

01:02President Erdogan for another term in 2028.

01:06So it's a very high-level rivalry and President Erdogan himself was the Istanbul mayor before

01:16moving on to higher office roles and Imamoglu is the Istanbul mayor as well.

01:21It's interesting how their careers seem to sort of mirror each other but come from polar

01:25opposites.

01:26Two cases brought against Imamoglu, one focusing on the financial corruption, the embezzlement,

01:31the other on aiding a terrorist organization.

01:33Is either case strong?

01:38I mean, they're not that strong but they're not also like once unheard of kind of challenges.

01:48Many other political figures or academic figures, media figures were targeted with similar kind

01:54of accusations in the past and those were like kind of broadly not accepted but like

02:01tolerated by the Turkish public and the CHP itself when it kind of targeted other sections

02:06of the society.

02:07When it comes to Imamoglu now it creates like a shock because of his prominence but obviously

02:13the broader political context is critical here, like the timing and the nature of these

02:18charges like this strongly suggest political motivations especially for the opposition

02:24figures.

02:25But it's also, you know, occurs within three critical broader contexts.

02:29So there is an ongoing peace initiative addressing Kurdish militancy which could profoundly impact

02:34democratization effects in Turkey and this process is actually very, even more important

02:39than Imamoglu's removal.

02:41It might overshadow Imamoglu's removal in long term significance.

02:45A second important context is the geopolitical shift.

02:49Geopolitical shifts in the Middle East are pushing Turkey to solidify its internal stability

02:53and there's a narrative I would like also to your audience to know about is broadly

02:58mentioned by state officials and people close to them is strengthening the domestic front

03:04narrative.

03:05So removing Imamoglu aligns with this strategy, effectively safeguarding the current political

03:10structure against any electoral risks.

03:13And the third condition that this happens under the context is that international conditions

03:20are so favorable for Turkey's internal moves.

03:23So Europe's anxiety over U.S.'s policies under Trump along with diminished Iranian influence

03:29in the region increases Turkey's leverage both on Europe or U.S. at the same time.

03:35So an international, like significant international backlash is very unlikely and even it happens

03:42historically these international responses have rarely impacted Turkey's domestic decisions.

03:46So it's important to know this context when analyzing the situation.

03:52Great point.

03:53I want to pick up on one of them.

03:54You mentioned the Kurdish peace efforts in recent weeks.

03:56We've seen Erdogan's government make some overtures to the broader Kurdish population.

04:00The Kurds in the past have given some tacit support to Imamoglu's opposition party.

04:06Now if Erdogan makes enough concessions to placate the Kurds, where would that leave

04:12Imamoglu's party?

04:13Yeah, there are two points to focus on this.

04:17One of them is if Imamoglu is indeed removed from the race and the opposition's backup

04:21candidate, the Ankara mayor takes up his position, he has much less appeal towards the Kurds.

04:28So I would believe that despite giving critical electoral support to the CHP in the recent

04:35elections, Kurds would, when they have to choose between this second backup candidate

04:41who's more nationalist against the Kurds and comparing him with Erdogan and his coalition

04:46who started this Kurdish kind of peace process, I would believe at least they would at least

04:52stop voting for the opposition.

04:55So there is very slow evolution on minority rights or working class issues when it comes

05:00to the opposition broadly.

05:03Imamoglu is like an exception to a certain degree because of his appeal.

05:07But the opposition remained strongly nationalist and not very pro-minority.

05:12So if Imamoglu is removed, I think minorities, including the main minority is the Kurds,

05:19would stay away from the CHP, which also solidifies Erdogan's grip on the country.

05:25Solidifies his grip on the country, also does what you mentioned earlier about stabilizing

05:28the internal situation.

05:31Is Erdogan reaching out to the Kurds to destabilize the CHP or rather to make a stability in the

05:40country, to move towards peace?

05:41Is that more of an altruistic aim?

05:44I think instead of altruistic ends, I would use more calculated, rational choices.

05:51And I mentioned geopolitical shifts in the Middle East.

05:54I think Turkey is seeing these shifts both as potential opportunities as well as risks.

06:02So in order to appeal, geopolitics plays the main role in terms of starting to resolve

06:09the Kurdish issue.

06:11So it's not Erdogan himself actually is leading the narrative.

06:15It's actually his more nationalist candidate, more nationalist ally is running this process,

06:22which actually makes the process stronger because he, Erdogan's ally, Devlet Bahçeli,

06:27is the main figure who's like one of the main anti-PKK or anti to some Kurdish figure in

06:34the past.

06:35And he's taking up this kind of peacemaker role, which kind of gives credibility to the

06:41process.

06:42But it's mostly about geopolitical shifts in the Middle East and stability.

06:47Resolving the Kurdish issue is potentially more significant than removal of, in the long

06:52term, removal of Erdogan for Turkish foreign policy or for European interests or for regional

06:57dimensions.

06:58I'm also curious about the street protests at the top.

07:00You mentioned that they seem likely to dissipate rather than intensify.

07:04But some of the people on the ground, they're saying, I'm out here not for political reasons,

07:08but for justice.

07:10This is wrong, the cases that are being brought against him.

07:13And I'm curious if Erdogan, how he handles this situation, could he do anything that

07:19might actually tip the tide and make you think that these protests will end up getting

07:23bigger and move into a larger anti-government sort of position that will be very difficult

07:29for him to control?

07:30Yeah, that's a very important question.

07:32For that, I would resort to recent history.

07:35I think Erdogan has been one of the most experienced politicians when it comes to dealing with

07:41street protests.

07:42He faced, in 2013, the biggest protest across Turkey in Turkish history.

07:48And later, he faced other kind of incidents.

07:53In this one, how they use the police in different cities, how they control the media, even access

08:00to internet, shows they're very much on top of things.

08:04And also, the kind of, the Kurdish element is not necessarily there, which kind of makes

08:15it less strong, the opposition.

08:20And the second, so one of them, the reason why the protests may not escalate is Erdogan's

08:27expertise.

08:28Secondly, it's Imamoglu also lacks deep-rooted support from the public.

08:35As I said, he has a more ambiguous ideological appeal.

08:38And the street protests are largely being led by the youth at the moment.

08:43We will have to see whether this segment will be able to bring in other segments of the

08:47society to protest.

08:50And I see that, from an objective point of view, unlikely to happen.

08:53I mean, Erdogan faced way more important or significant challenges before this, and he

08:58was able to come out stronger out of them.

09:01You mentioned the geopolitical angle earlier.

09:03Some people wondering, with Donald Trump in power in Washington, maybe Erdogan feels emboldened

09:08to make moves like this.

09:10But regardless of that, there is one factor here that might make him reconsider the Turkish

09:17lira tailspinning after Imamoglu was arrested.

09:23This is going to cost Turkey money.

09:25The question is, how far is Erdogan willing to go?

09:28And how much is that lira going to suffer?

09:30What do you think will happen?

09:31Exactly.

09:32Like, the diminishing of the value of lira has been the most important consequence so

09:36far of this move.

09:39But otherwise, the historical foreign condemnation hasn't significantly altered Turkey's internal

09:45political decisions.

09:47But the economy is very significant.

09:49But I believe international markets are not necessarily seeing Turkish, you know, broader

09:53Turkish political landscape objectively enough, because Erdogan is not taking, you know, they're

10:00not just moves towards more authoritarianism, they're also moves towards addressing deep-rooted

10:07security concerns and human rights issues all at the same time through the Kurdish issue.

10:12The resolution of the Kurdish issue usually in the past ended up causing, you know, broader

10:19improvement of the democratic standards in Turkey back in 2013 to 2015.

10:24We've seen that.

10:25I believe the international markets will calm down.

10:29I mean, at the moment, lira diminished a lot, but it will calm down in the next few weeks.

10:34Gunay, thank you so much for your time here.

10:37Gunay Yildiz, Visiting Fellow at the London School of Economics.

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