Erdogan could use Imamoglu detention to extend the term limit to presidency, analyst says

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00:00Shabnam Gamushu, she's a professor of political science and international

00:05relations as well as an author. She wrote the book Democracy or

00:08Authoritarianism, Islamist Governments in Turkey, Egypt and Tunisia. Shabnam, great

00:13to have you on the program, thanks so much for joining us. So we know that

00:16you're in Istanbul at the moment, there's been this ban on protests, we've

00:21also heard about reports of restrictions on social media platforms

00:25and also restrictions on the transport system. How has it been like for you

00:31today in Istanbul? Have you had any trouble getting around? Not me actually

00:36but I'm on the Anatolian side, the Asian side of the city, so the other side of

00:42the city was hard-hit. I know people could not commute early in the morning

00:46because they were trying to reach their workplaces but they could not ride the

00:50subway and there were a kind of an emergency rule imposed on parts of the

00:56city where people could not travel freely and obviously people could not

01:01also protest the decision that was made last night but also later in the morning

01:06today. Well we have seen you know some small protests springing up across the

01:11city in reaction to this arrest. Emelolu is being accused of corruption and

01:17having links to terrorism. Are you convinced by these charges? Not at all,

01:22so there were some rumours that the government would actually target him

01:26because he was becoming increasingly popular and a very much of an inspiring

01:32potential presidential candidate and indeed this Sunday there were primaries

01:37scheduled by his own party and he was the sole candidate in these primaries so

01:43we were expecting something of this sort but these charges are not as far as we

01:50know of course we don't know the details of the charges yet but we find them

01:55quite politically motivated because this is not the first time Erdogan has been

01:59using and wielding the weapon of the judiciary against his opponents so

02:05several leaders of the opposition parties have been charged with similar

02:11cases and Emelolu actually had six or seven investigations and one sentence

02:16that's waiting pending approval by higher courts and that was obviously

02:21very much politically charged because he basically called as your story

02:25covered the electoral council idiots for cancelling the 2019 elections so most of

02:31these charges are like you know related to corruption or aiding a terrorist

02:34organization and and whatnot and what the government is actually alluding to

02:39as aiding a terrorist organization is an informal electoral pact that

02:44Imamoglu had with Kurdish party and and Kurdish support supporters of the

02:50Kurdish party back in 2024 elections so building an electoral coalition is

02:57actually aiding and abetting a terrorist organization is is quite a long stretch

03:02and I'm not sure if the courts will be able to muster enough evidence to

03:08support that claim so we will see how this goes well as you mentioned that

03:12this isn't the first time Erdogan has tried to tighten his grip on power this

03:17arrest comes amid a flurry of detentions that have been taking place and it's not

03:21just politicians it seems like in Turkey at the moment anyone that says anything

03:26against the government seems to be under surveillance absolutely so that's also

03:32why we think that this is not a corruption case it is very much

03:37politically motivated because we have seen multiple different people from very

03:41different parts of life has been subject to a similar treatment so just in the

03:47last couple months we have seen another opposition leader a far-right

03:52nationalist party leader is arrested for insulting Erdogan and then we also had

03:58a couple weeks later to see out the largest business association that

04:02contributes sizable part of Turkish GDP two leaders of the business

04:07association criticized the government for its performance in multiple

04:11different respects and they were also brought before the courts and they were

04:15detained first and they were given travel bans and these are two business

04:20men with significant connections and ties to global markets and they cannot

04:25travel abroad just because they criticize the government and then

04:29similarly we have civil society leaders and philanthropists like Osman Kavala

04:33who spent seven years in prison now and he has given a life sentence and if that

04:42ruling is not overturned and with very flimsy evidence he was given that life

04:47sentence if that ruling is not overturned he's going to spend his the

04:52rest of his life in prison so civil society actors leaders political leaders

04:57and even ordinary citizens who are actually you know lashing out on social

05:01media are not immune they can be under surveillance and they can be brought

05:05before courts for insulting Erdogan for insulting the state for for all those

05:10you know different investigations and spreading misinformation and so

05:15forth so it's a very much a repressive environment now well Shabnam we know

05:20that Erdogan's ruling party wants him to run for a fourth term in 2028 he's going

05:28to need to amend the Constitution to do that can we take today's arrest as being

05:33a further step to making sure that he gets close to that goal of running in

05:38the next elections for sure so this can be seen as a way for Erdogan to start

05:45that negotiation political negotiation basically holding Ekrem İmamoğlu as

05:50hostage and his diploma was revoked just last night with a very questionable

05:55decision by Istanbul University so that basically effectively makes İmamoğlu

06:02ineligible to run for presidential office because he doesn't have a

06:05university diploma because of that decision so now Erdoğan has actually two

06:11points of leverage he can use against İmamoğlu and maybe push the main

06:15opposition party to negotiate for a third term or a fourth term for Erdoğan

06:20to change the Constitution and extend his term into a fourth term.

06:25Shabnam great to get your insight thank you so much for joining us on the

06:29program today Shabnam Gumusu who was just speaking to us there from Istanbul

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