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Report
Erdogan could use Imamoglu detention to extend the term limit to presidency, analyst says
FRANCE 24 English
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3/19/2025
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Transcript
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00:00
Shabnam Gamushu, she's a professor of political science and international
00:05
relations as well as an author. She wrote the book Democracy or
00:08
Authoritarianism, Islamist Governments in Turkey, Egypt and Tunisia. Shabnam, great
00:13
to have you on the program, thanks so much for joining us. So we know that
00:16
you're in Istanbul at the moment, there's been this ban on protests, we've
00:21
also heard about reports of restrictions on social media platforms
00:25
and also restrictions on the transport system. How has it been like for you
00:31
today in Istanbul? Have you had any trouble getting around? Not me actually
00:36
but I'm on the Anatolian side, the Asian side of the city, so the other side of
00:42
the city was hard-hit. I know people could not commute early in the morning
00:46
because they were trying to reach their workplaces but they could not ride the
00:50
subway and there were a kind of an emergency rule imposed on parts of the
00:56
city where people could not travel freely and obviously people could not
01:01
also protest the decision that was made last night but also later in the morning
01:06
today. Well we have seen you know some small protests springing up across the
01:11
city in reaction to this arrest. Emelolu is being accused of corruption and
01:17
having links to terrorism. Are you convinced by these charges? Not at all,
01:22
so there were some rumours that the government would actually target him
01:26
because he was becoming increasingly popular and a very much of an inspiring
01:32
potential presidential candidate and indeed this Sunday there were primaries
01:37
scheduled by his own party and he was the sole candidate in these primaries so
01:43
we were expecting something of this sort but these charges are not as far as we
01:50
know of course we don't know the details of the charges yet but we find them
01:55
quite politically motivated because this is not the first time Erdogan has been
01:59
using and wielding the weapon of the judiciary against his opponents so
02:05
several leaders of the opposition parties have been charged with similar
02:11
cases and Emelolu actually had six or seven investigations and one sentence
02:16
that's waiting pending approval by higher courts and that was obviously
02:21
very much politically charged because he basically called as your story
02:25
covered the electoral council idiots for cancelling the 2019 elections so most of
02:31
these charges are like you know related to corruption or aiding a terrorist
02:34
organization and and whatnot and what the government is actually alluding to
02:39
as aiding a terrorist organization is an informal electoral pact that
02:44
Imamoglu had with Kurdish party and and Kurdish support supporters of the
02:50
Kurdish party back in 2024 elections so building an electoral coalition is
02:57
actually aiding and abetting a terrorist organization is is quite a long stretch
03:02
and I'm not sure if the courts will be able to muster enough evidence to
03:08
support that claim so we will see how this goes well as you mentioned that
03:12
this isn't the first time Erdogan has tried to tighten his grip on power this
03:17
arrest comes amid a flurry of detentions that have been taking place and it's not
03:21
just politicians it seems like in Turkey at the moment anyone that says anything
03:26
against the government seems to be under surveillance absolutely so that's also
03:32
why we think that this is not a corruption case it is very much
03:37
politically motivated because we have seen multiple different people from very
03:41
different parts of life has been subject to a similar treatment so just in the
03:47
last couple months we have seen another opposition leader a far-right
03:52
nationalist party leader is arrested for insulting Erdogan and then we also had
03:58
a couple weeks later to see out the largest business association that
04:02
contributes sizable part of Turkish GDP two leaders of the business
04:07
association criticized the government for its performance in multiple
04:11
different respects and they were also brought before the courts and they were
04:15
detained first and they were given travel bans and these are two business
04:20
men with significant connections and ties to global markets and they cannot
04:25
travel abroad just because they criticize the government and then
04:29
similarly we have civil society leaders and philanthropists like Osman Kavala
04:33
who spent seven years in prison now and he has given a life sentence and if that
04:42
ruling is not overturned and with very flimsy evidence he was given that life
04:47
sentence if that ruling is not overturned he's going to spend his the
04:52
rest of his life in prison so civil society actors leaders political leaders
04:57
and even ordinary citizens who are actually you know lashing out on social
05:01
media are not immune they can be under surveillance and they can be brought
05:05
before courts for insulting Erdogan for insulting the state for for all those
05:10
you know different investigations and spreading misinformation and so
05:15
forth so it's a very much a repressive environment now well Shabnam we know
05:20
that Erdogan's ruling party wants him to run for a fourth term in 2028 he's going
05:28
to need to amend the Constitution to do that can we take today's arrest as being
05:33
a further step to making sure that he gets close to that goal of running in
05:38
the next elections for sure so this can be seen as a way for Erdogan to start
05:45
that negotiation political negotiation basically holding Ekrem İmamoğlu as
05:50
hostage and his diploma was revoked just last night with a very questionable
05:55
decision by Istanbul University so that basically effectively makes İmamoğlu
06:02
ineligible to run for presidential office because he doesn't have a
06:05
university diploma because of that decision so now ErdoÄŸan has actually two
06:11
points of leverage he can use against İmamoğlu and maybe push the main
06:15
opposition party to negotiate for a third term or a fourth term for ErdoÄŸan
06:20
to change the Constitution and extend his term into a fourth term.
06:25
Shabnam great to get your insight thank you so much for joining us on the
06:29
program today Shabnam Gumusu who was just speaking to us there from Istanbul
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