Valspar Championship Betting Preview and PGA Tour Insights

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00:00Live right here on this Wednesday morning. We welcome you back to the early line on Sports Green and each and every week

00:05We get you set for a new stop out on the PGA tour

00:09We do that as always with our guy Keith Stewart live right here on this Wednesday on

00:15TEL Keith we appreciate the time as always

00:18Hope the travel back from the Sunshine State was smooth glad to have you here on the early line

00:23Then it was extremely smooth and you know what?

00:25It's a lot smoother than what's going on down in Tampa this week for the Valspar championship

00:30We'll talk about that in just a matter of moments golf's fifth unofficial major this past weekend

00:36Of course at the Players Championship a Monday playoff finish

00:41Rory McIlroy comes out on top Keith. What was your main takeaway from all the action?

00:46We saw in a five-day window at TPC sawgrass

00:50It's reminding me of this trend Ben and and that is is that over the last couple years a

00:56Superstar has won multiple times heading into the Masters, right three years ago. It was Scotty Scheffler two years ago

01:02It was John Rahm. He wins the Masters last year. It was Scotty Scheffler again multiple wins heading into the Masters

01:08He wins the Masters is Rory setting up for the most unbelievable narrative that everyone wants

01:14Which is him to get a green jacket

01:15I can tell you this much by the time I get to Magnolia Lane and we're talking that Wednesday morning

01:20The the storylines will be absolutely suffocating. So for me another elite event another elite winner in

01:282025

01:29Now Keith, we can't wait for these elite events where we need to bring you in to see who got arrested before that big

01:34Golf tournament here. Maybe it's the Masters April 10th to the 13th here boots on the ground is what we love now

01:40We don't have boots on the ground this weekend at the Valspar championship

01:43Taking place at the Innisbrook resorts in Palm Harbor, Florida. Tell us a little bit about this golf course now it sets up

01:49Well Donnie, I mean, I'm actually kind of happy

01:52I'm not boots on the ground this week because the weather is supposed to be wild on Thursday

01:56And as of such you cannot believe I mean, this is a betting show, right?

01:59You cannot believe

02:01The odds movement that has happened this week from Monday when the odds were dropped

02:05Until Tuesday when the weather started to get closer to Thursday afternoon

02:08The people in my world believe that there's going to be a huge wave advantage for the a.m. P.m. Guys

02:14So that's the guys that start on Thursday morning and then they complete their second round on

02:19Friday afternoon that that p.m. A.m. Wave the guys on Thursday afternoon

02:23They're supposed to get gusting winds around 30 miles an hour

02:2620 miles an hour kind of steady winds that Palm Harbor where the Valspar championship is played is right near the Gulf of America

02:34So, you know it could it could get a little bit dicey

02:37But I've never seen anything since they started posting

02:41Golf lines on these major mobile apps, right?

02:44I have not seen lines move like this the leaders alone the favorites JT

02:48Tommy Fleetwood and Xander Shoffley were all sitting at 14 to 1 when the week started right now JT because he's in the afternoon

02:56He goes to 2 plus plus

02:582000 20 to 1 whereas whereas Tommy is now the decided favorite and he's down at a plus

03:051100 I mean this type of movement and it went and it went through the entire the top fives the top tens the matchups everything

03:12Everything changed yesterday

03:14My world was it was in a frenzy and when it comes down to it, you know as a former golf course operator

03:19We know nothing about the weather. I think it's absolutely comical

03:23It is wild though Keith to see that market movement based on the weather and as you alluded to Justin Thomas

03:30Moving back a 20 to 1 price the odds shortening for both Tommy Fleetwood and Xander Shoffley

03:36Do you think either of those two favorites will take advantage of what could be a beneficial draw this week in Tampa?

03:42At the top of the board

03:43You've got four guys that really the boards are leaning on

03:47Sep Strock would be the fourth with the other names that we've mentioned of all of them

03:50I think the one we could basically lean on the most is Tommy Fleetwood and I'm not saying that because of the a.m.

03:56Advantage, but I'm just saying that because of his late balls his recent ball striking and the way that he has been playing now

04:03Keep in mind Tommy Fleetwood, although he's won many times over on the DP World Tour that European tour

04:08He has not won over here before you've got a couple guys here that have yet to really close the deal

04:14More often than not Sep Strock. He's won already this year

04:18But JT JT hasn't won since the PGA Championship in 2021 and he was really really shaky

04:24It was a rollercoaster ride with JT at Sawgrass

04:26I don't have a lot of faith in the top of the board here and with the wild numbers and the value we're getting in

04:32the afternoon

04:33You're gonna see in my early leans that I'm I'm jumping further down

04:38By the way before we get to the early leans to because as we talked about like I love the Masters tournament

04:42It's coming up in just a few weeks here. Are we gonna see a lot of the top players playing the next couple tournaments here?

04:47They're gonna take it easier into the Masters and also some of these players

04:50Ramping up their game just for the Masters talk about that a little bit Keith

04:54Well, Donny, we are four weeks away

04:56So we've got three tournaments after the Valspar here if you wanted to take a week off after a trying, you know

05:02Test up there at Sawgrass. I don't blame anybody but you're gonna see a lot of action next week in Houston at Memorial Park

05:08That's an event that Scottie Scheffler Rory a bunch of the guys, you know

05:12Big names that we are eyeing will Zala Taurus for the Masters and Magnolia Lane

05:17Those guys are gonna be jumping in there and then you're gonna have the Valero which is in San Antonio and then that leads right

05:22Into Augusta you're gonna see you're gonna see less guys heading in there in that last week at San Antonio

05:28And you're gonna see a lot next week in Houston

05:30I mean as far as I'm concerned

05:31There's a lot of question marks around everybody at the top of the board Zander coming back from injury Scotty coming back from injury

05:37and not being

05:392024 Scotty Rory winning twice and looking really really solid whether he plays here or Dubai

05:46There's there's a lot of interesting things going on. I mean you got Willie Z who has looked really good lately guys

05:51I look at him every single week because when is he coming back?

05:54He's sitting on the some futures boards at 50 to 1 at Augusta

05:58This is a guy that's been runner-up there and a bunch of top tens

06:00I mean

06:01these are things that I'm definitely watching and

06:03there's a lot of great narratives building as there always are heading into Augusta National a

06:09busy opening weekend of April in San Antonio, Texas

06:13The Valero, Texas open and of course the final four which leads us into Masters week at Augusta National

06:20Keith quickly back to the bounce bar final minute of this segment. It's the favorite thing to do each and every week

06:25You are here your early leans on the early lines

06:28Give us a couple of winners for this week at the bounce bar championship. All right, the first guy Alex Smalley

06:33He started the week at plus 4500. He's now plus 7,000. Yes

06:37He's on that Thursday afternoon, but he's got five top 21s in his last six starts Tina green

06:43He is exemplary in this field. He's played really really well the Duke grad if you need a final four narrative

06:48He's your guy. Oh, you know in

06:512025 he's averaging six yard strokes gained per start really really solid player the other guy Jake Knapp

06:58Don't fall asleep on this guy, right plus 6,000 to start the week plus

07:039,000 now again another afternoon guy, right but shot 59 at cognizant and since the WMPO

07:091725 6th and 12th in Florida really really good with the putter and the irons

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