Incoming Trump administration may go 'as far as war' with Iran, expert says

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00:00Well, joining me to discuss this Eberhard Kinley, Research Director at CNRS.

00:05Thank you so much for taking the time to speak to us today on the program.

00:09Thank you for having me.

00:11So the ceasefire deal that's been struck is rather similar to the one proposed by Biden

00:16back in May, but it's only taking place now.

00:18So would you say Trump was the catalyst for this outcome?

00:22Yes, to an extent, I suppose.

00:26He certainly wanted to have some good news for himself before his inauguration.

00:31And I suppose it's largely to do with his prestige, his sense of prestige, and of course,

00:38his ability to put perhaps additional pressure temporarily on Netanyahu, who was not extremely

00:46impressed by the pressures, the very limited pressure exercised by Biden.

00:52Now that we're cautiously optimistic about things moving on in the region, what kind

00:58of impact do you think Trump will have on the Middle East?

01:01Would you say that his approach will be more or less in the same direction as Joe Biden's?

01:07It's very difficult to say at that stage, because we all know that President Trump or

01:11future President Trump, he will only be inaugurated tomorrow, that he is volatile, that he is

01:17not always extremely consistent, as we have seen in other issues like the Bitcoin issue.

01:23Now, this being said, there are a few, I think if we go back in history, there are a few

01:29sort of guiding lines that help us to understand where he might be going within, of course,

01:35these parameters of volatility.

01:37I suppose he is still very much wedded to his old ideas, the ones like the Abraham Accords

01:45and the Trump plan in 2020.

01:50So I think if we go back to his first mandate, we will see what is in store for the Middle East.

02:01It's more or less in the same vein as what you said, but under the first Trump administration,

02:05the US recognised Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

02:09He also recognised Jerusalem as the capital and closed the PLO office in Washington as well.

02:14Are we likely to see this sort of hardline approach continue then?

02:20I suppose this is the most likely option.

02:23Again, we don't quite know.

02:25But if some pressure was exercised or exerted on Netanyahu this time round, that does not

02:31mean that the American plans and the Trump plans for the Middle East are, say, hostile

02:39to what the current Israeli government considers as its interest.

02:44So indeed, I think deals in the Israeli-Palestinian affairs that will be proposed or suggested

02:52will be much more in the Israeli interest than in the Palestinian interest.

02:59Now let's talk a bit about Trump's ties with the Israeli government, because we've heard

03:04reports that his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has doubled his stake in a financial firm

03:09that stands to gain from financing illegal Israeli settlements in the Palestinian territory.

03:14I wonder what you make of this.

03:16Well, I suppose this is sadly true.

03:22So there may be a conflict of interest.

03:25But I suppose even without such a conflict of interest, what we know about Trump, what

03:32we know about his earlier policies, indicates that any deal that will be suggested or proposed

03:38will be far less in the Palestinian interest than in the Israeli interest, or at least

03:43in the interest as formulated by the current Israeli government.

03:46So I think the conflict of interest issue is one of them, but certainly not the major

03:51one.

03:52By and large, people who voted for Trump, by and large the people around him, are certainly

03:57much closer to the current Israeli government than to the Palestinian administration or,

04:03of course, to Hamas.

04:05And how do you think the U.S. support for annexation impact Israel's relations with

04:11its Arab neighbors, particularly those involved in the Abraham Accords?

04:17This is difficult to say, because, well, last time around, of course, these proposals, they

04:26did not go through for the obvious reason that Trump is no longer president.

04:30Now, we remember also that in the old days, Saudi Arabia was, well, not divided, but it

04:36was sort of not entirely opposed to these ideas.

04:40And I suppose the Saudi government at the time would have accepted a deal that favors

04:48Israeli interest.

04:49Today, this may be different.

04:51However, we should also see that the Gulf states, they do not have that much sort of

04:56leeway or that much of leverage on the United States.

04:59So it may well be that a new President Trump will try to impose or will try to impose a

05:06solution that may even contradict the interests of some of its allies.

05:12And going forward, do you expect Trump to prioritize a long-term solution for Gaza,

05:18or will his focus remain on supporting Israel's security efforts?

05:25Trump and long-term solutions seem to be a contradiction in terms.

05:30We already mentioned his, say, volatility and his tendency to change his opinion.

05:39Now, I don't think that Trump is at this particular moment thinking about a long-term solution.

05:46He is thinking about a short-term solution, which will help his inauguration, which will

05:51help him in the early days of his new mandate.

05:55I do not think that he is in a position at the moment to envisage anything in the longer

06:02term.

06:03Now, also the people around him, we'll have to see who will sort of wield more influence

06:09in this Trump administration, people like, for instance, the new or the probably new

06:14Ambassador Huckabee to Jerusalem, or Waltz, the national security advisor.

06:23There are people who are certainly more able and more willing to think about long-term

06:29solutions than others.

06:31So I think this is really, the jury is out.

06:34However, if there is a long-term solution, or if Trump sort of continues to push his

06:42agenda, the one that he pushed some four years ago, we will see a long-term solution

06:49that is in the favor of the current Israeli government in its majority, however fragile

06:53it is.

06:54It will be one that will possibly go to annexation and maybe the expulsion of Palestinians from

07:02Gaza, maybe from the West Bank.

07:04This is certainly a possibility.

07:06There is a possibility also that we will move, if reason prevails in Washington, that we

07:11will move to some sort of two-state solution, something, however, that will be not two states

07:17as we imagined them normally, but one state, Israel, and a statelet, which would be Palestine,

07:25as envisaged under the first Trump plan.

07:27Now, there is also possibly the, well, what I would call the latest Blinken plan, a solution

07:36that he sketched out a few days ago at the Atlantic Council, which would involve the

07:41Palestinian Authority, which would involve non-Hamas representatives from Gaza, which

07:49would involve international forces from Arab countries and abroad, either, as well in a

07:55sort of transitory government and in a transitory security force.

08:01However, I think, well, however difficult this would be to put in place, it's not something

08:06that is likely to win the favors of Trump.

08:09So I suppose the sort of less favorable options for the Palestinians are more likely.

08:17And just lastly, if you will, how would you characterize Trump's strategy vis-a-vis Iran?

08:23Are we likely to see a continuation of the maximum pressure approach we saw during his

08:28first administration?

08:30Again, with the caveats earlier made, we are not sure.

08:34Still, this is very likely.

08:36Now, Trump in general, so far we have seen, is not somebody who would like to go to war.

08:43I think his instincts, his ideas is to put pressure through economic pressure, blockades,

08:52sanctions, and so on and so forth.

08:54I think this is the general approach.

08:56And that's, I suppose, what he meant if all hell would might break loose in the Middle

09:00East, that he would resort to these sort of issues, to these sort of techniques.

09:04However, with Iran, I think there may be an exception, and indeed maximum pressure may

09:10go as far as war.

09:12Eberhard Kindler from CNRS, thank you so much for taking the time to speak to us on France

09:1724 today.

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