Second phase of ceasefire depends on Trump administration, expert says

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00:00We can speak to Yossi Melkelberg. He's a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House's Middle East

00:04and North Africa program. Hello to you, Yossi. When we're looking at some of the images that

00:12we've seen from this fourth round of exchanges and how it's been handled, how would you contrast that

00:18with what we saw earlier this week? Yes, thank you for having me. I think it's a bit better

00:25because we don't see big crowds actually surrounding and hostages. At the same time,

00:34I don't think it's unacceptable to parade the hostages, put them on stage,

00:39feeling them surrounded by armed people. I didn't think this is completely inhumane,

00:45those people that suffered a lot. And, you know, regardless of everything else,

00:50especially if you think about the case of Yarden Bebes, that we're still very concerned about his

00:56family and he doesn't know what they're afraid of. The last thing he needs is this so-called

01:02ceremony. Sorry, just to cut you off, to just play off that, what do you think Hamas is trying

01:09to communicate by how it's chosen to organize that release and put them on the stage like that?

01:15I think they don't understand what they are trying to do. They are still in power,

01:20they are still in control of the situation, they are still the government. They are the people,

01:25if you want to do business when it comes to the hostages and maybe to the future of Gaza,

01:30then you need to talk to them. You know, Israel misguided the objective of this world to

01:38completely eliminate. Hamas is actually backfired because we see this picture and they show,

01:45hey, we are still having guns, we are still can run the show, and we are the one that's,

01:51you know, you can't get it from the PA. It's a double, because also when it comes to the

01:56Palestinian prisoners, they insist of releasing also Fatah prisoner, not only Hamas, they also

02:02show their own people, you know, what the PA and the Fatah couldn't achieve for you,

02:08we can achieve, we can do that. And this is another layer of the tragedy of this world.

02:15Yeah, and we've heard from Israeli officials, skepticism from some of them outright, rejection

02:22of a second phase of the ceasefire deal. What, if you had to predict, what do you think is next?

02:28It's going to be very tough. I think there within the Israeli coalition, within the government,

02:35there is still one right-wing party that's very much against the second phase, because the second

02:41phase also entail end of war, they want to continue the war. And I think much of it is

02:50going to be decided in the White House. Prime Minister Netanyahu is flying out to Washington

02:56for his first meeting with Trump in the second term. And I think very much of it depends on

03:04Trump insisting that this is a three-phased, agreed ceasefire deal, and both sides need to

03:12see it through. From this stage of 33 hostages, from prisoners, the return of Palestinians,

03:20of Gazan people to north Gaza, followed by the second phase, the release of the rest of the

03:25hostages, and end of war, and then moving to the reconstruction of Gaza. But the coalition

03:33in Israel is very fragile, and we know that Netanyahu facing corruption trial, and he needs

03:39this coalition not only to stay in power, but probably to keep him out of jail, see what he

03:45prefers, caving in to the right-wing in Israel, and by that, abandoning the rest of the hostages,

03:54or actually listening to what the United States wants.

03:57Yeah, and is Netanyahu's approval rating or popularity

04:01been boosted since the ceasefire deal went into effect?

04:05I don't think by much. Still, all the opinion polls show that Israel wants,

04:12most Israelis wanted this deal for a very long time, and as a result of not reaching this deal

04:18a month ago, more hostages are not going to return alive. And probably the most difficult part of

04:25this hostages return is still waiting. Now we see those who are coming back alive. Sadly,

04:32there will be more and more people that are not hostages, that are not returning home alive,

04:37and some of the responsibility is also with the Israeli government for not agreeing

04:43this deal at least last May. So this is what Netanyahu should take responsibility. I think

04:49the Israeli people will hold him responsible and accountable for that.

04:54The United States, clearly Israel's biggest ally, but under the previous administration

05:00in the White House, under Joe Biden, time and again, we saw a disconnect between what

05:04his administration was saying and what Netanyahu's government was doing in Israel. Now Donald Trump

05:11is in office. How much influence do you think Trump will have on Netanyahu? And do you think

05:17they'll be able to be on the same page? Yeah, with Biden, the painful disconnect

05:22that you mentioned delayed this deal by many months with heavy costs for not hostage,

05:28but obviously for many, many Palestinians of Gaza that were killed and suffered as a result of it.

05:35Trump, on the one hand, he talks about bringing peace, and without him and his administration,

05:42probably this deal would never have happened or been delayed by many months. And he deserves

05:48credit for that. But he also sent completely contradictory signals when he talks about

05:54Egypt and Jordan, accepting hundreds and thousands, if not millions, of people from

06:01Gaza and insisting on this. He undermines the Palestinian society, undermines Jordan and Egypt,

06:09and also undermines what he says that he would like, to see peace. So it's very difficult. At

06:16the same time, also agreed again to send to Israel two tons of bombs, and there are some

06:23talks about 24,000 submachine guns that the Biden administration decided to suspend.

06:32So it's, as we expected, Trump is going to be unpredictable and so many times

06:39incoherent in his policies. And about that, the incoherent point,

06:44I want to press you on. When we hear the language that Trump used to talk about Gaza this week,

06:50to talk about clearing it out and sending these Gazans to Egypt or Jordan, what would amount to

06:55be a forced displacement, calling Gaza a demolition site, is that sort of language,

07:00which is explosive, clearly, is that something that's off the cuff? Or do you think that's

07:06something that he intentionally says that he knows what he's doing when he uses those words?

07:11I think our experience with Trump that empathy is not his strongest point.

07:17And I think this kind of language, to look at it as a real estate that needs demolition,

07:22we are talking about 2.3 million people that went through hell, the suffering of 16 months now,

07:30and to think that, you know, just displace them again against their will. And when they talk that,

07:35you know, they're in agreement, it's not agreement with the people. They don't want to go. They want

07:39to see the reconstruction of Gaza. This is their home. This is their land. They would like to live

07:44in a Palestinian state. And what Trump is doing is being, again, insensitive to that. And again,

07:53forced displacement goes against international law. It's a war crime.

07:57Right. Imminent talks focusing on the next stage of the ceasefire, as we've been discussing,

08:02that's supposed to include the withdrawal of Israeli troops from all of Gaza and the release

08:07of more hostages. I'm not going to ask you what you want to happen, Yossi, but what do you think

08:12will happen? Yeah, sadly, there is difference between the two. I hope it won't. I think,

08:19again, much of this depends on the insistence of Donald Trump and his administration. By Monday,

08:26both sides, it's the deadline for both sides to restart negotiating over phase two. And I think

08:34there is a good chance that the Israeli government might collapse as a result of that, lose its

08:39support. Netanyahu, if he wants, if he wishes, still has the support of the opposition,

08:44at least to see the phase two out and send the hostages back. But my fear is Netanyahu might

08:53prefer his own interest or staying in power than the lives and the fate of the hostages.

09:02That's at least the experience of the last 16 months. Yossi, this Saturday, the Rafah border

09:08crossing opening for the first time since May. The Hamas health ministry said that 50 Palestinian

09:15patients crossed that border to Egypt. How significant is this development?

09:21I think it's significant. I think we felt our fears, concerns that this ceasefire won't see

09:30its three phases. We also, in the two weeks of this ceasefire, we have seen some good signs. We

09:36see the release of the hostages. Both sides adhere to the agreement, also releasing of the

09:42Palestinian prisoner, the return of many Palestinians to north Gaza. And now the opening,

09:50humanitarian aid, hundreds and hundreds of trucks with humanitarian aid entering into Gaza. And now

09:56the Rafah crossing, and allowing for humanitarian reasons to allow those who got injured to get

10:03medical treatment. So we see some progress. It's to ensure that it creates some momentum,

10:09that both sides internalize this war is over, and we need to move to talk about the next phases,

10:18even beyond the reconstruction of Gaza, for a durable peace between the Israelis and Palestinians,

10:24as far-fetched as it looks at the moment. Yossi, thank you for taking the time to speak to us.

10:30Chatham House's Yossi Mechelberg, joining us from London. Thank you.

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