Ohio State vs Notre Dame: National Championship Preview

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00:00And the Buckeyes are heavily favored to do so.

00:03They're an eight and a half point favorite,

00:06open as a nine and a half point favorite

00:09for the national championship game

00:11exactly one week from tonight in Atlanta.

00:14It's the Buckeyes of Ohio State.

00:16It's the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame.

00:19Yes, and I'm looking forward to that.

00:20Should be a good football game.

00:22I wanna see if that Irish defense can prevail,

00:23because one thing we do know is it's way more talent

00:25on one side of the football,

00:27but sometimes that doesn't matter

00:28when it's a one game finish here,

00:30just play your best football.

00:31But let me ask you a question

00:32about the future of Texas, right?

00:33Because we do think it's Arch Manning.

00:35But let me ask you this though,

00:36Quinn Ewers has a year left with eligibility.

00:39He comes back to Texas,

00:40we would assume that Arch Manning

00:42would not play again, right?

00:44No, it's not going to happen twofold.

00:46Quinn Ewers also told ESPN's Pete Dammel

00:49before the Cotton Bowl,

00:49he intends to enter the NFL draft

00:51in what appears to be a weak quarterback class.

00:54Even if he decides that that is not his future,

00:57he's in the transfer portal.

00:59Quinn Ewers is not going to play again for Texas.

01:02Well, why not though,

01:03if he's the better quarterback and Stark likes him better?

01:05Like if he said, I'm coming back,

01:06like let's just say Drew Aller,

01:07where there's nobody really behind him,

01:08the kid transferred.

01:09But if he did come back, it would be interesting.

01:11I just look at it like this.

01:13If the kid was such a good recruit,

01:15you should have played him as a freshman,

01:16because quite frankly,

01:17you might've won a national championship this year

01:19if he had 10, 12, 15, 20 starts under his belt.

01:22I think it was mismanagement.

01:23Because when I watched Texas,

01:25I always thought the problem was Quinn Ewers, honestly.

01:28And Donnie, you're right to question why

01:30Steve Sarkisian did not make the move this year.

01:33A couple of things, Quinn Ewers did not go to Texas

01:36during his freshman year.

01:37He went to Ohio State and then quickly became

01:39the starting quarterback in favor of Hudson Card

01:42back in 2022.

01:43He was elite last year in the biggest games,

01:45that being Ewers.

01:47He faltered this year in the most significant of stages.

01:50He threw for 283 yards and two touchdowns

01:53against that Buckeyes defense, as good as you will see,

01:57and an interception at the end, but costly turnovers.

02:00Not sure the strip sack was all on him.

02:03He never saw Jack Sawyer coming to his right side.

02:07And again, even if it wasn't a strip sack,

02:09Texas would have turned the football over on downs

02:12for Ohio State probably to ice out the game.

02:15Just all to say, Donnie,

02:17if Quinn Ewers were to decide to return to college football,

02:20it would not be at Texas.

02:21I think the Longhorns have learned

02:23their future is in Arch Manning.

02:26It might've been Quinn Ewers now.

02:28It is Arch in the future.

02:30Live right here on the Early Line on Sports Grid,

02:33rounding out our first day of this new week.

02:35It is a Monday on TEL.

02:38Of course, Monday night football,

02:40a finale tonight to the wild card weekend,

02:43the opening round of the NFL playoffs

02:45with one more spot at stake in the divisional round.

02:48Tonight between the Vikings and the Rams.

02:50The winner will head to Philadelphia

02:52next Sunday afternoon to take on the Eagles.

02:55Philly, again, hypothetically,

02:57would be a three and a half point favorite

02:58against the Vikings at home.

03:00And that projected matchup,

03:02nearly a touchdown favorite against the Rams,

03:04a six and a half point number.

03:07That's next Sunday.

03:09Tonight is Monday, exactly one week from today.

03:12It's a college football playoff national championship game

03:16in Atlanta, Georgia, inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

03:19It's Notre Dame and Ohio State

03:22to be crowned a national champion

03:24in the first ever 12-team college football playoff.

03:28The largest field ever in a college football postseason

03:32in a chase for a national championship,

03:35requiring the most wins necessary

03:37to be crowned a national title winner.

03:40You heard it from DRS,

03:41and allow me just to make a point

03:43before we dive into the early numbers

03:45for next Monday's game.

03:47A lot was said about the college football playoff

03:50in the first ever 12-team rendition of it

03:54in that opening round, right?

03:56On-campus games, how cool and exciting those atmospheres were

04:01paled in comparison to the results.

04:0317.3 points per game,

04:05the average margin of our four games in the opening round.

04:09And in fact, we saw a lot of double-digit games as well

04:12in the quarterfinals between Boise State and Penn State,

04:16Oregon, Ohio State,

04:17even a game we expected to be close.

04:20Heck, Georgia and Notre Dame

04:21was still decided by two scores.

04:24The only game decided by a single score

04:26in our first eight matchups in our first two games

04:29was that wonderful double overtime thriller

04:32in the Peach Bowl between Arizona State and Texas.

04:35And that game featured a 13.5 point spread.

04:38The reason I bring all of this up

04:40because what we are seeing

04:42even in wildcard weekend in the NFL,

04:44or as we see in the NBA,

04:46in the opening rounds of a post-season,

04:48certainly in Major League Baseball as well,

04:51that once you reach the playoffs in any format,

04:55you are going to have blowouts

04:57even between the best teams in a league,

04:59the good teams that qualify for playoff success.

05:02There are different tiers.

05:03There are different pegs of what you will reach

05:06in terms of being elite,

05:08in terms of being on the upper echelon,

05:10in terms of being a true contender

05:13to be crowned a champion.

05:15And we have seen that in college football.

05:18I think there is little doubt

05:19that we saw the four best teams in the country

05:21actually square off by the time we reached the semifinals.

05:25And of course, in both games,

05:26the deciding moment of said matchup

05:29was in the final two plus minutes of regulation,

05:32a 41-yard field goal to win it

05:34off the right foot of Mitch Jeter

05:36between Notre Dame and Penn State

05:38in an exciting and exhilarating fourth quarter

05:41in Texas with first and goal at the one,

05:44needing to try to go for it on fourth and goal

05:47down by a touchdown

05:48with just over two minutes remaining in regulation

05:51only to have Jack Sawyer

05:53make perhaps one of the best defensive plays

05:55Ohio State has seen in over a decade.

05:59That is beautiful.

06:00You weed out the weaker teams,

06:02even in a post-season format in those early rounds

06:06to get the best of the best squaring off

06:08in the most significant moments of a game

06:11decided on an actual playing surface.

06:14And that's what we should have

06:15for a national championship next Monday night.

06:18Although the odds expected to be rather one-sided,

06:23Ohio State is an eight and a half point favorite.

06:25Our total is 45 and a hook.

06:28The projected spread was nine and a half

06:31in favor of the Buckeyes.

06:32As soon as Ohio State edged out Texas in a cotton ball

06:36in a line for this specific national title matchup

06:39opened up, it was still nine and a half

06:41in favor of the Buckeyes.

06:43Yes, we have seen some buyback on that spread,

06:46expecting Notre Dame to keep this game

06:48just a little bit closer,

06:50but it's still north of a touchdown.

06:53I do want to remind everybody,

06:55just in case even a national championship game

06:58seems a little bit lopsided,

07:01that in the 10-year history of the four-team format

07:03of the college football playoff,

07:05half of those 10 national championship games

07:08decided by at least three touchdowns

07:10with an average margin of 21.4 points per game.

07:15Just keep that in mind.

07:17But I expect this game to be closer.

07:19I think Notre Dame's defense has earned that benefit.

07:23And I think the Irish will be able to have enough success

07:26on the ground to keep this game close.

07:29I already bet Notre Dame plus nine and a half.

07:32I have two national championship tickets.

07:35One that I bet in early October on Ohio State,

07:38one that I bet as soon as the bracket

07:40for the college football playoff was revealed on Notre Dame.

07:44I'm feeling pretty good this week.

07:46That does it for the early line today.

07:48Returns tomorrow, 8 a.m. Eastern time on a Tuesday.

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