Analyzing Playoff Leaders & QB Playoff Performances

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00:00Playoff leaders, passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, these conversations are always

00:08fun and they tie into who you feel can go the furthest.

00:15Obviously the kind of game that you play with this is the fact that the one seeds are favored

00:20to go to the Super Bowl, but if they do, they will play as many games as the team they would

00:27eliminate in the conference championship game.

00:30That is why right now Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are in front of a Pat Mahomes or why

00:36even a Sam Darnold is in front of a Jared Goff.

00:40So let's just stick with the quarterbacks for now.

00:44When you look at this market, Donnie, layoff leader, passing yards, whose number stands

00:50out to you the most?

00:51I mean, look, Josh Allen, the way he's going to get to a Super Bowl, is it really behind

00:56his arm or is it a mix of let's run the football, let's have him run the football, let's make

01:00some timely plays?

01:01Lamar Jackson, I've been screaming about this since last year when they lost to the Kansas

01:05City Chiefs.

01:06You don't have to throw the football 35 to 40 times a game, but he is going to get that

01:09maximum number of games played.

01:11Sam Darnold at a 6 to 1 price here.

01:14We're saying, you know what, if this team makes a deep run, it's probably going to be

01:17on his arm as opposed to Aaron Jones in the backfield.

01:20Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, as we talked about here, looking at them on the buy.

01:24For me, it might be just so simple to say, if you think a team can make a run and make

01:29a difference, maybe it would be Sam Darnold at the 6 to 1, because I do think now at a

01:33neutral site, they're going to beat the Rams, and he's probably going to throw for 275-plus

01:37in that game.

01:38Then you get to the next weekend, look who he's going up against, the Detroit team, where

01:41you know you're going to have to throw the football to beat that team, and if you do,

01:44he's probably not throwing for less than 225 in that game.

01:47You're looking for 275-plus in multiple touchdowns, then it brings up, you've got to beat the

01:50Eagles.

01:51So really, even though, I'm saying, the pathway is still hard for the Vikings, but that price

01:56point and how they're going to win football games might make some sense to me.

01:59Yeah, it's good value at 6 to 1 with Sam Darnold.

02:01I actually like LA, so I wouldn't go that route.

02:04I would go the second tier.

02:06I would take a shot on Jared Goff, Pat Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts, and I think Jalen Hurts has

02:11good value, assuming that they get by Green Bay tomorrow, one-half point home favorite,

02:15even though they want to run the football with Saquon Barkley, I believe that if Philly

02:20gets through Green Bay, they're going to be in the NFC Championship game, so you're

02:23going to get the extra game, you know, to catch up on some of the other guys at plus

02:27850.

02:28I think it's pretty good value.

02:29They're going to have to throw, I believe, especially tomorrow, I believe, Philly.

02:33I think Green Bay will take away Saquon to some capacity, so even if, you know, you're

02:38talking about 225 maybe for Hurts tomorrow, I still think he can break out in the other

02:43two games, so plus 850 for me is good value.

02:46So that, Hurts is an interesting one.

02:50There's something within my Sell Me Something we'll get to later where I think it's like

02:53a tricky way to bet a team to win a conference, but Philly is plus 320 to win the conference.

02:59You're getting 850 for him.

03:00Again, typically, the goal would be to get a four-game player in any of these markets,

03:06right?

03:07So I'll go to you, Donnie.

03:08If I tell you, hey, the Eagles make the Super Bowl, do you think that Hurts, in four games,

03:15will still throw for enough yardage for you to be happy about that ticket at plus 850?

03:19Yeah, no, and it should make sense, because you're looking at styles to make points, as

03:22Joe says.

03:23We might get, I don't want to say a lower-scoring game tomorrow, but you got two really good

03:26running backs, and the MO of the Philadelphia Eagles is make sure Saquon gets the football,

03:30but then you're trying to line them up on who they might play in that second round and

03:33how much you can pass, and even, quite frankly, in the NFC title game.

03:36I'm going to tell you this right now.

03:37You get to an NFC title game, and it's the Detroit Lions and the Philadelphia Eagles

03:40that give.

03:41The Eagles won.

03:42You know, Saquon had a good game, but Jalen Hurts had 195 passing.

03:45No, like, Jalen Hurts is probably going to have to throw for three bills in that game,

03:49and then you're saying, okay, when you get to the Super Bowl, what happens if it is Patrick

03:52Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, because he's played well in the past before?

03:55It's not a bad price, but I was just trying to take a look at saying, what's the price

03:59point, and what do I think the game plans would be?

04:01Because to me, even though the Eagles have sensational offensive line, wide receivers,

04:05and tight ends, the MO is, let's make sure that guy in the backfield gets 20 to 25 carries.

04:11I just don't see that with a team like Minnesota.

04:12Like, Minnesota's going to win on Kevin O'Connell's offense, absolutely rolling, and Justin Jefferson

04:16and Addison have been big games for me.

04:18Yeah, I think, again, the Hurts thing is odd, because that plus 850, compared to the conference

04:24number, it's tempting.

04:26I think that Jalen could have a 300-yard game, but I also think the world where he does finish

04:31one of those games with a buck 40 would not be surprising.

04:34And they can still win.

04:35He threw for 118 yards against Baltimore in that victory, right?

04:38Which is, I think, kind of what a lot of them are like, where's he throwing the ball?

04:42AJ losing his mind, and things of that nature.

04:45I think the most, you talk about value, right?

04:49To me, it's Herbert at 17 to 1.

04:52That is a very surprising number, but considering they are booked as favorites this round of

04:58a field goal, I don't think Donald's a good, I don't think he's good value.

05:02You could win the ticket, he's a lesser favorite than Herbert, and I don't know what the pathway

05:09for Donald is to be favorite in round number two.

05:12I'm trying to, I guess it would be if Philly loses, Minnesota would be a slight favorite

05:19in Tampa, and then they would be a favorite if they hosted Washington, but Herbert is

05:23a favorite in this round of a tick of a bigger margin, and I don't think Herbert's number,

05:30if they win and play Kansas City, is going to be, in terms of a spread, I mean, the number's

05:37going to be, what, 3 1⁄2?

05:38Maybe 4?

05:39It's not going to be out of bounds.

05:41At 17 to 1, I'm surprised at how long the Justin Herbert number is.

05:46No, it is, but think about the road, and potentially a matchup in Arrowhead if they get there,

05:51I mean, that's, DMO was a lower scoring game, what, 16-14 last time they played, or 19-17.

05:59I'll take a different approach.

06:01Baker at 10 to 1.

06:02Now, I do believe Washington steps up.

06:0550 1⁄2 is the total, but you're talking about a guy and a team that beat Detroit and

06:10beat Philly this year, right?

06:12Now, granted, I understand that Philly team was a little banged up when they played, but

06:18they pushed tempo as well as anybody, and Baker is as hot as anybody in terms of throwing

06:24the football, so again, they're going to throw it, you know, if they face off against Detroit.

06:29They're going to have to throw it against Philly, and he had success already, so why

06:33not back him at 10 to 1 as that lottery type of ticket, assuming they get through Washington.

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