Smylie Kaufman Previews the 2025 U.S. Open Odds Market

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00:00So, the odds board for the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont,

00:06Scottie Scheffler, plus 410, Rory McIlroy, 10-1,

00:10Xander Schauffele, 11-1, Jon Rahm, 12-1, Bryson, 12-1.

00:15This is the only board in which he appears in that top six list

00:19coming off his 2023 win at Pioneers No. 2,

00:22or I mean 2024 win, I'm sorry, at Pioneers No. 2,

00:25and Ludwig Oberg at 16-1.

00:28Those are your top six there.

00:30Ooh, I didn't play good.

00:34The cut was six over.

00:37I shot, I think it's a par 70.

00:39I shot 77-76.

00:42That place does not seem easy.

00:44Famously, it's not.

00:47Famously for those who are trying to kind of conjure an image.

00:50Yeah, I mean, this is, I'd say,

00:54Smiley, disagree with me if you think I'm wrong here.

00:56Oakmont, most famous for those church pew bunkers, right?

00:59That's a lasting image a lot of people see

01:01when they think of this course.

01:03It's the church pew bunkers on the third hole.

01:06They are on the left side of three

01:09and then also on the left side of four, par five.

01:12So those church pew bunkers,

01:14I don't remember if there's any more on the rest of the golf course,

01:17but Oakmont is the course that if the U.S. Open

01:22ever had an issue with one of their venues,

01:24Oakmont is always ready to host because it's always U.S. Open ready.

01:27And it's the most ridiculous hard golf course you'll ever play.

01:31You got to drive it good.

01:33The greens are insane.

01:37Some of the greens are too much, in my opinion.

01:40And the ones that are too much, this is where I think,

01:43I believe when I make my pick for this event,

01:48I'll probably side for a guy that fades the golf ball

01:51because I think the greens that are too ridiculous

01:53tilt this way right to left.

01:55And so obviously that's a fader favors a guy who can,

01:59you know, curve something into that slope, but.

02:02Ridiculous hard golf course.

02:05And should I should I play the U.S.

02:08Open tees and we go on a scouting trip?

02:09And what do you think I will shoot at this course from the U.S.

02:13Open tees?

02:14You wouldn't.

02:15I don't think I'd break 100 to be honest.

02:17You should in the 90s.

02:19You think so?

02:20Yeah, so would I.

02:21I don't know that we're allowed to do any sort of a video project at Oakmont,

02:31but I can guarantee you that if we do get the chance to do the scouting trip,

02:34we'll do our,

02:35we'll do our best if it doesn't offend the membership to play the U.S.

02:38Open tees and give you the full report as to how he did ahead of the U.S.

02:42Open.

02:43I'm very much looking forward to this now.

02:44So amongst that,

02:46do you like someone knowing what we know about the course and it's

02:50difficulty?

02:51Do you like, again,

02:52from our usual suspects list of six plus the other guy that is not in that

02:57top six on this list,

02:58but it appears in the other three is Colin Morikawa at 21,

03:01also at 21,

03:02Victor Hovland.

03:03Do you like someone from that list or you like someone beyond?

03:06I,

03:07I really,

03:08I,

03:09I,

03:10I mean,

03:11Xander's record at U.S.

03:12Opens is just ridiculous.

03:13If you go and look at it,

03:14it's like top 10 of his last eight years has yet to win one.

03:19So Xander's a guy that would be an obvious pick,

03:21but I really can't stop or I can't get this out of my brain.

03:26It's John Rahm.

03:27I just feel like John Rahm at this golf course to me,

03:31it's,

03:32it's like a,

03:33it seems like it's going to be a match made in heaven.

03:35Just his ability to fade the golf ball into some of these really difficult,

03:40challenging greens.

03:41He drives it long and straight.

03:42Rahm to me is,

03:44is a player at this course,

03:46you know,

03:47Dustin Johnson,

03:48at this place back in 16.

03:50So I,

03:51I,

03:52I just,

03:53I keep thinking about wherever Rahm,

03:55I don't know what Rahm's odds are,

03:57but to me,

03:58one.

03:59Yeah.

04:00Which is the,

04:01the,

04:02the fourth shortest and tied with Bryson 12 to one.

04:04Yeah.

04:05I mean,

04:06I know this is it's,

04:07it's early.

04:08So a lot of these are going to feel chalky when we're talking about

04:10them,

04:11but I,

04:12I just,

04:13you know,

04:14more so than any of these majors,

04:15we know the U S open is a grueling,

04:18demanding precision execution test.

04:21Right.

04:22On every single shot you hit in,

04:25in this major.

04:26And so to me,

04:27and we were talking a few months ago about the,

04:29I think it was gold digest that did the,

04:31the stat profiles of the webs of what everyone does.

04:34Well,

04:35and Xander was the only guy that had all five tools.

04:38And to me,

04:39it's,

04:40I know that's a little chalky,

04:41but to me,

04:42it's like,

04:43he is the guy that if you're telling me,

04:45you have to hit it straight on every single shot,

04:48you know,

04:49off the T and,

04:50and with approach shots,

04:52and you have to be a very solid putter on difficult greens.

04:55That to me is where I think Xander gets his third major of his

04:58career.

04:59Just because it,

05:00of,

05:01of how demanding and exacting Oakmont is going to be as a test

05:04of golf.

05:05Okay.

05:06I think.

05:07Yeah.

05:08So I got Scotty at the masters.

05:10I've got JT at quail at the PGA.

05:13And I've got Xander at Oakmont and we're going to wait for

05:16Smiley's.

05:17Okay.

05:18I'll get these pics.

05:19I'll catch up with,

05:20I'll catch up with you here.

05:21So for the masters,

05:22I'm going to go with a.

05:25I'm going to go with the first time winner and would be go bird.

05:27Oh,

05:28I love that.

05:30Which is what also is interesting to the last time there hasn't

05:34been a first time winner in a major championship was 2014.

05:38So it,

05:39that,

05:40that trend from 2015 and on,

05:42there's been a first time winner.

05:44I'm going to go with Ludwig Oberg.

05:46I think his experience last year is going to help him this year.

05:50And Hey,

05:51if it went for a pulled six iron on the 11th hole,

05:54who knows what happens.

05:55And guess what?

05:56He's not going to do on Sunday this year.

05:57If he has the opportunity pulled in that dang pond.

06:00So give me Ludwig there.

06:02Although Scotty,

06:03like any of these picks,

06:04I'm like,

06:05I'd like to take Scotty for them all.

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