'Public outrage' against government growing beyond Georgia's EU path, analyst says

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00:00Let's turn to Georgia now the prime minister there is vowing to eradicate his words the country's liberal fascist opposition his words again

00:07Escalating the government's bitter campaign against its rivals as mass pro-eu protests enter a second week

00:13He believes he's been rocked by turmoil since the governing georgian dream party which critics accuse of creeping

00:19Authoritarianism and of leaving the country back into russia's orbit claimed victory in a disputed election in october

00:25The government said last thursday it would suspend eu membership talks until

00:302028 now this sparked uproar and the scenes were seeing now a fresh wave of demonstrations that have been met with a heavy-handed response

00:38From the authorities, let's get the analysis and bring in tinnitin jeopardy

00:42It's a who's the eurasia political risk analyst at the eurasia group joining us live from tbilisi tinnitin

00:48Thanks for being with us. I'm wondering what your take is on the situation right now

00:52Thank you very much mark

00:54it's great to see you again against the backdrop of this renewed wave of mass protests and as you've seen the violent dispersal of

01:02Demonstrators by law enforcement across the country not just in tbilisi

01:05The georgian police have also raided several offices and homes of non-governmental organizations and opposition coalitions

01:12They've even arrested several opposition leaders over the past day

01:16But what is particularly notable mark about the ongoing protest is that they've spread far beyond

01:23tbilisi and a few other major cities

01:26Reaching almost every corner of the country which was really not the case in the past months and they're being organized at the grassroots

01:34Level as you may recall the opposition leaders struggled to capitalize on post-election momentum

01:40You and I discussed this in the days after the the election and what we're witnessing today is a nationwide movement

01:47Without top-down leadership it truly embodies a grassroots movement

01:51Which the country has so needed over the past years just to clarify on that one

01:56So very often in these kind of situations from the outside. It looks like it's just a kind of urban

02:01I'll say elite that probably is not the correct word to use but an urban movement or something going towards their ends

02:07You're saying this is something that is far broader

02:10Absolutely mark and actually you you use the word that I am also reluctant to use in these contexts

02:17But in many ways the movements that we saw in the prior months were more of an elite movement

02:23I'm including a lot of the opposition

02:26Statements and narratives that we're targeting the elites much more so than the broader

02:31population that is less perhaps concerned about

02:36Georgia's EU membership, although it is something that they think about it

02:39But it's not top of mind because they were mostly concerned about the bread-and-butter issues

02:44Which the opposition in many ways failed to address but now what we're seeing is this public outrage?

02:51Beyond just Georgia's EU path, which is definitely very important

02:57but what is far more important is that the country is

03:00Essentially moving towards an

03:03Authoritarian not just an autocratic regime and that is something that the Georgians have been standing up against for many many decades

03:11Including during the late Soviet era now tenets and in that context

03:14Well, the prime minister Iraq Lee Koba kids it says to or rather vows to eradicate

03:20Opposition how sinister is that threatened in these circumstances?

03:25well, of course he is trying to

03:28Not just to make these statements but to actually act on these words and it is very very concerning

03:35Obviously by no means as anyone trying to diminish the terrible negative impact that the the violent dispersal not just of the protest

03:43Protesters but also of the crackdown on the opposition leaders has had in terms of the effect on the public

03:51but what is far more concerning is that

03:54The masks are completely off mark at this point

03:59they have the Georgian dream leaders have completely given up on any pretense of

04:06Essentially just pretending which is what they were doing the last few months of still abiding by certain

04:11Euro-Atlantic aspirations of Georgia and at the same time trying to push their authoritarian rule and push it on to the public

04:18Now it seems that they no longer are hiding behind the Georgian Constitution and in fact, they've gone directly against the Constitution

04:28So that situation as it sounds and we had the president of Georgia Salome Zorovesh really

04:33Tell us in this studio that there was a real commitment from the country to move towards EU membership

04:39It's what the people wanted and this was at the time of the election on October

04:43She said the things have been twisted in some way and now we're seeing the fruits of that right now

04:48I'm wondering to know how long the people can continue to keep up this kind of protest because

04:54protesting in this way out in the streets in the cold it wears people down is is that the

05:02Appetite to keep doing that. Is that the the the motivation the the anger to keep doing that?

05:08Mark, that is a million-dollar question for this movement to maintain its momentum

05:14I think here the role of the international community will be crucial beyond mere words of criticism and condemnation

05:21Some media reports have suggested that Brussels has been considering the possibility of suspending its visa facilitation agreement

05:28Which currently allows Georgian citizens to travel visa free to EU countries now the risk with this approach

05:35Is that it may actually backfire as the Georgian dream could very easily

05:40Frame this action to the public to their own public as Europe essentially turning against the Georgian people

05:47punishing Georgian citizens who have taken to the streets for this very action rather than the government that has sharply moved away from its

05:54Euro-atlantic orientation, but contrary to what we may have anticipated just a few months ago

06:00I would say not just a few months, but even a few weeks

06:02It's now more than likely that if the regime does collapse

06:06It won't necessarily be due to the external factors and I just want to underline here that by no means am I

06:13trying to minimize the importance of international response and reaction, but instead it'll be the internal processes and the

06:21disintegration of institutions that have always been very weak in Georgia post-soviet collapse and

06:27Systems from within that could drive such an outcome and this is something that the public of course cannot ignore

06:34The stakes are incredibly high not only for Georgia, but I would argue also for the wider region

06:40Well, of course, it's still too early to make any definitive predictions

06:45We can already say with certainty that the outcome of these events will shape the geopolitical landscape in the South Caucasus

06:52Not just for Georgia, but also the broader Eurasian region in the years to come. So it is extremely difficult

06:59It is extremely critical that the West stand by the Georgian people side

07:04because at the end of the day the many people that I'm seeing on your screen right now that are in my

07:09native hometown of Tbilisi and

07:11Beyond they are not just fighting for their own European future, but also for the democratic future of the broader region

07:19Tinnitin Japaridze, Eurasian political risk analyst at the Eurasia Center

07:24Thank you for joining us here and giving us your analysis of the situation and that essential context

07:29We need to truly understand the story. Tinnitin. Thank you for joining us here on France 24

07:32Thank you. Thank you very much indeed

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