Georgia braces for vote seen as choice between Russia, EU

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00:00set to pit a union of pro-western opposition forces against a ruling

00:04party accused of democratic backsliding and shifting towards Russia.

00:09Voters in Georgia go to the polls this Saturday as Brussels warns that the

00:14elections will be crucial for the country's long-held aspirations to join

00:18the EU. To discuss we're joined now by geopolitics and security expert

00:24Tinetin Djaparidze. Thank you so much for joining us from the Eurasia group.

00:29Firstly, these elections are being billed as a crucial test for Georgia.

00:35Russia looms large of course. Tell us what's at stake?

00:39Thank you very much Sharon, good to be with you.

00:42Well above all Sharon, the future of Georgia is at stake on October 26th and

00:46its aftermath. I honestly do not recall a Georgian election that was not

00:51described as pivotal and critical for the country's continued progress and

00:55development. But now more than ever we see that the choice is very clear.

01:01Will Georgia become a Russian satellite or can the pro-European movement that is the

01:06only answer for Georgia's future prevail?

01:09And what are the polls suggesting at this point?

01:11What way is it going to go do you think?

01:14Well the polls are really very much all over the place Sharon because on the one hand we see

01:18polls that are in many ways pushed forward and perhaps even sponsored by the government and

01:25they tell us that the government is going to enjoy another landslide win. But then on the other hand

01:30the more independent pollsters are telling us something entirely different. We're actually

01:36seeing that it's going to be a bit of a toss-up because it's very difficult right now to tell

01:41whether the Georgian dream will be able to actually, if we're being completely honest,

01:46steal the election because without rigging the election results they would not be able to win

01:51this election in a free and transparent environment. On the other hand it'll be very interesting to see

01:57whether the opposition coalitions will be able to truly come together and convince the population

02:03that they are the answer in helping Georgians to come to what they think is the only solution and

02:10that is the next stop and that is Europe.

02:13And what have some of the main concerns been for those voters? There have been concerns about

02:18Russian disinformation and interference for example, also conspiracy theories have featured

02:24in the campaign as well. Yes very much so. We have seen a lot of Russian disinformation,

02:31a lot of Russian influence not just in the pre-election period but in the years prior if

02:37we're being completely transparent. I mean even at times when we see the Georgian dreams narratives

02:44it is absolutely absurd how they tend to copy what Moscow has been saying but instead of saying

02:51it in Russian they say the same thing in Georgian. So what we're going to see in the coming days is

02:58this deepened polarization which has become inevitable. It has permeated every area of one's

03:05sort of existence in Georgia. Civil society, journalists who are unable to do their jobs,

03:11people who are genuinely concerned about going to the polls and casting their vote for the

03:17non-state actor for the opposition. They are genuinely concerned especially those people who

03:23are in their rural areas. They're concerned that they're going to lose their jobs and worse yet

03:29that they're going to endanger the safety of their family members. That is a real concern

03:35that very much reminds me of Russia around 2011-2012 when Russia's fate was also being decided

03:42and we know very well how that has ended and many Georgians are concerned that we're going to see

03:47something very similar. Georgia becoming another Belarus for example. That is a very very serious

03:54risk. And one more thing that I will add is in terms of what is part of the messaging. Now on

04:01the one hand we see this pro-European, pro-EU message that has of course had a lot of success

04:08with those in the major cities including in the capital Tbilisi. But then on the other hand there

04:14are other areas such as economic needs, economic grievances, the bread and butter issues that I

04:21think neither of the sides are necessarily responding to the way they should be because

04:27at the moment the opposition's messaging is very much aimed at the major cities throughout Georgia.

04:33And on the other hand we see the Georgian dream that is capitalizing on its continued support

04:40in the various regions of Georgia in the rural parts of the country. So it remains to be seen

04:46which of the two will end up actually tipping to one side or the other. At the moment I think it's

04:52a very very very close call and it's not so much on the 26th of October Sharon that we're going to

04:58decide the fate of the country but more so I think in the days after the election when we see

05:05what unfolds and how it unfolds. Yes because there are fears in some circles that the ruling party

05:10will try to stay in power regardless of the results. Exactly and that is a major concern.

05:17Mass demonstrations and possibly the risk of violence will be inevitable I think because what

05:22we saw in May of this year was just a teaser of what's to come. But most importantly I hope that

05:28we can avoid mass escalation if the government pulls all the stops and cracks down on protesters

05:33with Moscow's support. What worries me is Tbilisi calling Moscow and actually asking them to to do

05:40what they pledged they would do and that is to stand by the Georgian dream. We cannot rule anything

05:45out because as far as the Georgian dream is concerned they truly believe at their core that

05:50this is their final battle to stay in power no matter what even if that means going against the

05:55will of their own people, the Georgian people, that 12 years ago many of them brought them into power.

06:02A pivotal vote then as you say Tinetin this weekend. Thank you so much for joining us.

06:06We'll have to leave it there for now. That is Tinetin Japaridze from the Eurasia Group.

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