Russian interference did not represent 'critical mass' in Moldova vote, expert says

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00:00Let's now move to the situation in Moldova. People there voting by a wafer-thin majority

00:06in favor of securing the country's path towards membership of the European Union.

00:11This followed a ballot that nearly caused a major setback for the pro-Western president,

00:15Maia Sandu, who's accusing criminal groups of trying to undermine the vote. Let's bring in

00:20our correspondent, Maria Gert-Nikolescu, who's in the capital of Moldova, Cisnau. Maria, great to

00:26see you. Give us the latest there on this result, which turned out to be a lot closer

00:32than many would have predicted. A very tight vote indeed. The referendum passed with just

00:3950.3% of yes votes. Less than 12,000 ballots made the difference here. The Moldovan diaspora

00:47massively voted in favor of the referendum with over 75% of yes votes, which helped tip the balance

00:56and ultimately secure a victory for the pro-European camp. This, however, shows how divided

01:03the country remains regarding the European Union, and Moldovan authorities are saying that this

01:10tight result could also be partially linked, at least, to foreign interference and voter corruption.

01:18Earlier today, Maia Sandu said that 300,000 votes had been bought. She also spoke of foreign

01:24interference and on an attack on Moldova's democracy. In October, prosecutors had already

01:31revealed that 15 million euros were spent through Russian banks in an electoral corruption scheme.

01:38On Monday, the Kremlin, however, asked for proof for what it called grave accusations.

01:44But the political battle is not over yet here in Moldova. In two weeks,

01:49we'll see the second round of the presidential elections and current president Maia Sandu will

01:56face the socialist candidate Alexander Stoyanoglou. So, in many ways, Maria,

02:01is the issue of the EU very much a kind of, if you like, a judgment of Sandu and her leadership?

02:09Well, she's made European integration the main topic of her mandate, but also of her

02:14re-election campaign. So, there are very high chances that in the second round of

02:19the presidential election, those who have voted yes in the EU referendum will also vote

02:24in favor of Maia Sandu. This is also one of the arguments of the opposition parties and candidates

02:32saying that she's used the referendum to basically manipulate voters into re-electing her. But

02:40her response to that is that she actually needs this legitimacy. She needs to show that

02:46the population in Moldova is in favor of EU integration so that she can move on with

02:51negotiations in Brussels. Negotiations have already started earlier this year,

02:56and she's very much intent, now that the referendum has passed, on continuing these negotiations.

03:02The Moldovan EU aspirations will also be enshrined into the constitution,

03:07which will make it more difficult for potential future governments to derail it from this path.

03:16We'll have to see how things play out politically. She's likely to face continuous political

03:24opposition for the EU integration, and we'll see that Russian interference is also expected

03:31to continue as elections are planned next year as well, parliamentary elections.

03:37Indeed, President Sandu not mincing her words in saying that she believes that Russia is

03:44responsible for that. I wonder just quickly, Maria, can you tell us about the sort of the

03:48feeling among the people? You know, you're there, you talk to people, you listen to what they're

03:53saying. How do they feel about this? It strikes from the outside, it seems like the country is

04:00really split. Yes, the results of the referendum have shown how split and divided the country is

04:08on this issue surrounding EU integration. For those who were in favour of EU integration,

04:14well, the victory is difficult to be celebrated in full swing, because they were expecting,

04:20obviously, a much more favourable result for the referendum. Maya Sandu's opponents, however,

04:27are celebrating a victory because they think that this tight result shows how little backing

04:35she actually has for EU integration. But the second round of the presidential election will

04:41give us further information on what the people in Moldova actually want. And let's not forget

04:46that this comes amid Russian interference in Moldova's politics. So we'll also have to see

04:55investigations coming out on this topic as we move forward. Maria Niculescu, please keep us

05:01across all developments. Great speaking to you. Thank you very much indeed, Maria,

05:05for joining us. Let's broaden our analysis and bring in now Clara Voluntiru, who's from the

05:12German Marshall Fund of the United States, joining us from Bucharest, Romania. Clara,

05:16thanks for being with us. We've heard from our correspondent about President Sandu talking about

05:22votes being bought, some 300,000 votes being bought. Now, would 300,000 votes sway the

05:28election or not? I don't know. But the very fact that that is going on is alarming, isn't it?

05:36Of course it is. And clientelistic interference into elections has been a decades, if not

05:42centuries old phenomenon that has distorted electoral outcomes and electoral integrity,

05:47not just in the Republic of Moldova, but all across the eastern periphery of the European

05:52Union and inside the European Union, has been a very important battle for all of us fighting in

05:58the belief of democratic values. Russian interference has indeed played many tactics

06:05in distorting electoral processes, from propaganda on social networks to this very

06:12human form of peer-to-peer clientelistic networks. So the 300,000 votes that were bought,

06:20or let's say manipulated, are essentially a network of clientelistic distribution of money

06:27coming in from Shor, who is residing outside of the Republic of Moldova in the Russian

06:34territory. And so it is a very novel, entrepreneurial even, we might say,

06:39form of clientelistic interference into the electoral process. But with that being said,

06:46I don't think that was a critical mass in these elections. That target electorate was already

06:53pro-Russian. So we need to understand other variables in play in order to understand where

06:59these elections are heading. So it may not have been as important as perhaps I'm thinking when

07:04I'm hearing those words coming from our correspondent. I'm also thinking about

07:07what Elon Musk is doing in the United States in terms of paying people to vote for Donald Trump.

07:12It seems to me that comes from the same stable. It may be a different rider of the horse in some

07:17way, shape or form. But let's not talk about that. Let's get back to Moldova and the important issue

07:22at hand here, because Maya Sandu wants to make membership of the EU very much part and parcel

07:27of what Moldova does going forward. Is that now at risk? No, I think the tactical option to put

07:36forward a referendum now was the right call, given that the interferences and popular

07:43disenchantment might still grow. I refer to popular disenchantment because we have 42 percent of the

07:51population in Moldova still on the fence, still wanting good relations with the European Union

07:57and good relations with Russia, mostly out of fear of aggression. And that population, that

08:04majority in the middle, can be very easily swayed by contextual factors. The past government is

08:11footing the bill for a series of unpopular measures and contextual factors, from rising

08:17energy bills, energy prices because of the war in Ukraine, to, let's say, a scale down of social

08:24programs given the more pro-liberal, pro-market approach of the past government. I think the one

08:31mistake that this referendum or the president has done in calling up this referendum now was that

08:37there wasn't a broader coalition of political forces supporting the EU agenda. And it ended up

08:43being a sole proponent of the European agenda in her person and her party. And she needs more

08:52allies. And I think going into the next parliamentary elections next year, that will be the

08:58main challenge, to find coalition partners to continue to rule in a pro-European, pro-Western

09:05mandate. Clara Voluntiru of the German Marshal Fund of the United States, thank you for sharing

09:11your analysis with us here on France 24. We really appreciate your time. Thank you very much indeed.

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