‘Nika’ to exit PAR within 24 hours; 2 more cyclones expected

Manila Bulletin

After Typhoon “Nika” (international name: Toraji), the next tropical cyclones to watch are “Ofel” and “Pepito.”  In a press conference on Monday, Nov. 11, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Assistant Weather Services Chief Chris Perez said Nika is expected to leave the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) by Tuesday morning or afternoon, Nov. 12.  READ: https://mb.com.ph/2024/11/11/parade-of-storms  Subscribe to the Manila Bulletin Online channel! - https://www.youtube.com/TheManilaBulletin  Visit our website at http://mb.com.ph Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/manilabulletin  Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/manila_bulletin Instagram: https://instagram.com/manilabulletin Tiktok: https://www.tiktok.com/@manilabulletin  #ManilaBulletinOnline #ManilaBulletin #LatestNews

Transcript

00:00Based on the latest data that we collected, we saw that its center is in the vicinity of Besao Mountain Province.

00:09So, its center is in the Cordillera Administrative Region.

00:12And the intensity of the storm, as you can see, is almost felt in the entire northern and central zone.

00:18It is still felt.

00:20And its maximum sustained winds are still strong.

00:23It is still reaching 120 km per hour near the center and a gas nest of 200 km per hour.

00:30Its movement is west-northwest at a speed of 25 km per hour.

00:34So, based on the latest track that we released, we expect that today, it will really pass by

00:42or it will traverse the landmass of the northern and central zone.

00:45And then, eventually, it will also reach the coastal waters of Ilocos Sur.

00:51This evening or tonight.

00:53So, it will continue to move west-northwestward over the West Philippine Sea

00:57and, eventually, it will exit our area of responsibility by tomorrow.

01:02So, tomorrow, Sinica will leave our PAR.

01:07In addition, we are still at signal number 4 in Kalinga, Mountain Province, northern portion of Ifugao,

01:14central and southern portion of Abra, northern and central portions of Ilocos Sur.

01:20So, here, our signal number 4 is concentrated.

01:23While signal number 3 in these areas, in the northern portion of Quirino,

01:29northeastern portion of Nueva Vizcaya, central portion of Isabela, southwestern portion of Cagayan,

01:36rest of Abra, southern portion of Vapayaw, rest of Ifugao, northern portion of Binguet,

01:42southern portion of Ilocos Norte, and the remaining portion of Ilocos Sur.

01:47Those are the areas where we have orange shade.

01:50So, here, our signal number 3 is also concentrated.

01:53It means that the wind is still strong and we can still experience it in the next few hours.

02:02While signal number 2 now, in the northwestern and eastern portions of Cagayan,

02:07rest of Nueva Vizcaya, rest of Isabela, rest of Quirino, rest of Apayaw,

02:13remaining portion of Binguet, remaining portion of Ilocos Norte, La Union,

02:18northeastern portion of Pagasinan, northern and central portion of Aurora,

02:23and northern portion of Nueva Ecija.

02:26That is signal number 2.

02:28While signal number 1 is still high, it means that it is still possible for wind to blow,

02:36here in Babuyan Islands, rest of mainland Cagayan, which is this one,

02:42and rest of Pangasinan, rest of Aurora, rest of Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Pampanga,

02:49Tarlac, northern and central portions of Zambales, northeastern portion of Quezon,

02:54including the Polilio Islands.

02:56So, if we can see, northern Luzon, basically, northern Luzon and central Luzon

03:02tropical cyclone wind signal.

03:05So, the focus of this signal is the wind impact or the strength of the wind

03:12that our countrymen can experience there because of the typhoon Nika.

03:17Meanwhile, here are the places where even though there is no high signal,

03:22it is still possible to experience occasional wind gusts

03:26of the typhoon Nika, which is today possible in Batanes, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas,

03:34Dubang Island, Marinduque, Romblon, Masbatec, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur,

03:40even in Catanduanes.

03:42Tomorrow, it is still possible to experience gusts of wind in Ilocos Sur, La Union,

03:48Pangasinan, Batanes, Cagayan, along with Babuyan Islands, and even in Isabela.

03:54This is also important, our rainfall forecast.

03:58So, because of the traversal or the crossing of the typhoon Nika,

04:04it is still possible for intense torrential or high to almost no rainfall

04:11here in Apayao, Cagayan, Abra, Calinga, Mountain Province,

04:15Ifugao, Binguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, even in Aurora.

04:20So, it means that flooding is expected here, even if the landslides are possible

04:26because of the high to almost no rainfall.

04:31Then, we also have heavy to intense rainfall that is expected or forecast

04:36here in these areas, in Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, even in Isabela.

04:43So, it means that the rainfall is also likely here because it is also strong.

04:47Strong to intense rainfall is what our countrymen can experience.

04:52And then, moderate to heavy in Pangasinan, Tarlac, even in Nueva Ecija.

04:57It means that moderate to intense rainfall is what can be experienced here in these areas.

05:05So, in our gale warning, our gale warning is still high in the eastern coast of Cagayan,

05:09Isabela, Aurora, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union.

05:13So, there is a strict prohibition of flooding here in these areas

05:19because it is very dangerous.

05:21This is still because of the Sinica typhoon.

05:25And aside from the typhoon that we are currently experiencing,

05:31we are still monitoring outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

05:35And last time I saw it, it was 780 kilometers east of Guiwan, eastern Samar.

05:41It is categorized as a tropical depression now.

05:44Its maximum sustained winds is 55 kilometers per hour near the center.

05:48And its gustiness reaches 70 kilometers per hour.

05:52But we expect that in our projection,

05:55it is still possible for it to grow stronger in the coming days

05:58before it reaches our area, our landmass.

06:05We expect that tomorrow, it will enter our PAR or our Area of Responsibility.

06:10So, our advice is to monitor the updates that are expected.

06:15So, its movement as of today, west-northwestward at 20 kilometers per hour.

06:24Here in Luzon, this is where our dams are being monitored,

06:28like Magat, Agno Bicol, Agno, Ambuklao, Binga, and San Roque,

06:35which is where the storm is hitting Nica.

06:43And those are their locations, which is where our dams are.

06:49So, this is our dam update as of 4 p.m.

06:52First, I will look at our dams that are currently losing water,

06:58which is first, this Ambuklao Dam.

07:00Ambuklao has an elevation of 750.01 from 750.29 at 8 a.m.

07:10So, it has a deviation of 0.28 meters.

07:14So, it still has a 1.99 meter deviation from its normal height of 752.

07:22That's why the gate of Ambuklao is still open,

07:26which is one gate, 0.5 meters.

07:28It has a total discharge of 197.64 cubic meters per second.

07:34The water that Ambuklao is losing will be followed by Binga,

07:39which has an elevation of 571.18 at 4 a.m.

07:44It came from 572.86 at 8 a.m.

07:51So, it has a deviation of 1.68 meters.

07:55Its deviation from the normal height of 575 is 3.82.

08:00So, it still has two gates open,

08:04a total of two gates, 1.0 meters,

08:08and it has a total discharge of 303.21 cms.

08:14The water that Binga is losing will be followed by San Roque,

08:19which is the lowest, the most downstream of the three dams.

08:23So, its present elevation is 277.99.

08:29From 278.07, it has a deviation of 0.08 meters.

08:35So, its deviation from the normal height of 280 is 2.01,

08:41and it still has one gate, 0.5 meters,

08:45and it has a total discharge of 340.16 cms.

08:49This was opened at 12 a.m.

08:53And also, this is Magat.

08:56Its present elevation is 182.75 from 181.95.

09:01So, it still has an increase of 0.80,

09:05although it has one gate, one meter,

09:09because the Magat watershed was hit by heavy rain.

09:15So, our normal assessment of 1.90 meters was reached.

09:23So, even though it has one gate open,

09:27its rise is still continuous.

09:29The inflow is quite high,

09:31so we noticed that the level of Magat is still rising.

09:36And these are our other dams, like Angat.

09:40Its present elevation is 201.79,

09:44at 4 p.m., from 201.88.

09:47So, it has a deviation of 0.09.

09:51It is still quite far.

09:54Its mm of rain is 235,

09:58so it still needs a lot of rain to reach 210.

10:03And Pantabangan Dam, 209.52.

10:08This is rising, although it is still quite far.

10:13Its deviation is 11.48,

10:16compared to its normal high of 221.

10:20So, our assessment, the rainfall needed is still 900.

10:25So, it still needs a lot of rain.

10:27So far, we have nothing to worry about here at Pantabangan Dam.

10:37Just like our Ambuklao-Vingas-San Roque is open,

10:41we also issued a hydrological situation here at Agno River.

10:46This is number one, 24-hour validity.

10:50So, the issuance is tomorrow morning at 9 a.m.

10:55But this is Ambuklao-Vingas-San Roque.

10:58So, these are the areas likely to be affected

11:01by the dams that are disappearing.

11:03Even here in Ambuklao, where Ambuklao water flows,

11:06this is Barangay Ambuklao in Bukod, Benguet.

11:11We always advise them to be careful

11:15and to go to a higher place

11:17and not to go to the rivers.

11:19Just like what I said earlier,

11:21Ambuklao goes to Binga,

11:23this is the water of Barangay,

11:27which is downstream of Binga,

11:29this is Barangay Tinugdan,

11:31and Dalipirip in Bandang, Itugon, Benguet.

11:36And also, this is San Roque,

11:38this is the area downstream of Pangasinan.

11:41These are the areas or places

11:43that are affected by the water of San Roque disappearing,

11:46especially that they are increasing the gate opening

11:50because the inflow of water from Binga is quite strong.

11:54So, these are the areas in Barangay San Manuel,

11:56this is the area downstream of Pangasinan.

11:58San Manuel, San Nicolas, Asingan, Tayog,

12:02Santa Maria, Villasis, Rosales, Santo Tomas,

12:06Alcala, Bayambang, and Bautista.

12:09Just like what we always say,

12:11we should be careful

12:13and we should stay away from the rivers

12:16and we should go to safe places.

12:21And also, this Samagat River,

12:23we also issued a situation there

12:25and the news is 24 hours,

12:27so, the next issue is tomorrow.

12:30These are the barangays

12:32that are affected by the water of Magat disappearing.

12:35This is Alponso Lista,

12:37which is in Ibucao.

12:39And Ramon, San Mateo, Aurora,

12:42Cabatuan, Luna, Reina Mercedes,

12:45Borgos, Naguilian, and Gamo.

12:50And also, our river basin

12:54issued a flood warning

12:56or flood advisory number 1,

12:58so, the validity is also 24 hours.

13:01So, the next issue is tomorrow morning.

13:06And also, this is in Abra River Basin,

13:09which is also in Northern Luzon.

13:11So, this was hit by a car.

13:13So, we have a river basin there.

13:15So, we also gave our concerns

13:19to the advisory number 1

13:22here in Abra River Basin.

13:25And the present

13:28average basin rainfall,

13:3024 hours is light to moderate.

13:32So, the present is heavy to intense

13:35that the observed flood has already occurred.

13:38So, these are the watercourses

13:41likely to be affected.

13:42These are the Tinig River,

13:45Abra River, Lagbin River,

13:48other tributaries draining to

13:51Tinig River, Sot River, Biti River,

13:55Tablang River, Liges River,

13:57Buli River, Balacad River,

14:00Patagi River, Dagsian River,

14:04Laud River, Kadaklang River,

14:07and Ubog River.

14:08These are the rivers that will be affected

14:10or the ones that will have a high water level

14:14because of the heavy rainfall.

14:16And we issued a warning there.

14:19And our warning is

14:24strongly advised to take appropriate action.

14:27That is the advice we gave

14:29to Abra River Basin

14:31or to those affected by Abra River Basin.

14:35And also, the Cagayan River

14:37because the Magat,

14:40the Magat flood,

14:42will pass through Cagayan River Basin.

14:45So, the flood advisory issued a warning

14:48to the Cagayan River Basin

14:50to those who might be affected by the water

14:54to those who will be affected

14:57by the water caused by the Magat Dam.

15:00So, we always remind

15:02that we are not always leaving.

15:04We will be careful

15:06and go to safe places.

15:09And also, this is our advisory by region.

15:13These are our principal river basins.

15:16There are principal river basins

15:18that are small rivers

15:19so it can easily overflow

15:22and cause flooding.

15:24These are our issuance.

15:27The Cordillera Administrative Region,

15:29Region 1, Region 3,

15:33for appropriate action.

15:35Region 4A, Region 4B,

15:37necessary precautionary measures.

15:39And we already filed earlier.

15:42For now,

15:44Bicol Region and Region 8,

15:47Eastern Visayas.

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