• 3 weeks ago
As Typhoon “Marce” (international name: Yinxing) nears, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned that the critical period for northern Luzon will begin on Thursday afternoon, Nov. 7.

READ: https://mb.com.ph/2024/11/7/critical-hours-ahead-for-northern-luzon-as-typhoon-marce-nears

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Transcript
00:00So, it's a good thing that the typhoon Marseille is getting stronger as it continues to move
00:05near the extreme northern Luzon area.
00:07And earlier this morning, its center was located 115 kilometers away from the coast of Aparikagayan.
00:14The typhoon Marseille lasted for a long time.
00:16The wind speed reached up to 175 kilometers per hour,
00:20which is close to its center.
00:21And the eruption reached up to 215 kilometers per hour.
00:25So now it's moving in the direction of west-northwest
00:28at a speed of 10 kilometers per hour.
00:30So, we can see that the center is getting closer,
00:33but some parts of the northern Luzon area are already submerged
00:37due to the impact of the typhoon Marseille.
00:39That's the reason why the center is still far away.
00:42It's possible that the typhoon Marseille is experiencing not only rain,
00:45but also strong gusts of wind in some parts of the northern Luzon area.
00:50So, when did we expect the typhoon Marseille to move?
00:54So, for now, the critical is until tomorrow.
00:57Because, as we can see in our forecast track,
01:00it's possible that this afternoon, between 2 to 6 p.m.,
01:06it will either hit the northeastern part of Cagayan,
01:11in the Santa Ana area, or here in Kamiguin Island.
01:15So, that's what we can see as a possible landfall of the typhoon Marseille this afternoon.
01:20And then, it's expected that once it passes the mentioned area,
01:24it will possibly move towards Pakanluran and affect Apayaw and Ilocos Norte.
01:30It's a close approach of Apayaw and Ilocos Norte to these areas.
01:34Or it could be more on the south-west.
01:39The center could also hit Apayaw and Ilocos Norte.
01:44So, what are the areas that are good for potential landfall today?
01:49The northeastern part of Cagayan, Kamiguin Island, Apayaw, and Ilocos Norte.
01:56But generally, all the areas that have a warning signal
02:01should be prepared for the upcoming typhoon Marseille.
02:04We expect that once it passes the mentioned area,
02:09it will continue to move towards Pakanluran,
02:11and it's possible that our area of responsibility will move out tomorrow afternoon or tonight.
02:18What are the warning signals?
02:21Let's start with the warning signals or the forecasts of the typhoon Marseille
02:26or the impact of the typhoon Marseille, the strong winds.
02:29If we have Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal Number 4,
02:33it's expected that the strong winds there will be from 88 kmph to 184 kmph.
02:47The strong winds will be from 88 to 184 kmph.
02:53The northern portion of Cagayan, including Babuyan Island,
02:56northern portion of Apayaw, and Ilocos Norte,
02:59the area that is highlighted in red is the area that currently has a warning signal number 4.
03:05Meanwhile, the area that is highlighted in orange is the warning signal number 3.
03:10The area that is highlighted in orange is the Bandang Batanes area,
03:12the remaining portion of Cagayan, Apayaw, Ilocos Norte, and northern portion of Ilocos Sur.
03:21The area that is highlighted in yellow is the northern and central portion of Isabela,
03:27the remaining portion of Abra and Calinga,
03:30the entire mountain province, northern portion of Ipugao, northern portion of Benguet,
03:34the remaining portion of Ilocos Sur, and northern portion of La Union.
03:38For additional information on the municipalities that we mentioned,
03:44you can also check the Tropical Cyclone Bulletin on our website.
03:49There is a PDF file that you can download and you will see a list of municipalities
03:56that are included, for example, in the northern and central portion of Isabela.
04:00You can download that.
04:02And then lastly, Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal Number 1,
04:06the area that is highlighted in light blue is Pangasinan,
04:10remaining portion of La Union, remaining portion of Ipugao, remaining portion of Benguet and Isabela,
04:16Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, northern and central portion of Aurora,
04:20northern portion of Nueva Ecija, and northern portion of Batanes.
04:24So basically, when there is a warning signal,
04:27the warning signal is based on the strong wind that you can experience.
04:33So in areas that have warning signals number 4 to 2,
04:36the strong wind can knock down different types of buildings.
04:40It can knock down power poles.
04:43It can destroy some structures, houses, especially the construction of light materials.
04:50And aside from that, it can also cause waves,
04:53up to very high waves, around the warning signals.
04:57Meanwhile, in areas that have warning signal number 1,
04:59sometimes when the wind blows,
05:01even though sometimes there is no effect,
05:04but same as with the other areas that have warning signals,
05:07as much as possible,
05:08and we have been giving news about Tropical Cyclone Mars for a few days,
05:12hopefully you have been able to stockpile goods,
05:15goods for at least 24 to 48 hours,
05:18so that today until tomorrow,
05:20the critical day or time,
05:22as much as possible, we are just inside the house,
05:26waiting for updates,
05:27and continuing to consult with their respective LGUs,
05:31Local Government Units,
05:33and Local Disaster Risk Reduction Managing Officers,
05:36for the continued safety measures against Tropical Cyclone Mars.
05:42Meanwhile, aside from areas that have warning signals,
05:45where you can experience strong winds,
05:47there are also areas where there is no warning signal,
05:50but you can experience the occasional blowing of the wind.
05:52Today, here in Sambales, Bataan, and Polilo Island,
05:56tomorrow, in Batanes, Cagayan, along with Babuyan Island,
06:00Isabela, and the whole Ilocos region,
06:02on Saturday, Batanes, and Babuyan Island.
06:06So, that's what we will keep an eye on.
06:08Aside from areas that have warning signals,
06:10where you can experience strong winds,
06:12for example, this area of Batanes,
06:14you can also experience the occasional blowing of the wind.
06:19Now, what will be the effect,
06:21or the impact of Tropical Cyclone Mars,
06:23as it continues to approach our country?
06:26So, we will look at the color coding again,
06:28the areas highlighted in red,
06:30those are the more than 200 mm of rain,
06:33intense to torrential rains,
06:35that you can experience today in Cagayan and Apayao.
06:38If we say Cagayan, this Babuyan group is also included.
06:42Meanwhile, heavy to intense rains,
06:44here in Batanes,
06:46Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur, Isabela, Abra,
06:49and then, we have moderate to heavy rains
06:52in La Union, Calinga, Mountain Province,
06:54Benguet, and Ipugao.
06:56Today, we are expecting rain.
06:58Tomorrow, we will see,
07:00gradually, the stronger rains will shift
07:03here in Ilocos Norte,
07:05because in the track we showed,
07:07tomorrow, it is possible that it will be far away,
07:09or at least, it will have passed
07:11to the coast of Dulong-Hilagan, Luzon,
07:14the center.
07:15Meanwhile, heavy to intense rains
07:17in Ilocos Sur, Apayao, and Babuyan Island,
07:21moderate to heavy rains in Mainland Cagayan,
07:23Batanes, Calinga, La Union, Abra,
07:28and Mountain Province.
07:30So, our forecast, the significant amount of rains
07:32is up to two days only,
07:34because on the third day,
07:36on the coming Saturday,
07:38we expect that it is possible
07:40that it will be out of our area of responsibility.
07:44Now, what should we expect
07:46because of the rain we are expecting,
07:48especially in the northern zone area?
07:50The actual rains will be more
07:53in the highly elevated or mountainous areas.
07:58So, the rains,
08:01not only from the direct rain
08:05that falls in your area,
08:07but also from the water that flows
08:10from the mountain tops
08:11towards the waterways,
08:15for example, the rivers,
08:17towards the downstream community.
08:19So, the flood risk,
08:20not only in the low-lying areas,
08:22but also in the communities
08:24near the rivers,
08:27because the water level may rise
08:29due to the flow of water
08:31from some areas
08:32that have experienced more rains.
08:34So, your local government
08:36and local disaster risk reduction managers
08:38should identify
08:39if your area is flooded
08:42by water from other towns.
08:44So, if other towns have experienced
08:46more rains,
08:47it is possible that,
08:48even if the rainfall is minimal
08:50in your area,
08:51the level of your rivers will suddenly rise
08:53and flood the communities
08:56on the riverside.
08:58The risk of landslides is still there,
09:01especially if you have noticed
09:03that it has been raining
09:05for a few days
09:06in your areas near the mountains,
09:07because the land may be soft
09:09and the rainwater cannot be absorbed
09:11and the landslides may occur.
09:14So, hazard maps are available
09:17to your local government units
09:19and local DRO officials
09:20to be a guide.
09:22We will include the forecast rainfall
09:24and this is what we will use
09:26for our continuous disaster
09:27and preparedness
09:28for the upcoming Mars.
09:31Meanwhile,
09:32what will be the situation
09:34of the rivers?
09:35Earlier, we mentioned that
09:36there are areas
09:37that are under warning signals
09:38number 4, 3, 2, and 1.
09:40In the areas that we mentioned,
09:41all parts of the rivers there
09:43will no longer be allowed
09:44to avoid any type
09:46of maritime activities.
09:48All types of sea vehicles
09:50will no longer be allowed to cross.
09:52Gale warning is high
09:53here in the rivers
09:54around Batanes,
09:55in the area of Cagayan
09:57with Babuyan Island,
09:58Isabela,
09:59Ilocos Norte,
10:00and Ilocos Sur.
10:01And here in La Union,
10:03Pangasinan,
10:04northern part of Zambales,
10:05and northern part of Aurora.
10:07So, if we say that
10:08parts of the rivers
10:09have a high gale warning,
10:11it means that
10:12it is possible
10:13to experience
10:14waves up to
10:15very high sea conditions.
10:17It is not favorable
10:18for any type
10:19of sea vehicle
10:20to have that kind
10:21of sea condition.
10:22As far as possible,
10:23do not swim,
10:24do not cross.
10:25Let the Cyclone Marse
10:26pass first
10:27before crossing again
10:29our fishermen
10:31and other
10:32sea vehicles.
10:33As much as possible,
10:34let us monitor
10:35not only the
10:36Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
10:38up to the Cyclone Marse,
10:40not only the
10:41weather advisory
10:42about the rains
10:43brought by the Cyclone Marse,
10:44but also our gale warning
10:46for the sea conditions
10:48in the areas
10:49that are directly affected
10:50by the Cyclone Marse.
10:52Now, there is also
10:53what we call
10:54a storm surge,
10:55or the high waves
10:57that can pass
10:59coastal areas
11:00in places
11:01in the northern Luzon area.
11:03More than 3 meters
11:04of high waves
11:05can pass
11:06the northern coast of Cagayan
11:07and the northern coast
11:08of Ilocos Norte.
11:09The areas highlighted in red
11:10are the coastal communities
11:11of the provinces
11:12that we have mentioned.
11:13Around 2.1 to 3 meters
11:14can pass
11:15the Batanes area,
11:16the villages
11:17of the eastern coast
11:18of Cagayan,
11:19the western coast
11:20of Ilocos Norte
11:21and Ilocos Sur.
11:22Meanwhile,
11:231 to 2 meters
11:24can pass
11:25the coastal areas
11:26of Isabela
11:27and the northern La Union.
11:28So, for a few days
11:29we have been
11:30giving warnings
11:31not only about the rains,
11:32not only about the strong winds,
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