Mets vs. Phillies: A Detailed Analysis of Thursday's Matchup

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00:00But it's not necessarily an easy series for the Amazons, like it was in the sweep over

00:09the Nationals.

00:10The Mets at home tonight against the Phillies, the best team in baseball, the top team in

00:15the National League.

00:16Minus 138 is now the number on the FanDuel Sportsbook.

00:20Luis Severino, the home favorite against Taiwan Walker and the Phillies.

00:24Does it make sense to see New York as the home favorite tonight in Citi Field?

00:29It does, if we're just looking at the pitching matchup and not taking a look at much else

00:32here.

00:33Because Taiwan Walker, the one thing we know this year, he struggled mightily with the Philadelphia

00:36Phillies and has been injured here.

00:38The Met of the past, now the Philly here of the future.

00:42He did come in last week, I think it was like three innings scoreless in one of those long

00:45relief appearances, which gave the Philadelphia Phillies a chance to come back and win a baseball

00:48game.

00:49And they did.

00:50So credit him on that.

00:51But as a starting pitcher, you take a look at the last 30 days, even with those clean

00:54three innings.

00:55381 batters faced, a 286 iso and a 482 weighted on base percentage.

01:00If you look through his 351 batters that he's faced this year, it's a 248 iso and a 401

01:05weighted on base percentage.

01:06Maybe the only saving grace for Taiwan Walker is that Mets lineup that we project tonight

01:10hasn't hit right-handed pitching all that well.

01:12Winker, Alonzo and Vientos above average iso power numbers.

01:17Everybody else has been below the belt.

01:19But if we do take a look at that Phillies lineup today, starting to come out of that

01:22little funk they had on offense for a while, Luis Severino, decent pitcher struggling with

01:26left-handed batters, which puts you right in that Bryce Harper wheelhouse with a 268

01:30iso and a weighted on base percentage of 438.

01:33But as we talked about the Mets not hitting right-handed pitching well, the Phillies have

01:36done extremely well.

01:37If you remove Trey Turner, Alec Boehm and Bryson Scott, everybody's above average against

01:41right-handed pitching over the past month.

01:43So instead of me taking a side tonight, I think there's a legitimate chance, even though

01:47it's a playoff atmosphere, we can go over those eight runs and score close to double

01:51digits and cash this ticket.