Oregon vs Oregon State: Analysis of a Historic Rivalry

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00:00Lacey Guy, we start with Oregon and Oregon State. North of a three-score spread. Oregon

00:09has not covered a number so far this year. In fact, they have the second-worst cover

00:13percentage in the country, 27 points per game, missing out on the expectation. Only a fraudulent

00:20program in Lubbock, Texas, has a worst cover margin in the negatives. Yup, I said it. I

00:30said it. But Lacey, again, our focus is not on slandering each other. It's breaking down

00:34college football games on this Rivalry Saturday. 17.5 points spread in favor of the Ducks is

00:40a lofty expectation. And although Oregon State was gutted as the Pac-12 dissolved last year,

00:47they have been really good in Corvallis. This is the 128th all-time meeting between

00:53these two schools. It's the fifth-longest rivalry at the FBS level. What gives today

00:59in Corvallis? Well, something has to give because I expect Oregon to bounce back and

01:03at least get back to where we thought they would be at the start of the year. Shocked

01:07that they've been walking through the motions between Idaho and Boise State. We know the

01:12offense is still prolific with Dylan Gabriel completing 83 percent of his passes on the

01:17flip side for Oregon State. They want to run it. They're averaging well over 200 yards

01:22per game, ground-and-pound type of attack. I do feel their passing attack is a little

01:26bit limited with their quarterback, Javani McCoy. They need to stay in manageable third-down

01:31situations. I'm not betting this game, but if I had to, Oregon won this battle last year

01:36in the trenches, 31-7. They beat them up. I think they'd do it again. Might be a slow

01:42start, but in the second half, they'd pull away. And I'll just say this, Taj Brooks back

01:46for Texas Tech today with the arm injury. All right. Well, the Texas Tech love sneaks

01:51in. I got to say, I look at the Oregon State two games. Did the Big Ten take the wrong

01:56Oregon? I mean, they're running the football on 73 percent of their plays. They have the

02:00fourth-most rushing yards, fourth-most rushing attempts. I mean, it's also service academy-esque.

02:08And when you go up against the armies and the navies of the world, you don't want to

02:12lay this type of number. I can only look towards Oregon State as far as this spread goes here,

02:18checking in at over 17 and a half on the road as well. And that is, again, not even necessarily

02:24tied to the Oregon struggles that have been jumping off the page. It is more tied to what

02:30Oregon State looks like they want to be. It's hard to extend on a team that runs the

02:35football play after play after play, just completely burning the clock. I do want to

02:41ask a quick question to the both of you, though, as I mentioned, that my issue with Oregon

02:45initially, more than anything, was the price. They were booked as if they were up close

02:50to a Georgia and Ohio State level, completely shifted. For two games that they've won, that

02:57number is down to 11-1. Do you feel, I'll go to you, Joe, that that's an overreaction?

03:02Or that now Oregon, as I feel, is more appropriately tiered away from Georgia and Ohio State?

03:08I would say appropriately tiered until they face off against Ohio State in early October.

03:14I think right now the perception was, from a physicality standpoint, and Ben can bring

03:18this up as well, they had the most physical offense and defense aligned potentially heading

03:23into the Big Ten this year with the likes of Ohio State, maybe Michigan, right? They

03:27averaged a buck 84 last year, held opposing offenses to 102 rushing yards per game. All

03:32right, week one they struggle with an FCS opponent, Idaho, no big problem, all right?

03:37But then last week, when Austin Gentry tortures your defense again for over 100 yards and

03:43you go toe to toe, they needed an unbelievable drive at the end to just win that game. And

03:48Eugene was an amazing, you know, I think, perception gauge. So now, yeah, I think they

03:54are priced accordingly. And until they step up from the defensive side of the ball, guys,

03:59that's not going to change.

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