Oregon vs. UCLA Game Preview: Betting Odds & Insights

SportsGrid

Watch Oregon vs. UCLA Game Preview: Betting Odds & Insights - SportsGrid on Dailymotion

Transcript

00:0011 p.m. Eastern time. Kick tonight for the Ducks and the Bruins. In Westwood,

00:10actually in Pasadena, we go to the Rose Bowl. 25 and a half point number now,

00:14Lacey, as this line works even more in favor of the Ducks. 54 and a half, the

00:20total has dropped ever so slightly. UCLA, another loss last week against the

00:25ranked foe in LSU, but did cover the number as a three touchdown dog, winning

00:30or losing that game by only 17 points. Actually, both of these teams, one and two

00:36against the spread, but another large number in favor of Oregon. What do you

00:41expect to see tonight inside the Rose Bowl? If you look at the series, Oregon has

00:45won four straight by an average margin of victory of 10 and a half points per

00:48game, won this match up 45 to 30 last year, and we saw the UCLA cover the

00:53number against LSU. They moved the football in the first half, second half

00:57they got shut down, defense wore down, and Garrett Musmeyer picked them apart.

01:01Here's the factor in why I like Oregon here. They're giving up 295 passing yards

01:06per game. They have no pass rush whatsoever. They only have five sacks on

01:11the year, and more importantly, Tev, they're giving up 56% on third down

01:16conversions. Almost every six of ten attempts, they're allowing offenses to

01:21move the football, and oh, by the way, Dylan Gabriel is completing 84% of his

01:25passes. This is gonna be a bloodbath, I believe. Give me Oregon, and I'm playing the

01:30points. This is becoming, actually, maybe the game I'm going to be most invested

01:35in, because I today placed the bets on Dylan Gabriel to win the Heisman Trophy.

01:40For those who say, well, what happened to Ollie Gordon? I don't know, ask Dundee.

01:44Listen, one thing is, when you're betting in 2024, the ability to use free bets

01:49is very valuable, and it allows you to kind of get involved a few different

01:53ways within the Heisman Trophy. 11-1, 13-1 across a few books is where

01:57I've bet Dylan Gabriel. I really believe you have to get in before tonight. My

02:02favorite prop today is Dylan Gabriel over two and a half passing touchdowns.

02:05Curtis O'Rourke lit this team up, passing touchdowns. Nussbuss, Garrett

02:09Musmeyer gets three passing touchdowns as well. I know Gabriel has thrown

02:13exactly two in each of the first three games, but Oregon Stadium doesn't play

02:18much in the fourth quarter. Idaho was that outlier game, and then Boise, they

02:21had multiple return touchdowns that took opportunities away from him. I think

02:26tonight's the big breakout game. I think it's on the board. He goes for 350 and

02:29four, and they light up UCLA, and that'll shift this number, Ben, and if I just can

02:34quickly, then it's Michigan State, Friday, primetime, standalone. We know

02:38that's gonna be a huge one, and then it's the Ohio State game. If Gabriel can

02:43continue to play this well, win his next three games, I think he's as live as

02:48anyone to be the Heisman favorite following October 12th's slate. And listen,

02:51he was the preseason Heisman trophy favorite at a short number at plus 550,

02:57maybe not worth a bet, but one of the reasons I think you could expect Dylan

03:01Gabriel to at least statistically look pretty similar to Bo Nix is Will Stein

03:05is still there as the offensive coordinator in completion percentage. Bo

03:09Nix and Mac Jones, the two best single seasons in FBS history, 77.4 percent.

03:14Gabriel is at 84, albeit through three games, but off to a good start.

03:19I want to add this, though, because I've talked about, and I haven't changed my

03:21opinion on this, his statistical greatness, I think is gonna be a

03:25requirement to win that trophy. Gabriel's checking a box I wasn't

03:28anticipating. It's not just 84 percent completion percentage. He's 83

03:33plus in every single game this year. I don't care who you're playing. That's

03:37incredible. And by the way, it's not that he's not taking deep shots, right?

03:41This is a guy who's got multiple 50-plus yard passing touchdowns on the year, Ben.

03:44It's a great point you bring up, and it's a huge factor in me placing the Gabriel

03:48back. The numbers have been there. Oregon's performances have been a little

03:52bit lackluster, but to your point, getting exactly two passing touchdowns

03:56for Gabriel in all three games so far this year for Oregon. And UCLA, the worst

04:02passing defense in the Big Ten, allowing 295 yards per game. Concerning for me as

04:07well, for the Bruins, we talked about it last week against LSU. You thought maybe

04:12some congruency to Sean Foster, running backs coach, offensive scheme under Eric

04:17Biettami. Could they still establish the run? Anything but 60 yards per game on

04:23the ground, third worst nationally.

Category

Transcript

Recommended