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Report
Moscow sees one of Ukraine's largest drone attacks as fighting rages in Kursk and eastern Ukraine
FRANCE 24 English
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8/21/2024
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00:00
In other news, Ukraine launched the largest drone attack of the Russian capital overnight.
00:04
According to Russian authorities, 11 drones were destroyed over Moscow.
00:08
In total, 45 Ukrainian drones were reportedly downed across Russian territory.
00:14
The latest attacks come as the incursion into Kursk continues.
00:18
This Wednesday, the deputy head of Russia's Security Council says negotiations with Ukraine
00:23
are off the table.
00:25
For more, we can bring in Samuel Rahmani, Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services
00:29
Institute.
00:30
Thank you very much for joining us here on France 24.
00:33
Now, when Ukraine started this incursion into Kursk, one was under the impression that Kyiv
00:39
was doing this to get an upper hand in any negotiations.
00:42
But now with Moscow saying talks are off the table, where does it leave Ukraine?
00:47
Well, the Russians are playing a double game with the talks.
00:50
Obviously, you see hardliners like Dmitry Medvedev consistently brand the Ukrainian
00:55
government as an illegitimate regime that cannot be engaged in dialogue with.
00:59
But you also see other Russian officials in the past, like Dmitry Peshkov and even Vladimir
01:04
Putin, as recently as June 14th, talk about the prospect of talks.
01:07
I don't think we should take a single isolated statement for Dmitry Medvedev as a sign that
01:12
negotiations are impossible.
01:13
I think that Ukraine, if it can make more gains in Kursk, is probably increasing the
01:17
likelihood of future diplomacy.
01:19
How do Ukraine's NATO allies view this incursion?
01:25
Well, I think that it caught some NATO allies by surprise and probably some others less
01:28
by surprise.
01:29
I think that there was obviously some coordination with the United States on this, at least coming
01:34
from the statements from John Kirby.
01:36
But the Germans, for example, were somewhat left in the dark.
01:39
But even though the Germans may not have been consulted on very readily, they're also not
01:43
objecting to the use of their weaponry on Russian soil.
01:47
And it's very possible that when Ukraine was going to NATO countries and asking them
01:50
for permission to use their weapons inside Russia, they were talking about it in the
01:54
context of some kind of territorial incursion.
01:57
So even if they didn't know about Kursk specifically, they probably knew that Ukraine was going to
02:01
try to do some kind of a strike into Russia at some point.
02:04
But Samuel, I have a question.
02:05
I thought the weapons were allowed to be used for defensive purposes.
02:09
But is it considered defensive purposes if the weapons are being used on Russian territory?
02:15
Well, I think it can definitely be considered to be defensive.
02:17
It depends on how you define defensive.
02:19
And that might be defined very differently by Kiev and other NATO allies.
02:23
If you're talking about trying to derail the Russian war machine and firing drones on what
02:27
funds it, which is oil refineries, perfectly legitimate.
02:30
Of taking drones on metallurgy factories would be perfectly legitimate.
02:36
And Russia's occupying territory inside Ukraine with heavy fortifications that are hard to
02:40
trespass.
02:41
So deliberate your own territory.
02:44
The only way forward might be to do a land swap deal.
02:46
And Ukraine can frame that as defensive also.
02:49
And Russia's also striking across the border in Sumy, which is right across the border
02:53
from Kursk.
02:54
One could assume that Ukraine launched this incursion into Kursk before the winter sets
03:02
in, but also before the presidential election in the United States.
03:07
We don't know what's going to happen there.
03:08
Yes, Kamala Harris is up in certain polls.
03:12
But one never knows, right?
03:14
Is there much of an appetite for this conflict to continue much longer and be settled just
03:19
on the battlefield?
03:21
Well, I think that there probably is a concern in Ukraine, obviously, about what a Trump
03:26
presidency would mean.
03:27
And the planning for this would have likely occurred long before August the 6th.
03:31
So it probably was at a time when Trump was leading Joe Biden on average by about 5% in
03:35
the polls.
03:36
And he was talking about ending the war on day one.
03:40
So I think that this offensive may have been done with that in mind.
03:42
But regardless of who is president, there will very likely be some kind of a division
03:48
between Republicans in Congress and whoever's in the White House, even if Harris is there.
03:51
And the Ukrainians need to show that this war is winnable to get more American support.
03:56
And that's why they're doing this offensive, too.
03:58
Because I think over the past 18 months, when we saw the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive,
04:02
when we saw Russia make incremental gains in Donetsk, in places like Bakhmut and Chez
04:07
The feeling in Washington, amongst many, was that the war was not winnable.
04:10
And now Ukraine has changed that paradigm potentially.
04:14
It seems to have changed the paradigm for now.
04:16
I want to talk about something that's going to happen on Friday.
04:20
We're going to have the Indian prime minister who's going to be going to Kyiv.
04:23
His first visit, Narendra Modi's first visit to Ukraine since the conflict broke out.
04:28
The first visit by an Indian leader to the country in some decades.
04:31
Clearly, Modi will have to walk a very fine, tricky line, because on one hand, New Delhi
04:39
doesn't want to alienate Moscow.
04:43
I mean, Modi was just in Russia last month, hugging Vladimir Putin.
04:48
And he also doesn't want to leave Kyiv out in the cold.
04:53
What can we expect from that visit?
04:56
Well, I agree with you.
04:57
India has definitely got a very delicate line to thread.
05:00
Obviously, India views Russia as one of its historical, all-weather, trustworthy partners.
05:06
We've been in times when the United States has supported Pakistan, and China has been
05:10
aggressive towards it.
05:11
So it definitely does not want to do anything to blow its relationship with Russia.
05:15
What I think Modi will try to do when he visits Kyiv will be, number one, try to assuage
05:20
Ukrainian concerns about India's enabling of sanctions violations.
05:24
There's a lot of concerns in Kyiv, for example, right now about how European oil is simply
05:28
being refined in India, and that Russian oil may be being refined in India and then being
05:31
sold to Europe.
05:32
And then the second thing would be to show that it is a contributor to a broader peace
05:36
settlement and is a potential leader in terms of a global south peace solution that might
05:41
be different from the solutions that China has proposed, which Ukraine sees as giving
05:45
up too much territory, or South Africa and Africa has proposed, which have been criticized
05:49
in a similar fashion.
05:51
Yeah, New Delhi actually says that he will, Modi will be looking to discuss a resolution
05:57
to the conflict.
05:58
One wonders if that's going to be a diplomatic resolution, a negotiated resolution, given
06:02
that Moscow says it's not willing to talk.
06:04
We'll see how things span out.
06:06
Samuel, thank you very much for that.
06:07
Samuel Rahmani joining us today.
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