'IDF desperate for win, failed abysmally in Gaza: Hamas not eradicated, Hostages not returned'

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00:00Let's introduce our next guest, Dr. Ari Goldberg, joining us, an Israeli political commentator.

00:05Dr. Goldberg, thank you for being with us. We heard from Iris Marker about the situation

00:09regarding the flag day and obviously about the situation regarding the northern border.

00:15Can I put my first question to you, sir, regarding Benjamin Netanyahu?

00:18Because in many ways, Israel's Prime Minister seems to be caught in the horns of a dilemma

00:22right now. He has the peace deal, as proposed by Joe Biden last weekend, which is there,

00:28which if he accepts it or if he rejects it, he seems he's going to be on a loser either way,

00:35politically for himself.

00:38Well, let me try and redraw the dilemma in domestic political terms. Netanyahu now has

00:43to decide where he has a better chance of surviving the ordeal he's been undergoing

00:49for the last several years, his trial, the protests against him. He has two options here.

00:57One is his religious right power base. They are ideologically quite staunch. They are the ones

01:04who want to continue the war in Gaza until the complete eradication of Hamas. They're the ones

01:10who are calling for a war in Lebanon. They're the ones who are leading this march on Jerusalem Day,

01:15which is all provocation, all bullying, all violence. Netanyahu can choose them. They've

01:20been loyal, but they have their differences with him, and they don't trust him so much.

01:25He doesn't trust them so much. There's a real relationship there, but it's not based on

01:30ideological kinship. It's based on interests. They knew that Netanyahu would give them whatever

01:34they wanted in return for their political support. But Netanyahu can also choose to dismiss them.

01:40Netanyahu can also choose to sign the hostage deal. And if he signs the hostage deal, then he

01:46would be touching on a discrete truth of Israeli politics, which is that even the Israelis who are

01:52out in the streets protesting against him, they don't disagree with his policies. I'm using the

01:58double negative intentionally, because it's all quite discrete, and nobody really says this

02:03outright. They support his war. I'll go as far as saying that they support the genocide.

02:09And they have no reason to vote for pale epigons of Netanyahu, like Benny Gantz or anybody else.

02:15If they can get a prime minister who will have the courage to say, okay, I've fought this war for as

02:21long as I could. Now it's time to sign the hostage deal. He might actually stand a better chance

02:26in elections or even in some negotiated plea bargain for his trial before elections if he

02:32chooses to rely on the support of the broad, quiet Israeli center and not on the support of a settler

02:39vanguard. They make a lot of noise, a lot of provocation, but they are not a national movement.

02:45That's his dilemma. Let me come back to you in a second. I'll bring Iris back in, of course,

02:48in Jerusalem. I hope you heard what Dr. Goldberg was saying there. I'm keen to ask you,

02:53as you went to the march today, what was the sense you got from the people there,

02:57for or against Netanyahu? You know, they are focused on Jerusalem. They are focused on

03:06what they call the Temple Mount, what Palestinians call the Al-Aqsa Mosque. We

03:11heard from Ben-Gvir, one of their leaders, the controversial now minister, and he said,

03:18we have to show Hamas that we're taking back Jerusalem. So their focus is on Jerusalem

03:24rather than on Netanyahu. If they have to choose between Netanyahu and a centrist leader,

03:31or what they would call a leftist leader whom they despise, they would choose Netanyahu.

03:36The question is, can Netanyahu, as our guest was saying, can Netanyahu put up with them?

03:43Will it be in his long-term interests to do that? Will it be in his short-term interests to do that?

03:48Because things are becoming much more stressful here, both in the southern, both in Gaza and

03:53especially on the northern border. Iris, thank you. You set up my next question very nicely to

03:57Dr. Goldberg, who we're bringing back in now, Dr. Ori Goldberg, Israeli political commentator.

04:02Dr. Goldberg, you were saying about Netanyahu perhaps needing to come back to the centre.

04:06You were saying that was a possibility that he could choose to do if he so wanted to,

04:12to create a different kind of governance if possible. Is that likely to happen?

04:18Isn't he more or less in hock to the far right in his coalition?

04:23No, he isn't. They've had a very tumultuous relationship. He is not a right-wing ideologue.

04:29He has disappointed them before and they have left his governments before. This has all already

04:35happened. And as you say, things are heading towards the precipice. He has to decide where

04:41he wants to jump. It's true that there is a lot of dislike for Netanyahu in Israel generally.

04:47But then again, there is no real viable alternative so far. I think your correspondent was absolutely

04:53correct when she said that these right-wing hawks, they think of Netanyahu as a means to an

05:00end. They are not personally devoted to him. By the way, it is interesting to note that the ultra

05:06orthodox parties, their constituencies are right-wing, but they are very much personally

05:11devoted to Netanyahu. They have already announced that they will support a hostage deal. Again,

05:17there are domestic political considerations that have driven them to do so. But really,

05:22it's becoming a situation where one has to decide between ideology, hard fast, and

05:31broader domestic political considerations. Netanyahu is a very astute politician. He

05:38knows Israel very well. He represents a very powerful Israeli constituency. I think he's

05:44had enough of the religious right. And I think there's a very good chance he's going to flip on

05:49them. Let me bring Iris back in for a moment, Dr. Goldberg. Thank you very much indeed. Please

05:54stay with us. Iris, you're reacting there. Tell us what's on your mind. I'm interested. I haven't

05:59heard it put quite like that. I was hearing of deals. You know, his problem isn't whether he'll

06:05put up with the left or the centre of parties. It's whether they'll put up with him because

06:10they've all vowed not to sit with him. That's why he has this coalition. So I have heard people

06:15suggesting that a deal may be cooked up even out of Washington, which would say to the opposition

06:21leader, give Netanyahu a year in office and then he will bring you into power. He will remove the

06:28right wing parties. He'll have a year more. And that will be to the benefit of everyone. And there

06:32will then be a ceasefire deal and a hostage exchange, hopefully. But I haven't ever heard it

06:38put, as Dr. Goldberg is putting it, that actually Netanyahu is sick of the right, his right wing

06:43flank. So I'm very interested to hear that. You do feel something in the air. And I don't know

06:50if it's actually what's happening in northern Israel and the fact that Israel doesn't want to

06:54fight on two fronts. So there's a military imperative to solve or to at least halt the war

07:01in Gaza for some time, maybe for a very long time. I don't know if it's that, but you do feel

07:06something in the air here. That's for sure. I think, thank you, Iris. I think it was your gallant who spoke

07:11about the conflict being on seven fronts. He listed all the countries, including Samaria and

07:15Judea, i.e. the West Bank. So in a sense, is this what Netanyahu said today about being ready to

07:23respond in a very strong way in the north, Dr. Goldberg? Is this something that is inevitable?

07:28Is this inevitable that Israel is going to really push into southern Lebanon? No, I don't think it's

07:33inevitable at all. I think there is a major push that's coming from the military, from the IDF,

07:39which again is understandable when you think about the politics. The IDF is desperate for a

07:47win. The IDF has failed abysmally in Gaza. It has not accomplished its goals. Hamas has not been

07:53eradicated. The hostages have not been returned. All the IDF can do now is say, we told you this

07:58would take a long time. But the longer it takes, the more this begins to seem like perhaps the

08:04biggest military defeat Israel has ever experienced. And the IDF is so desperate now that

08:09Lebanon seems like a reprieve. That would be a real war. We could actually maneuver. We wouldn't

08:15be stuck in the alleys and byways of crowded cities. Let us show our mettle there. We will

08:21restore security. The problem is nobody's buying it after eight months. And also, there's this

08:26other thing you need to remember. Hezbollah has said, if the fire in Gaza stops, we will cease

08:33firing on our side. If that happens, the IDF, as eager as it might be to press on into Lebanon,

08:40the IDF would have absolutely no cause and no mandate to do that. Hezbollah has so far been

08:47very smart, very smart strategically, very smart in using its power and applying it. There's no

08:52reason to assume that at this stage, when Israel's defeat could finally become clear even to

08:59Israelis, Hezbollah will jump the gun. Dr. Ori Goldberg, thank you very much, Adi, for your analysis

09:05and Eris Makla. As always, it's a pleasure having you in the studio, even by Skype as we're doing it,

09:12to give us your insight as well. We really appreciate it. Thank you for shedding light

09:15on the story on which we need calm analysis and you both provided for us very greatly.

09:20Thank you very much, Adi. Dr. Ori Goldberg and our correspondent Eris Makla in Jerusalem.

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