Trump trial: What impact on the presidential campaign?

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00:00Now, Ketavan, the trial is sort of wrapping up really in New York, isn't it, but how have the

00:04prosecution been seen as doing and what can we expect going forward? Well, the prosecution

00:11really tried to make that case, to connect the dots between Stormy Daniels, the porn star,

00:17the payment that she received, Michael Cohen, who was the lawyer who paid that money,

00:23and the reimbursement because that is really the key to this case. It's the falsifying of

00:29business records in order to cover this reimbursement as legal fees. And the prosecution

00:34for that called 20 witnesses, including those two star witnesses that I mentioned, Stormy Daniels

00:40and Michael Cohen. Michael Cohen really was seen as the key to this case, whether or not the jury

00:48would believe him. So the prosecution really focused on him really connecting those dots.

00:55The defense, on the other hand, calling only two witnesses, they really didn't bother

01:00trying to make their own case or to argue that Donald Trump hadn't done what he was accused of

01:06doing. And that's pretty basic standard procedure for the defense. All they had to do was undermine

01:13the witnesses of the prosecution. And they really went for it when it came to Michael Cohen.

01:18They depicted him as someone who lied, who stole, who was a fraud, who was out to get Donald Trump.

01:23And they are hoping that that will be enough to make their case, to really instill that

01:29reasonable doubt, not in the 12 jurors, just one of them. That would be enough. And that was really

01:35how they tried to do it. We're going to see the closing arguments on Tuesday. That's because

01:40there's a holiday in the U.S. on Monday, Memorial Day. So closing arguments for both sides.

01:46And then the deliberations, which could start as early as Wednesday. And then anyone,

01:51it's anyone's guess how long those deliberations are going to take. But really, the focus and the

01:58key that all legal experts have been pointing to is whether or not those jurors are going to

02:04believe Michael Cohen. Will they believe the defense in how they depicted him and dismissed

02:10his testimony as yet another lie by Michael Cohen? Or will they believe the prosecution

02:17who painted him as, yes, a flawed witness, but one who had firsthand knowledge of what was

02:22going on? And that will likely determine the outcome of the case. But again, as I said,

02:27the chances of a hung jury, meaning that all 12 don't agree on a conviction or a not guilty,

02:33is very likely. And so the key is going to be to see how long the deliberations take,

02:40because if it's pretty quick, chances are it's an agreement. If it takes a few days or maybe

02:46even goes into the next week, that could indicate a possible hung jury.

02:50Of course, for a lot of us watching this, it's fascinating just to hear the individual story.

02:54But what is perhaps a little bit more important is that US presidential election less than six

02:58months ago. Is there any indications at this point how the trial is impacting Trump as he

03:04heads towards that election? Well, Donald Trump keeps repeating,

03:07and he's done so ever since the start of trial and even before that, that this is a politically

03:12motivated trial, that the Democrats are out to get him to sort of shut him out of his run for

03:17the White House. But he has also used this trial as really an important part of his presidential

03:25campaign. He was stuck in court four days a week, except on Wednesdays and the weekends,

03:30but he used the cameras that were there outside of the courtroom to give statements almost daily

03:38at the beginning or at the end or both. He used the trial for fundraising purposes.

03:44You would get email blasts by Donald Trump almost every single day. And he also turned the court

03:51itself or outside of the court as a sort of must-visit political campaign stop, if you will,

03:58both for supporters and for Republican politicians. And it seems to be working,

04:04at least for now, and at least when it comes to fundraising, because that has actually really

04:08worked. Last month, month of April, was the first time in 2024 that the Trump campaign

04:16out-raised the Biden campaign. Trump and the Republican National Committee raising $76 million

04:22in April, Biden and the Democratic National Committee only raising $51 million. Biden

04:29still has a lot more in the bank, but it is an indication that the fundraising prowess of

04:34Donald Trump is working, and it might be a little bit thanks in part to this trial. This trial is

04:41one of four major legal cases for Donald Trump going forward until the November election. It's

04:46seen in what it is about as less significant, potentially, than his role in January 6th,

04:54but it's also probably the only one that's going to be done before the election,

04:59before people stop voting. And that's why it's significant now. It has to be said,

05:04even if he's convicted, it doesn't prevent him from running, doesn't prevent him from winning

05:08and becoming the president. But some polls are showing that maybe it's a little bit of an issue,

05:15possibly, for Donald Trump going down. Among Trump supporters, all sort of polls show that

05:21there are about 15% to 20% of Trump voters who say that they might reconsider their vote for

05:28Trump if he were convicted. It's not a lot, but in a race that might be decided by 50,000,

05:3580,000 votes, it could make the difference. It's all heading towards that election.

05:38Ketavan, thanks very much. Ketavan Gordhisani, our international affairs editor there.

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