- 5/21/2024
Finland's government has proposed a new law that would allow frontier guards to turn away asylum seekers at the border, following a migrant surge that Helsinki said was orchestrated by Russia. Andrew Geddes of the Migration Policy Centre tells FRANCE 24's Mark Owen that the potential for migration to be a destabilising factor in both domestic and international politics is clear, and that fear and concern about migration is one way that influence by hostile powers could be exerted, as well as actual movement.
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00:00 (electronic music)
00:03 The reach of Russian interference in Europe
00:04 has taken another step with the news of Moscow
00:07 turning migrants into a human weapon
00:09 to destabilize neighboring states.
00:11 Finland is the example of this apropos feature.
00:14 Finland's 830 kilometer land border with Russia
00:17 is now officially closed.
00:19 After a sharp influx of migrants last year,
00:21 some 1,300 according to the Finnish border guard data.
00:26 Now Moscow is denying weaponizing migrants.
00:30 Here at France 24, Tom Canetti takes up the story.
00:32 Helsinki has accused Moscow of instrumentalizing migrants
00:37 by sending them across the border,
00:39 an ongoing issue for the right wing government's
00:41 political agenda.
00:43 It now wants to strengthen its powers over migration.
00:46 Although temporary, the proposed law would defy
00:49 some of Finland's human rights responsibilities
00:51 towards asylum seekers.
00:53 But the prime minister says the situation is exceptional
00:56 and Finland will try to respect national and EU rules.
00:59 - We have been working to find a solution
01:01 that respects our EU and international obligations
01:05 as much as possible.
01:07 However, we have seen,
01:10 we see that these obligations leave some margin
01:15 in case of the international, national security.
01:19 We need to put our national security
01:22 and the security of EU countries first.
01:25 - The law would mean only asylum seekers
01:27 who qualify for special protection would be let in.
01:30 Those could include women and children
01:32 or people with disability,
01:34 and their eligibility would be dependent
01:36 on guards' assessment on the border.
01:38 Those who don't qualify would be expelled
01:40 in the first instance by verbal order,
01:42 then by force if necessary.
01:44 Finland closed its land border crossings
01:46 with Russia last December after a surge of migrants.
01:50 It extended the closure several times
01:51 before announcing in April
01:53 that it would remain shut indefinitely.
01:55 Relations between the two countries have worsened
01:58 since Finland joined NATO last year
02:00 following the invasion of Ukraine.
02:03 Tom Connetty with that report.
02:04 Let's go straight to Andrew Geddes
02:05 who's from the Migration Policy Centre joining us live.
02:07 Andrew, thank you for being with us on France 24.
02:10 What's your take on the situation
02:11 we've just described there in our report?
02:14 - Well, what I think we're seeing is the potential
02:17 for migration to be a destabilising factor
02:20 in both domestic and international politics.
02:22 So we're in the run-up to European Parliament elections.
02:24 We know that migration is increasingly important
02:27 across the European Union.
02:28 Could well determine people's vote.
02:31 And I suspect both the kind of fear or concern
02:33 about migration is one way that influence
02:36 by hostile powers could be exerted
02:39 as well as actual movement.
02:41 So I think around this story is both the concern
02:45 and fear that can be whipped up
02:48 by the potential for migration.
02:52 And of course, also the very real issues
02:53 that we see in the border.
02:55 So this has been quite a significant EU concern.
02:58 And only recently, EU member states did agree
03:02 on a measure, a legal measure
03:03 for what they call the instrumentalisation of migration
03:06 or what could also be called the weaponisation of migration.
03:10 But that's unlikely to take effect for a couple of years.
03:13 - In terms of Moscow, the Kremlin's denial
03:16 of instrumentalisation or weaponisation of migrants,
03:20 are we being naive if we believe that?
03:23 - Well, we have to look at the track record.
03:27 We know that there were tensions at the border
03:31 between Belarus and Poland.
03:33 So, and we know that Belarus is essentially very likely
03:38 to be pursuing the interests of Russia.
03:42 We also know that Russia has a keen interest
03:46 in the outcomes of European elections
03:49 and in European politics.
03:51 And we also know that it's been associated
03:53 with campaigns of disinformation and misinformation.
03:56 So as I said a few moments ago,
03:59 I think that both the concern that these kind of issues
04:01 can whip up amongst the general public,
04:04 as well as what probably are in the great scheme
04:06 of things, relatively small numbers of people at the borders.
04:09 But I think that the Russians would be aware
04:14 of the potential for migration to be a destabilising issue.
04:18 - Indeed, and obviously it plays into the kind of policies,
04:21 the kind of tract that you hear from the mouths
04:25 of the far right across Europe.
04:26 - Well, I think that's an issue that external observers
04:33 of European politics will be very aware.
04:38 We know that the importance of a migration issue
04:42 has been increasing across the EU.
04:44 And if it increases importance,
04:45 then radical right and populist anti-immigration parties
04:48 are likely to do well.
04:50 We also know that some believers of those parties
04:52 are more likely to be pro-Russian.
04:54 So there have been reports over a number of years
04:58 of ties between radical right and far right parties
05:01 and Russia, some of which have been contested,
05:04 but it's certainly been an issue and allegations
05:07 have been present for a number of years.
05:11 - Indeed, far right national rally,
05:13 or before that, National Front of France
05:14 had a debt of some 6 million euros to Russia,
05:17 which it has since paid back to a bank
05:19 close to Vladimir Putin, just clarifying that one.
05:22 But there are people like Viktor Orban of Hungary,
05:24 who openly is a supporter of Vladimir Putin
05:27 and would equally throw back every migrant that turns up.
05:31 One of these issues has been countries in Europe
05:33 pushing back migrants rather than accepting.
05:35 This is a big issue.
05:37 What can the EU do to help this situation?
05:40 - Well, what the EU has done,
05:43 and this has been over the last few months,
05:44 has reached agreement on 10 legislative measures,
05:47 which form what it calls the Pact on Migration and Asylum.
05:52 And this was seen as a really significant development
05:54 by EU leaders, trying to put in place common procedures
05:57 at European borders, and also trying to put in place measures
06:01 to share responsibility between member states.
06:05 So these legislative measures,
06:06 there's political agreement on them,
06:08 but they now need to be implemented.
06:10 And I think there's going to be tension
06:12 around implementation because one of the leaders
06:14 you just referred to, Viktor Orban,
06:16 has made it very clear that he's absolutely opposed
06:19 to the sharing of responsibility.
06:22 If that means relocating asylum applicants
06:24 around the European Union, he's made it clear
06:26 that he would not participate in those kind of schemes.
06:29 So while we do have political agreement,
06:31 there is still tension between member states,
06:34 which I think will affect the implementation
06:37 of these measures.
06:38 - Can I take you back to the Finnish border?
06:40 830 kilometres, closed in December.
06:42 One wonders how migrants actually get that far north.
06:47 I know obviously where there's a will, there's a way,
06:48 and where there's desperation,
06:49 people will do things that need to be done.
06:52 Is there any sense that Russia's been helping
06:53 the migrants to get there?
06:55 - Well, I think all we can go on at this stage is reports.
06:58 And so there is our reports that people have been
07:02 facilitated in their journeys towards the border,
07:04 as was also the case in Belarus.
07:06 We don't have confirmation of that, but there are reports.
07:09 And obviously it's very difficult to corroborate
07:11 these reports because of the situation in Russia
07:13 and the restrictions that would be.
07:15 I think what we could say at this stage is there would be
07:19 significant suspicions, precisely for the reasons
07:21 that you mentioned, the distances involved.
07:24 - Indeed, and what you're saying reinforces something
07:27 from a source that I cannot name,
07:28 but it is a Syrian refugee who told me that her husband
07:31 had made her way to the border under those circumstances,
07:34 aided and abetted by the authorities within the country.
07:37 So you're very much underlining
07:39 what we thought was happening.
07:41 Russia's influence, though, Andrea,
07:43 and you've highlighted this very clearly,
07:46 is massive and it's very insidious the way it is getting
07:51 inside people's brains in many ways via the internet.
07:54 In places like Africa, though, it's far more about presence
07:57 and about enforcing things.
07:59 I'm thinking of presence in places like Mali, Burkina Faso,
08:02 where there are military junta that have called in,
08:05 say, the Wagner mercenaries to, in their view,
08:09 help them sort out the country and secure the country.
08:11 But in fact, it's probably pushing more people to leave
08:13 in some way, shape, or form.
08:15 And also the issue recently in Tunisia,
08:17 where Tunisia was due to sign an accord with Italy,
08:21 the so-called Amate Plan, which Giorgio Moloney
08:24 had been negotiating on four separate visits to Tunisia.
08:27 And all of a sudden, Tunisia's president doesn't about turn
08:30 and signs up with Russia in some shape or form.
08:33 This kind of thing is causing many, many problems,
08:36 which are all leading towards more people coming to Europe.
08:39 - Well, I think it's, when we,
08:44 this was kind of debate about migration in Africa,
08:47 it's, as you rightly point out, it's hugely significant.
08:50 And there are significant tensions between external powers
08:55 intervening in African politics.
08:57 So if we rewind a little bit and look at some of the
09:01 developments in sub-Saharan Africa,
09:03 as well as the developments we referred to in Tunisia,
09:05 there are already tensions with EU leaders.
09:07 So I think African governments have not been happy
09:10 with the direction of travel of EU policy.
09:13 There's been some opposition to domestic politics
09:16 in African countries, for them being seen as kind of merely
09:19 kind of tools or servants of EU policy.
09:22 And so it's, there were significant problems
09:26 with the relationships already.
09:28 But as you, as you write, as you, as you point out now,
09:31 Europe is on the back foot in African countries.
09:34 There's been significant government changes
09:35 which have undermined the ability of the EU member states
09:38 to achieve what it sees as its objectives in Africa.
09:42 And we've already experienced allegations that migration,
09:47 migrants are being moved towards the European Union.
09:50 Again, I think that could be in a sense that the fear
09:54 or concern about such movement can also be functional
09:57 and can play a part in stirring up concern
09:59 in European countries.
10:01 So I think that we're seeing on your southern borders,
10:04 perhaps on a much bigger scale,
10:06 some of the similar issues we're seeing
10:07 on the Finnish border.
10:09 - And all this of course has been put into a framework
10:12 by what happened with the Syrian war
10:14 and the number of migrants that came from Syria
10:16 because of that, from 2011 onwards,
10:19 some 3 million, depending on whose estimate you read,
10:22 your figures I'm sure are far more accurate
10:23 than the ones I'm kind of quoting.
10:26 Has the Ukraine war had a similar effect,
10:28 a different proportion, but a similar effect?
10:31 - On attitudes of-
10:36 - On attitudes, on people coming into Europe,
10:38 on the way people are regarded?
10:40 - Well, I think that's a really interesting point
10:43 because what we've done, we looked into this
10:45 in quite a lot of detail over the last couple of years,
10:47 and you would see that across the European Union,
10:49 attitudes to displace Ukrainians have been quite favourable.
10:52 That doesn't mean there's been a similarly favourable
10:55 attitude to displace people and refugees
10:57 from other parts of the world.
10:59 In fact, attitudes seem to have hardened towards refugees
11:02 and displaced people from other parts of the world.
11:04 So the Ukrainian displacement has generally been,
11:07 well, people from who have been displaced
11:11 have been quite strongly supported
11:12 and measures were put in place immediately
11:14 under what was called a temporary protection directive
11:17 to give them quite extensive rights.
11:19 No other displaced group has received similar treatment.
11:22 So I think there is quite a strong distinction
11:25 between what happened in response to large scale
11:28 Ukrainian displacement, around 5 million people so far
11:32 have been displaced to EU member states.
11:34 And as you say, displacement from Syria,
11:36 where similar kinds of protections and rights
11:39 were not offered.
11:40 - Indeed, and that is a large discrepancy
11:44 to take into account.
11:45 The situation as we see it, you pointed out earlier, Andrew,
11:48 about the 10 point pact on asylum that the EU put together.
11:52 Finland though, and we heard from Prime Minister Orpo
11:56 just earlier speaking in our report,
11:59 calling for the EU to act further.
12:01 What do you think the EU could do?
12:03 I mean, it sounds to me from what you just pointed out,
12:05 there's a 10 point plan there, it's in place.
12:07 It's a question of sharing things together.
12:09 Some countries don't want to join in,
12:10 others are happy to do so.
12:12 What could the EU do?
12:14 - Well, I think it's now assembled for itself
12:18 after a lot of internal debate, a lot of argument,
12:20 a lot of disagreement.
12:21 It has what you could call a toolkit.
12:23 So it has provisions which would allow
12:26 for the relocation of asylum applicants,
12:29 and it also has provisions for financial solidarity.
12:31 It all has also put in place what it referred to as crisis
12:35 or crisis-related measures, which would allow it
12:39 to introduce more severe measures at the border
12:42 that your report referred to,
12:43 where quicker decisions could be made
12:46 and people could be detained at the border
12:48 for longer periods of time,
12:49 and only those who are particularly vulnerable
12:51 are allowed to move onto the territory of the state
12:53 they're trying to enter.
12:55 So I think the EU is assembling for itself
12:57 a kind of toolbox of measures which are designed effectively
13:01 to respond to situations of instrumentalization or crisis,
13:06 and are also supposed to allow member states
13:10 to kind of step up and share responsibility.
13:13 And as you say, there are some member states
13:16 who are fully willing to do that,
13:18 and other member states who are strongly opposed to it.
13:21 The ones who are strongly opposed are a smaller number,
13:24 and Hungary is probably the most vocal,
13:26 but they're not the only member state
13:27 that would be unhappy or sceptical
13:30 about these kind of solidarity measures.
13:33 - Andrew Geddes of the Migration Policy Centre.
13:35 We need to leave it there.
13:36 Thank you very much for your time, sir.
13:37 We appreciate your willingness to answer all the questions
13:40 and to give us your sense of how things are.
13:41 Thank you very much, Andrew Geddes there
13:42 from the Migration Policy Centre, our guest for Apropos.
13:46 We take a short break.
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