Ukraine braces for heavy battles as Putin says Russia carving out 'buffer zone''

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00:00 For more, we can speak to Alexandra Filipenko, a political analyst joining us from Vilnius.

00:04 Hello to you, Alexandra.

00:05 On the one hand, we have Ukraine's president saying morale is low, that there are not enough

00:11 troops.

00:12 On the other hand, we have Vladimir Putin, who says he just wants to create a buffer zone.

00:16 Given these public declarations from Ukraine's president, is there a risk that Russia might try

00:23 to push further into Ukraine rather than just creating a buffer zone?

00:28 It seems like Russia wants to push further because, of course, President Putin many times

00:34 have said that Russia has no plans to take Ukrainian cities.

00:39 At the beginning of the war, just a day before the war started, the full-scale invasion started

00:46 in 2022.

00:48 President Putin said that Russia has no plans to take Ukrainian territory.

00:53 It only wants to free some territory on the eastern part of Ukraine.

00:58 So now President Putin is saying that Russia has no plans to take Kharkiv as of today.

01:04 That's what he said when he was in Beijing.

01:07 So maybe we should take note of that as of today.

01:12 They really want to create this so-called buffer zone, or as they call it, sanitary

01:18 zone, in response to the shelling of Belgorod region, Russian city of Belgorod, by the Ukrainian

01:25 armed forces.

01:26 But if Russia can move forward, most probably they will take this opportunity to move forward,

01:33 especially since in that exact interview, President Zelensky said that now Ukraine only

01:39 has about 25 percent of what Ukraine needs to defend its territory.

01:44 So Russia knows it, and if Russia knows it, probably they will try to push forward.

01:49 Yeah.

01:50 And if Ukraine is outgunned and outmanned, what can it do to try to slow the Russian advance?

01:56 First of all, Ukraine needs the help of Western allies, of course, that help from the United

02:03 States.

02:04 And they need it as fast as possible in order to stop Russian offensive.

02:09 Of course, also one of the opportunities are talks with the Russian side.

02:14 But we know that President Putin also in that interview, while his trip to China, he said

02:21 that the Istanbul agreements must be the basis for negotiation process on Ukraine, and that

02:27 Russia, according to President Putin, is ready for negotiations.

02:32 And according, again, to President Putin, the attempt to inflict a strategic defeat

02:37 on the battlefield is failing.

02:39 So Russia will not tolerate an attempt to impose an ultimatum or something that Ukrainian,

02:46 how Ukraine sees the end of the war.

02:50 But as we know, Russian president has said and repeatedly said that they will not move

02:57 out of the territory that they consider to be Russian territory.

03:01 Even those new regions that are according to this new Russian constitution are a part

03:07 of Russian territory.

03:09 And of course, for Ukraine, for Vladimir Zelensky and for Ukrainian officials, that those

03:15 territories, including Crimea, including Donbas region, are officially Ukrainian territory

03:22 that is, of course, and it's accepted by the international community.

03:27 So maybe a way to move forward is to sit down and talk.

03:31 But now I don't see any way of sitting down at the table because two sides see the end

03:40 of the war in absolutely different ways.

03:43 Yeah.

03:43 And when you listen to Ukrainian troops on the front line, they're desperate for help

03:47 to arrive as quickly as possible.

03:50 There's this new mobilization law going into effect today.

03:55 Do you think it'll make any changes?

03:56 And when would those changes be visible on the battlefield?

04:00 Of course, we must see some changes.

04:03 Not necessarily we will see them soon.

04:06 President Zelensky signed this new decree on mobilization and a decree on mobilization

04:13 of convicts.

04:14 Also, what we've been seeing in Russia also now some there's big difference in Ukraine,

04:21 only some categories of convicts and prisoners in Ukraine will be able to voluntarily go

04:27 and serve in the army only during martial law and eligible are only those who have committed

04:34 offenses of light and medium severity and those who have no more than three years left

04:39 before the end of their sentence.

04:42 It is a big difference in comparison to Russia, because we are seeing on Russian front lines

04:47 that those who are going to fight for Russia, those convicts, those Russian convicts are

04:52 those who are supposed to be in prison for 10 or more than 10 years.

04:56 So those prisoners, if they agree to sign a contract, Ukrainian Justice Ministry said

05:01 earlier that there will be potentially 10,000 to 20,000 convicts in Ukraine who could be

05:08 mobilized for that contract service.

05:10 But probably we will see them only around autumn, because, again, in comparison to Russia,

05:18 there is big difference.

05:19 They can be granted parole, but final decision can only be made by the court.

05:24 In Russia, prisoners sign a contract and they go to the front lines.

05:28 In Ukraine, this won't work this way.

05:30 In that interview, the Ukrainian president also repeated pleased to have the West's

05:36 air defense fighter jet, something he's made many calls for, and yet his allies abroad

05:43 dragging their feet on that.

05:44 Do you think they're going to get any closer to maybe offering that kind of help as Russia

05:49 makes this push and possibly, as Zelensky said, maybe even a second wave?

05:53 There are possibilities of a few waves of Russian offensive.

05:59 And, of course, Ukraine needs that help, need every, any kind of help that Ukraine can get.

06:07 But it looks like European leaders are now moving more towards the idea of a ceasefire

06:14 or more towards the idea of somehow coming to the table and negotiating.

06:20 So it looks like they will push more in that side.

06:24 But at the same time, in order not to let Ukraine lose, of course, they must give more

06:32 help to Ukraine.

06:33 As of now, as we've already said, only 25 percent of the American help arrived in Ukraine.

06:39 So maybe as more arrives, Ukraine will feel stronger and there will be more opportunities

06:46 and more possibilities to stop Russian offensive.

06:49 And so that's how maybe Ukraine will not need that much help from the European allies.

06:55 Major NATO anniversary coming up in a few more weeks.

07:00 Do you think Vladimir Putin wants to send a big message before then?

07:04 President Putin always wants to send a big message.

07:08 And I think the visit to China is, of course, that big message that President Putin wanted

07:14 to send, because if we look at the agreements that were signed in China, there was nothing

07:21 serious, everything about agriculture, something about tourism, media cooperation, nothing

07:27 about military cooperation, strategic cooperation or things like that.

07:31 But if we look at the photographs, at the videos, how Russian delegation was met in

07:38 Beijing and what they were doing, how long they were staying, what a huge group of Russian

07:43 governmental officials was there.

07:45 We can see that this is a show.

07:48 This is a show and most probably not for Russian audiences, but for European audiences, for

07:54 Europeans and Americans to see that Russia and China work together.

07:59 But this is actually just an act, because if we look at the pictures, yes, they are

08:03 impressive.

08:04 But let's look at the documents.

08:06 The documents that were signed are just words.

08:09 There is no exact plan, no exact plans, no exact agreements.

08:14 Those agreements are not in the strategic or military field.

08:19 So this, I think that was the show that President Putin wanted to put before the anniversary

08:26 and before the meeting of collective West, as Putin puts it.

08:31 Yeah, so some doubts about how deep that no limits friendship really runs.

08:36 Alexandra, thank you for your time.

08:37 Alexandra Filippenko speaking to us from Vilnius.

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