'Trump does have a problem with independents, with non-Republican voters'

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00:00 U.S. aid for Ukraine is still stuck in Congress after Republicans rejected a bipartisan bill

00:05 that included $60 billion for Ukraine, as well as funding for Israel and border security.

00:12 This after former President Donald Trump urged Republicans to reject any compromise over

00:17 the U.S.-Mexico border.

00:19 Donald Trump, who is certain to win all of Nevada's 26 delegates this Thursday when voters

00:26 go to caucus since his only rival Nikki Haley has refused to be on that ballot after Republicans

00:32 changed some of the primary rules.

00:34 Now to talk more about the U.S. presidential race, I'm joined by Jordan Cash, assistant

00:40 professor of political science at Michigan State University.

00:44 Jordan, thanks for being with us.

00:46 I'm going to start first with this Nevada primary versus Nevada caucus.

00:52 Haley was on the primary ballot.

00:54 Trump was on is on the caucus ballot, but Haley lost even without Trump on the ballot.

01:00 So what does that say about her race and about her chances of really pushing it through at

01:07 least to the South Carolina primary on February 24th?

01:11 Well, it certainly doesn't say anything good about her chances and about how things are

01:16 going to proceed.

01:17 Haley was already having a tough time even before the Nevada caucuses.

01:23 She really has been just been hanging on until she gets to South Carolina.

01:27 It I think emphasizes how difficult of a road she has to try to get the nomination.

01:33 And I think, again, signals that this primary is all but over.

01:37 And we'll have to see what happens when Haley gets to South Carolina.

01:40 But based on the polling so far and the demographics of South Carolina and the states to follow,

01:45 it looks very unlikely that she'll be able to overcome her deficit at this point.

01:50 So as you were saying, basically, Trump is cruising towards the GOP nomination.

01:58 But what about his chances in the general election?

02:01 Of course, there was the New Hampshire primary where he won, but Haley did her best score,

02:07 if you will.

02:08 And it started showing possibly some of what could be called maybe weaknesses in the general

02:14 election.

02:15 What did you make of the results and of the details of the results in New Hampshire?

02:20 Yeah, I think you're right that it reveals some weaknesses.

02:23 Trump does have a problem with independence with non-Republican voters and with some Republican

02:28 voters who just may be tired of Trump at this point.

02:32 This will be his third time as the Republican nominee, assuming things proceed as they look

02:36 like they're going to.

02:38 So that's something that the Trump campaign is going to have to focus on going into November,

02:42 how to get those independents back, how to get all Republicans to coalesce behind him.

02:46 And if he can pick off some Democrats as well.

02:49 Now, that being said, there have been some recent polls showing that Trump is actually

02:53 doing fairly well, especially in swing states, swing states like where I'm at, Michigan,

02:59 Georgia, Arizona, where he's running ahead of Joe Biden by more than a few points.

03:05 So right now, he's actually looking to be in a fairly good spot.

03:09 But of course, we're still nine months away.

03:12 So a lot could change between now and then.

03:14 And a lot can change and possibly could start tomorrow because the Supreme Court will be

03:19 hearing arguments in the Colorado case.

03:23 That's to determine whether or not Colorado was allowed, was right in removing him from

03:29 the ballot.

03:30 What can come out of this decision that will take some time to come in from the Supreme

03:35 Court?

03:37 So there are a couple of things that could come out.

03:39 One possibility is, of course, the Supreme Court strikes down the Colorado court's ruling,

03:44 says that they can't ban Trump from the ballot, which would also have the effect of striking

03:49 down a decision by the main secretary of state who also removed Trump from the ballot.

03:55 So that's one possibility.

03:58 Most commentators and scholars think that's the most likely outcome is that the Supreme

04:01 Court will strike this down.

04:04 The other possibility, of course, is that they uphold the Colorado decision and uphold

04:09 the main decision and allow states to strike Trump from the ballot based on the 14th Amendment

04:14 to the Constitution.

04:17 If that would happen, then it's kind of all bets are off.

04:20 Some states have already said that Trump can be on the ballot.

04:22 They've refused to follow Colorado in making this move.

04:26 But it's hard to say if the Supreme Court would uphold the Colorado decision, if more

04:30 states would follow their lead.

04:32 And it would make the general election very messy and possibly require the Republican

04:37 Party to reconsider how they're going to do this, because obviously your best chance to

04:42 win is if your nominee is on the ballot in all 50 states.

04:45 And to have your nominee not on the ballot just poses some real questions.

04:50 It also, I think, creates some possible tensions among voters.

04:54 If you have a large segment of voters who would support Trump, who now just can't because

05:00 he's not on the ballot, that raises some pretty hairy questions that I'm not sure the Supreme

05:05 Court really wants to get into.

05:07 Jordan Cash, thank you so much for your analysis.

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