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Rakhen Nazar Us Par Jo Rakhe Nazar Se Ojhal, Kiya Hai Survivor Bias Jaane Haroon Rafiq Se
ARY NEWS
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9/29/2023
Rakhen Nazar Us Par Jo Rakhe Nazar Se Ojhal, Kiya Hai Survivor Bias Jaane Haroon Rafiq Se
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00:00
"Be careful, be careful."
00:03
"Be careful, be careful."
00:08
"Be careful, be careful."
00:12
Welcome back, viewers.
00:13
Now, our segment is called 'Jahan-e-Danish'.
00:15
- Yes! - Sir!
00:17
- Really? - I don't know why 'Jahan-e-Danish'
00:19
has come to this earth.
00:21
In 'Jahan-e-Danish',
00:22
the thing I want to talk about today is
00:26
that there is a thing in the world
00:28
which is called 'Survivor's Bias'.
00:30
- What does it mean? - It means
00:32
that we only see what we can see.
00:37
We never see what we can't see.
00:40
How can we see what we can't see?
00:42
That's the question.
00:44
The fact is that whenever we take decisions in life
00:48
about anything,
00:49
about business, about relationships,
00:52
about friendships and other things,
00:55
we always keep in mind
00:59
what we can see.
01:00
- Yes. - Your question is pertinent.
01:03
How can we see what we can't see?
01:06
For example, you know that there is something behind a wall.
01:10
- Yes. - Until you know that,
01:12
don't take a decision about that wall.
01:15
Let me explain it to you in another way.
01:16
People say that people look at the envelope
01:19
and guess the content of the letter.
01:21
- Yes. - You shouldn't do that.
01:23
You should read what is not written in the letter.
01:26
- Oh. - Let me give you another example.
01:28
Often, when someone asks you,
01:31
your friend, your close relative, your brother,
01:34
"How are you?"
01:35
We formally say, "I am fine."
01:37
- Actually, he is not asking you. - Yes.
01:39
"How are you?"
01:41
He is telling you that he loves you.
01:43
- Yes. - Wow.
01:44
When a friend of yours comes and hugs you
01:47
and says, "Irza, I kept thinking about you last night."
01:50
She is not saying this.
01:52
She is saying that she loves you so much
01:55
that when you are worried, I am worried too.
01:57
But I am sorry, sir. I know a little about this.
01:59
Now, people have taken out the intention
02:02
that when I ask someone,
02:05
"How are you?"
02:07
He immediately thinks that he needs something.
02:09
He needs some work or money.
02:12
He is asking about the situation.
02:14
- "Is there anything?" - Yes.
02:16
He says that there is no situation.
02:17
- He is asking about work. - Yes.
02:20
"I have been unemployed for two months."
02:22
He brings his salary at night.
02:24
He says that he is a pauper.
02:26
Mr. Agar, you are one of those people.
02:29
You are saying this.
02:30
- This is about people. - Yes.
02:35
In business, we always see what is visible.
02:39
I will clarify this.
02:41
Whenever you take business decisions,
02:43
you see what is not visible.
02:44
For example, in 1940, when the war was going on,
02:48
America made a team of people
02:51
who knew statistics and mathematics.
02:55
They were asked to tell them
02:58
what the war figures were saying.
03:02
How can we overpower our enemy?
03:04
- Yes. - During this time, an incident happened.
03:07
All the ships that came back to Germany after bombardment,
03:11
they used to see where they were shot.
03:14
They collected the data of many ships.
03:18
After collecting the data of many ships,
03:19
they made a map of the ships.
03:22
They told that on both the wings,
03:24
tail and fuel tank,
03:27
there were the most number of bullets.
03:29
They told them to arm the ships
03:32
in these three or four places
03:34
so that the ship is safe.
03:35
There was a mathematician named Abraham Wald.
03:40
He went ahead and said that we should never make this mistake.
03:43
We should never arm the ship from this place.
03:45
He said that the place where the bullets were more.
03:46
They said that he has lost his mind.
03:49
- The place where the bullets were more. - Yes.
03:51
He said that they could see the ships
03:54
and that they came back.
03:56
So, it means that if the bullets were fired here,
03:59
the ships would come back.
04:01
- Wow! - That's amazing.
04:03
They should arm the ships in such a place
04:06
so that the ships don't come back.
04:07
- Yes. - Wow!
04:08
So, they left the places
04:10
where the bullets were not fired.
04:14
They armed the ships.
04:15
It's not based on probabilities, it's based on statistics.
04:18
Exactly.
04:19
Another example is the restaurants.
04:21
You see that there are many restaurants.
04:24
There are so many that when a rich man goes to eat,
04:26
he says that he should run a restaurant.
04:28
- Yes. - Yes.
04:29
You only see the ones that are running.
04:32
Because in the world, there are many restaurants.
04:35
They don't run for three years.
04:37
They close within three years.
04:39
- I see. - If a restaurant runs for five to seven years,
04:43
then it becomes a big, successful restaurant.
04:47
If you count that,
04:49
it's in lakhs.
04:50
You say that you will never run a restaurant.
04:53
- Yes. - This is called survivor bias.
04:56
You only see the successful ones.
04:58
We can directly link the survivor bias
05:01
with critical thinking.
05:03
- Absolutely. - There are many countries
05:05
that have the concept of the 10th man.
05:07
Hollywood has named it in a way.
05:09
But the concept is that it's a very obvious thing.
05:12
Nine people say that it will happen.
05:15
So, it's the responsibility of the 10th man
05:18
to think the opposite of it.
05:19
And to give all the details about it.
05:21
Thank God.
05:23
This is the first thing that came without a film.
05:25
No, Mr. Sarnana. You didn't say that.
05:28
The matter started with Hollywood.
05:29
Hollywood only makes films.
05:31
- Hollywood only makes films. - Only films.
05:33
What else?
05:34
Why didn't they name it?
05:37
They said Hollywood. All the films came in that.
05:39
In any case, the society that wants to progress
05:41
should see everything from all the aspects of the world.
05:44
- Only then it can survive. - Wow.
05:45
This is absolutely right.
05:47
Now people think that we become comedians
05:53
after seeing the salaries of Agha Majid and Salim Albela.
05:55
Yes.
05:56
Okay. People who think..
05:57
I often think, Irza,
06:00
that when I came to this field, I saw many people
06:03
who don't have this field.
06:06
- Yes. - Yes.
06:07
You don't have acting, comedy, punch, timing.
06:13
And I don't say this. I am not discouraging anyone.
06:16
But if you have worked hard for 10-15 years
06:19
and still you didn't go above 1%..
06:22
- I didn't. - ..then maybe nature
06:25
- has kept something else in you. - Yes.
06:27
But Mr. Haroon, you told Amanat so many things
06:30
that he didn't even eat here.
06:31
I am learning from you. I have started working.
06:35
Many people meet me and directly say,
06:38
"We want to do an ARY."
06:40
- Direct. - Okay.
06:42
They say, "Take us. We don't have any process."
06:45
Look, they think that your ARY has so much power
06:50
that they can't take you out.
06:52
Anyway, there are many people.
06:58
I say, those who are trying their luck, may God bless them.
07:02
- Amen. - Amen.
07:04
It's a sad thing that many homes have been destroyed.
07:09
People have lost their children.
07:11
The wife has left the house.
07:14
What was the 'Bain' in this?
07:15
- Sir, in Farsi, it's called 'Afsoz'. - 'Tab tab'.
07:17
But I think it's not necessary that everyone does comedy in this field.
07:24
Many times, you have to be the pillar of love.
07:26
- Yes. - Exactly.
07:27
You have to present yourself so that you can be the comedy.
07:31
Mr. Agha, how many times have you been the pillar of love?
07:34
Sir, there is no rocket science for that.
07:38
I don't have to be the pillar of love.
07:40
- It should be. - Exactly.
07:41
When you become the pillar of love on this
07:44
you will surely get a few punches.
07:47
You have to shoot the arrow that will pierce your heart.
07:51
- Wow. - Wow.
07:53
Amazing.
07:54
Sir, Mr. Aman used to say, "May God bless you."
07:56
Did Mr. Aman meet you?
07:58
Yes, sir. We are from the same locality.
08:00
Yes. We are from the same area.
08:03
Okay. He was a very humble man.
08:05
- He used to meet you. - Yes.
08:06
Sir, he used to say, "It's not necessary that everyone is the best man."
08:09
How do you say that?
08:11
Didn't you think about it?
08:13
Didn't you think about this sentence?
08:14
He used to say, "It's not necessary that everyone is the best man."
08:19
Not the best man, but the batsman.
08:24
We have a lot of money.
08:25
- We have spent it all. - Okay.
08:27
- I went to Haroon sir. - Yes.
08:29
He has a transfer in the entire locality.
08:32
So what?
08:33
I think he has a zero in the 500th ward.
08:35
Mr. Aman was in this field.
08:42
- But he was a great man. - Amazing.
08:45
- Amazing. - Amazing.
08:46
You will be surprised that once Mr. Aman came to me.
08:50
- May God bless him. - Amen.
08:52
He came and said that he wants to produce a drama in Faisalabad.
08:57
And I will need this much money for that.
09:00
I need a producer.
09:02
And it's possible, he said it himself,
09:04
that this drama will flop.
09:06
But if it flops,
09:08
I will pay the entire amount to that person.
09:13
Otherwise, we will distribute the profit.
09:16
I introduced him to a person.
09:18
And I still...
09:19
I mean, we can only pray for him.
09:22
I still remember that the drama flopped.
09:25
It didn't work.
09:26
And he had already paid all the artists and actors.
09:31
He came to my house.
09:32
And he called that person.
09:34
And he paid the entire amount.
09:37
And he said,
09:38
I have found out in these three days
09:41
that this drama will flop.
09:43
You can go and collect your money.
09:44
- Wow. - Wow.
09:47
Viewers, this was today's show.
09:49
We will meet you in the next show.
09:51
Take care.
09:53
Goodbye.
09:54
"Be careful."
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9:32
|
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