Russia has 'clearly been unable, unwilling to deter Baku' from regaining control of Nagorno-Karabakh

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00:00 so much for joining us. First of all, what's your reaction to the news at the ceasefire?

00:04 And just tell us a bit more about how you think it was reached.

00:06 ... offensive where basically Baku's military action in 24 hours, it arrives at a kind of

00:17 surrender of the de facto authorities. So they call it a ceasefire, but really Baku has achieved

00:22 what it wanted, which was an agreement to start talks with local authorities on joining

00:29 Azerbaijan and integrating inside Azerbaijan and the disbanding of local security forces.

00:36 Okay. I mean, do you think it's going to draw a line once and for all under this

00:41 long running, long standing issue that dates back to the breakup of the Soviet Union?

00:47 I mean, certainly there's still a huge risk of escalation along the international border

00:54 with Armenia, but within Nagorno-Karabakh itself, the story is far from over. There is a dire

01:00 humanitarian situation there after almost nine months of blockade of the region and how Baku

01:06 manages the situation going forward is going to show whether there's a sustainable option of peace

01:10 or not. It really has to address the concerns of residents there. There's 120,000 residents there.

01:18 I mean, it has to avoid an exodus and really allow for humanitarian access and a real dialogue with

01:25 people there. I mean, it's very much perceived as being a win for Azerbaijan, a perceived

01:32 humiliation for Armenia. I mean, is that an oversimplification of the facts, do you think?

01:38 I mean, I think in the words of one Russian diplomat that my team spoke to earlier today,

01:47 "Adiyev really got everything he wanted." There have been peace talks separately between

01:52 Azerbaijan and Armenia, ongoing, facilitated by Moscow, Washington, and Brussels since

01:58 Azerbaijan's victory in the 2020 war. And those are already going to likely continue unless there's

02:10 a change of leadership in Armenia. But certainly with respect to Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia wasn't

02:15 able, didn't have the strength to fight this time.

02:20 And do you think if the Armenian Prime Minister played his cards differently and pivoted slightly

02:25 less to the West, he might have got more support from Russia and a better outcome for

02:32 the 120,000 people who live in Nagorno-Karabakh?

02:35 I don't, I mean, I think the situation has been years in the making. The map was redrawn

02:45 in the second war in the region in 2020, as Azerbaijan retook control of seven adjacent

02:50 territories to Nagorno-Karabakh. It retook control of part of the enclave and talks have been going,

02:56 you know, Armenian forces at that point withdrew and Russian peacekeepers were deployed to the

03:01 region. Russian peacekeepers have been important, but Russia has clearly been unable or unwilling

03:07 to deter a coup in this instance. The relationship between Russia and Armenia is a factor. It

03:13 certainly probably didn't help the situation, but I don't think it's the full picture. Russia's

03:18 influence has been waning for a while since its invasion of Ukraine, certainly.

03:24 And just lastly, where do you think this leaves the balance of power in the region?

03:28 Well, I mean, there are a number of regional players, Baku certainly felt empowered to

03:35 take its action because of backing from Turkey, both now and during the 2020 war.

03:42 Of the other strong regional players are Russia, whom we just spoke about, and Iran, who

03:47 obviously wasn't going to get involved unless it perhaps saw some risk to its interest in the

03:54 region and its relationship with Armenia. So, I mean, Baku is definitely in a position of strength.

04:00 It is now has a responsibility to protect and ensure the safety of citizens in Nagorno-Karabakh.

04:12 That it claims as part of its territory.

04:15 Okay, Elissa de Carbonell at the International Crisis Group. Thank you very much indeed for

04:19 taking the time to speak to us this evening. Thank you.

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