00:00 Well to talk a little more about those reports, I'm pleased to be joined now by Marco Vincenzino
00:06 He's an international affairs commentator and the director of the global strategy project. He joined us from London today. Welcome to the program, sir
00:13 Good afternoon. Can I just ask you first of all what you make of these accusations? Are they credible?
00:20 surprising
00:22 No, it's not surprising at all
00:25 I mean just this is what the public knows and there's a lot going on that the public does not know
00:30 We're not living in a state of war, but I would say we're living in a state of approaching war
00:35 Continuous escalation not just rhetorical but also actions on several sides
00:40 We're looking primarily at the Taiwan Straits, you know would be what what would looks everyone's pointing at is
00:47 Obviously a potential attack on Taiwan, but around that attack would be several other
00:52 Places that would fall subject to the conflict and one of them being particularly Guam
00:56 Guam is and obviously it's a big American military base
00:59 It would play a role in the helping to defend Taiwan, but it also serves as a major communication hub
01:05 What you have is underwater cables
01:07 that connect Asia to the US to communication and
01:11 Australia to the US via Guam and if an attack happens and those cables are cut you'll have a communications breakdown
01:18 And it's not only in another issue. Is that if there were to be
01:22 An attack on US critical infrastructure. It's not just an attack on the US
01:27 It's an attack on the Greater Western Alliance because the economies of the West are all interconnected and being interconnected in that way
01:35 They basically everyone's gonna have an impact. So I think it's just if we don't look at this purely as a China US
01:41 Issue you have to look at it as China and broader Western Alliance and it's important to take that into account
01:48 Indeed and those reports suggest that actually similar similar espionage attacks could be happening in other places around the world
01:56 Beyond the United States. What kind of response do you think we'll see from other governments? I
02:01 Mean just give you one example. Kenya is having difficulties in paying its debt to China and you seeing
02:08 attacks on
02:10 Government agencies within Kenya now whether these been verified or not
02:14 These are reports that are coming out. But this I think these are just examples that using
02:19 Short of going to war is using hacking hacking cyber attacks. They do enough damage
02:26 Although they may not be visible to the human eye
02:29 They have a huge huge impact on the infrastructure of states on the economies of states and the ability of ordinary people to operate
02:36 So this is a very serious issue that we have at hand. That's that's like once again, it's not just the US
02:42 It's the broader Western Alliance and the broader free world
02:44 Indeed your point is well taken that this is a Western China problem rather than just related to the United States
02:51 But clearly the relations between Washington and Beijing are pretty fraught indeed. Do you think this is going to be particularly damaging to that relationship now?
02:59 There's been a lot of damages recently. You had the balloons issue with the Chinese balloons flying over the u.s
03:07 It's this is I think this is just one major step in the continuing deterioration
03:12 Of relations, so I don't see things getting any better
03:15 I actually I see things getting worse and what's happened here and this this is just one episode of a continuing
03:22 Episodes that'll be going on for the foreseeable future
03:25 Indeed and China has denied those allegations. No surprise really, but what can we say about?
03:32 US tactics, do you think on the world stage? Are they particularly different to what we're seeing from China?
03:38 It's a game of defense and offense defense is ensuring that you're going to be covering your critical infrastructure
03:45 So this what was uncovered right now has to serve as a lesson all these lessons
03:51 I have to go into improving on a defensive basis within the broader Western Alliance and then in a sense is constantly
03:58 sharpening your sword in terms of offense and
04:02 counter-counter attacks
04:04 In terms of the within the sit within the cyber security realm, so it's not just a defensive game
04:09 There is an offensive game and obviously that might not much of that you want to share with your own public
04:13 But the idea is also there's also a diplomatic angle to this and the diplomatic angle is that when you find out these things going on
04:20 When possible share it with your public and share it internationally because this does involve ordinary impacts the lives of ordinary people
04:29 Marco Vincenzo, thank you very much indeed sir for your time and your analysis today. Thank you. Thank you
